社會的 財政支出과 所得再分配에 관한 硏究

金鎬彦 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1983 經營經濟 Vol.15 No.1

The Korean economy has been experiencing rapid changes and progresses both in its size and structure since the early 1960's. The priority attention of the economic policy during this period has been paid to mere economic groth. resulting in an income inequality. Such a policy generated a fremendous number of various kinds. The unemployment rate fell down by 4.8% in 1981 from 10% in the early 1960's. Functional and personal distribution of income appeared relatively equitable as compared with other developing and developed countries, measured in terms of the decile distribution ratio and the Gini index of concentration. But the problem of income inequality arose in the middle of 1970's and it seems aggravated nowadays so that a vigorous redistribution policy of income is necessary to rectify the inequality problems in Korea. The purpose of the study is to come up with alternative measures to deal with the problem of income inequality in a more efficient manner. Generally, the fiscal and price policies as an income redistribution policy have many limitations to improve income inequality. Therefore, the more equal income redistribution can only be achieved by social government expenditures. The social government expenditures largely involve three parts: 1) social security expenditure including the public assistance and social insurance expenditures 2) educational expenditure to promote equal opportunity of education 3) housing expenditure to subsidize or promote minimum dwelling standard for the lower-income groups. And So, the social government expenditures can be derived to achieve the equitable income redistribution obzectives.

固定投入係數와 固定投入比率 : 投入·産出模型의 기본 假定과 관련하여 With Attention to the Basic Assumptions of the Input-Output Model

金鎬彦 啓明大學校 社會科學硏究所 1992 한국사회과학연구 Vol.11 No.-

Professor Leontief was awarded a Nobel prize in Economics "for the development of the input-output method and for its application to important economic problems." A comprehensive version of the input output analysis was published in 1951 in the book The Structure of American Economy, 1919-1939: An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis. The major criticism among the assumptions of the input-output model concerns the fixed input coefficients of production function in the open, static input-output model. As originally mentioned by Leontief this assumption implies that "the most rigid type of production function had lo be chosen: the amount of each cost element is assumed to be strictly proportional to the quantity of output." Leontief added that the assumption of fixed coefficients of production function could be justified by the limitations of available statistical data. He also pointed out that empirical investigation alone could reveal how significant disparity between our theoretical scheme and the actual industrial setup actually is. Nevertheless, it is to be regretted that there are many misconceptions and misunderstandings on the exact meaning of the assumption of fixed input coefficients. On the basis of the issues discussed above, the research objectives of the paper are 1) to examine the theoretical background and the basic assumptions on the Leontief's fundamental model and 2) to search for the logical interrelation between fixed input coefficients and fixed input proportions in the shape of the production functions. This article has five main sections. Section 2 outlines the theoretical background of the in-put-output model. Section 3 examines the interrelation between fixed coefficients and fixed proportions. Section 4 indicates the misconceptions occurred in the existing literature on Economics. Section 5 contains a brief summary of this paper and concluding remarks. The major research findings of this study can be summarized as follows. 1) It is true that if the fixed input coefficients are content, then the fixed input proportions are also content. 2) It is also true that if the fixed input coefficients are content, then the proportionality is content. 3) It is convinced that if the proportionality is content, then the fixed input proportions are content. 4) And also, it is not effected that the inverse propositions of 1), 2), and 3) are true.

擴大된 投入·産出模型에서의 家計部門의 役割

金鎬彦 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1991 經營經濟 Vol.24 No.1

By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework. an activity-commodity system can be substantially said to be an extended input-output model. An activity-commodity framework can be expressed as two or more subsystems, and in this case household sectors can be treated as demographic activities and commodities. Assuming that there are two subsystems. the interaction between activities and commodities can be analyzed through the partitioned matrix. Where household sectors are described within an extended input-output model. the economic effects, which are very different from those of household-endogenous input-output model, can be given on the basis of the issues discussed above, the research objectives of this paper are : 1) To examine the role of the household sector in a traditional input-output model and an extended input-output model to compare their different economic effects; and, 2) To explain the interaction and feedback effects between the two subsystems. By combining two models which utilize the advantages of an input-output model and linear programming, a conceptual framework can be developed to solve the problem of resource allocation. The major research findings of this study can be summarized as follows. 1) There are two different ways to deal with the household sector in an input-output model: the first is open and the second is closed with respect to households. The open model assumes that a household is defined as outside of the system because the household is considered to be one of the unstable economic sectors. If a household is treated exogenously, the direct and indirect output requirements can be obtained only through the changes in final demand. Suppose thai a household is a kind of endogenous industry. Then, the direct, indirect, and induced output requirements are calculated, which takes into account both the impact of demand on supply and that of supply on demand. In spite of the merits which obtain the induced output requirements from this approach, there is a problem with this model. Because households have varied consumption patterns,it is unrealistic to treat households as a single row and column. In such a treatment. if a household-endogenous model is used, the consumption coefficients must be revised often to maintain the accuracy of the Leontief inverse. 2) Activity analysis is defined as a method of analyzing any economic transformation in terms of elementary units called activities. It is a comparatively simple matter to compare an input-output model with an activity-commodity framework. Instead of industrial sectors, we refer to industrial activities and industrial commodities. We also substitute gross output and final demand for activity levels and constraints, respectively. Then the activity-commodity framework can be written as equations (3-3) and (3-7). 〔coefficients matrix〕〔activity levels〕 = 〔constraints〕 (3-3) AX = B (3-7) If there is only one activity for each produced commodity and no limitation on primary factors, the Leontief equilibrium system (3-13) may be understood as a special case of the system (3-7), because the Leontief matrix (I-A) can be expressed as a submatrix of the coefficients matrix, A, in activity analysis. 3) An input-output model can handle successfully the problems of capacity limitation of a specific industry and the allocation of fixed resources. Suppose that we wish to employ the entire labor force. Then the total amount of labor available, N, must be added to the input-output equilibrium system. In addition to the limited labor supply, suppose further that the output capacity of industry i is restricted to ?? units, only on the condition that we also wish to fully utilize the production capacity of industry i. In addition to these cases. the input-output method can obtain the set of final goods and services we ought to produce to maintain the full utilization of fixed resources, a case where n producing sectors is equal to m fixed resources. But we can also find many feasible solutions instead of a unique one: cases where an input-output system involves an inequality and n is greater than m. In these cases, we find examples which require the optimization technique of linear programming to solve the problem of choosing among feasible solutions. 4) The interaction between two or more subsystems is effectively described by partitioning the matrix within a generalized input-output framework. By representing a static input-output model by two subsystems. we derive an equation (4-2). which is identical with an equation (3-7) a typical activity analysis framework. Moreover. we specify households in an economic-demographic activity analysis system: this system then has four different submatrices of the coefficients matrix, as shown in figure (Ⅳ-1). The first quadrant, which is a demographic-economic interaction submatrix, contains the household consumption coefficients. Quadrant II is the Leontief (I-A) submatrix, whereas quadrant Ⅲ includes labor demand coefficients expressing the number of workers 'consumed' per unit of gross output for each industrial activity. The fourth quadrant, a demographic interaction submatrix, sets forth the nature of household formation and generation of its labor supply. In conclusion, this paper focuses on the role of the household sector within the conceptual framework of activity analysis. However, further work must be done on the empirical side. Furthermore, an additional research is required, because I am convinced that the fundamental model will become more useful as a tool of economic analysis through modifications and extensions.

接續産業聯關表를 통한 에너지 集約度 變化 推移 分析 (p.35-62) : 1975-1990

金鎬彦(Gim Ho Un) 啓明大學校産業經營硏究所 1998 啓明大學校ㆍ挑山學院大學國際學術세미나 Vol.1998 No.11

레온티에프 逆行列에서의 投入·産出乘數 效果分析에 관한 연구

金鎬彦 계명대학교 국제학연구소 2003 국제학논총 Vol.8 No.-

Input-Output or interindustry analysis, developed by Professor Leontief who received the Nobel Prize in Economic Science in 1973(Leontief, 1936), is widely used as an useful tool in highly developed economies, More recently, a number of developing nations have turned to this powerful technique as the main indicator of policy decisions. One of the more useful analytical techniques derived from the Leontief inverse (I-A) -1 is the concept of impact coefficients. However, to avoid double-counting impacts and overestimation of the importance of a sector's output, the new concept of "net multiplier" (Oosterhaven and Stelder, 2002) accepts sectoral outputs as entries instead of exogenous final demand. This net multiplier is proposed by multiplying the traditional (ordinary, standard) Leontief multiplier by the sectoral final output ratios, that is, fj/ xj. By the way, we found that there was a logical inconsistency in the concept of "new multiplier," i.e., the confusion between the notion of direct and indirect output requirements to support a unit of final demand, cij, and that of direct and indirect input requirements to produce a unit of gross output, rgij. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an alternative concept of the Leontief multiplier with attention to "the general relation" between two different notions of direct and indirect input requirements. The total (direct and indirect) input requirements matrix for a unit of gross output, Гg , can also be applied to supplement the logical inconsistency found in the notion of " new multiplier ."

交易條件 長期趨勢의 統計的 模型設定에 관한 硏究

金鎬彦 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1985 經營經濟 Vol.18 No.1

1. The transition of the computation formula in index numbers of foreign trade (1963∼1984) is given in Table Ⅱ-3. The computation system varied three times irregularly and unsystematically as shown in the below table. Thus such a time series data of index numbers of foreign trade have no continuity over time and so computation system and formula have to be changed very carefully to use them usefully in time series analysis in the future 〈Table Ⅱ-3〉 Transition of the Computation Formula in Index Numbers of Foreign Trade: (1963∼1984) Index Numbers Computation Formula Remarks 1. ·Quantum moving anterior weights (chained) directly Base Year: 1963 Indexes computed through the Laspeyres =100 ·Unit Value computed indirectly by the moving current Execution Period: Indexes weights (1963∼1969) 2. ·Quantum fixed base indexes directly computed through Base Year: 1970 Indexes the Laspeyres =100 · Unit Value computed indirectly by the fixed base Execution Period: Indexes indexes (1970∼1972) 3. · Unit Value computed directly by the moving current Base Year: 1970 Indexes weights (chained) =100 · Quantum computed indirectly by price indexes Execution Period: Indexes (1973∼1977) 4. · Unit Value directly computed through the Paasche Base Year: 1980 Indexes =100 · Quantum indirectly computed Execution Period: Indexes (1978∼1984) 2. The time series fluctuations is decomposed into four components: trend(T), seasonal(S), cyclical(C) and irregular movements(I). I pointed out several methods of finding a trend line. A number of forms of trend lines are used in economics to represent trends. There are a first-degree function, a second-degree parabola, a Gompertz curve, a logistic curve and a moving average method. 3. In general the cyclical movements are analyzed in three different methods: periodgram analysis, correlogram analysis and Persons' basic method. The periodgram analysis has pointed out that the cyclical movements is a variation which is approximately periodic with no fixed period. Thus the method of harmonic analysis is particularly useful in econometric model building. These techniques may also be used for an investigation of the seasonal movements(s) The correlogram analysis is a very important tool for the analysis of time series, which has been developed by H. Wold(1938) and H. T. Davis(1941) for the investigation of stationary discrete stochastic processes. This method is used to the process of moving averages and to the process of linear autoregressive model. These stochastic processes can be distinguished by the correlogram's shape. For moving averages model the correlogram's shape is zero beyond a certain time lag(κ). For the process of autoregressive model the correlogram's shape is a damped sinusoidal oscillation shown in Figure Ⅴ-5. 4. In practical estimation, we give in Table Ⅵ-1 the empirically estimated trend line of terms of trade. 〈Table Ⅵ-1〉 Results of Trend Analysis 1. Commodity Terms of Trade(y₁) y₁= 103.52 + 14.12t₁- 1,47₁²+ 0.39t₁³ (4.62) (0.50) (0.02) : R²= 0.66 2. Income Terms of Trade(y₂) y₂= 27.84 - 16.15t₂+ 2.70t₂²- 0.65t₂³ (7.77) (0.85) (0.03) : R²= 0.97 3. Gross Barter Terms of Trade(y₃) y₃= 34.92 - 5.75t₃+ 1.25₃²- 0.39₃³ (5.26) (0.57) (0.02) : R²= 0.09 * Numbers in parentheses are standard errors and t means time variable.

投入.産出模型에 의한 개별 雇傭乘數의 性格 및 有用性에 관한 硏究

金鎬彦 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1989 經營經濟 Vol.22 No.1

One of the more useful analytical tools induced by Leontief inverse was that of the multiplier. Multipliers are Quantitative measures of the total impact upon output, employment, and income resulting from a liven change in the final demand for goods and services of a particular sector. And also we can classily the concept of input-output multipliers into sectoral multipliers for output, employment and income, and then employment and income multipliers can be divided into many types such as type Ⅰ, type Ⅱ, type Ⅲ, type Ⅳ, and so on. Presented in this paper are the study on the characteristics and effectiveness of each employment multiplier like as Isard-Kuenne method. Moore-Petersen method, Hansen-Tiebout method, and Miernyk method. Individual method for estimating employment multipliers makes differences in preliminary assumptions, specific objectives, regions under study, and regional statistical data available. The study objectives of this paper are : 1) To grasp the characteristics of each employment multiplier which is derived from the different computing methods to reflect the possible economic impact of the space and spacerelated programs on a local economy and 2) To appreciate the economic effectiveness of each employment multiplier in all its aspects to find out the mast useful technique used in regional impact analysis. The research findings of this study can be summarized as follows. 1) The Isard-Kuenne method is a technique for computing employment multipliers used York-Philadelphia industrial region as a result of the expansion of the steel industry in the area. The approach Isard and Kuenne have induced is an ingenious one and must be counted as a valuable complement to the regional impact analysis adopted in local study. But this method is limited in its application to the specialized situation like that ; the method can be used if an up-to-date input-output table is available so that the input requirements for the basic and satellite industry can be obtained. Moreover, even if close estimates of total employ ment in the basic industry had been available at the time of the analysis, there would have been no data on the satellite industries since such industries move into an area only after the basic industry is in operation. 2) The Moore-Petersen method is a more general model designed to provide estimates of total regional employment effects, sector by sector, due to a change in final demand for the output of a particular industry in the legion. This method is based on linear employment production functions and linear consumption functions. The logic behind the linking of typeⅠ arid type Ⅱ employment multipliers is as follows. An initial change in final demand will lead to direct and indirect changes in output requirements, and these lead to the employment changes described by the type I employment multiplier. The change in employment. in turn, leads to a change in income. and hence to a change in consumer demand. The change in consumer expenditures, via the consumption function, which generates changes in final demand sector. Each of these changes sets off the successive rounds which leads to further adjustment in output, employment, income, and consumer demand. By the way, the assumption of a linear and homogeneous consumption function inevitably leads to an overstatement of the induced effects on income, and thus this assumption imparts an upward bias to the type Ⅱ employment and income multipliers. To reduce the upward bias, type Ⅲ multipliers were induced by W. H. Miernyk et al. 3) The Hansen-Tiehout approach can be considered as an another alternative method of deriving employment multipliers. All sales flows were converted to employment, and this implied a type of value-added approach in contrast to the gross output flows traced in a traditional input-output table. The most obvious advantage of the intersectoral flows approach lies in its operational simplicity. Although other approaches may have certain advantages at the conceptual level, the real problem is one of generating the necessary data at a reasonable cost. When employment multipliers forecasts are the unique objective, the simpler and inexpensive rows only method may be adequate. But the chief limitation of the method was that there is no independent check on the output flows. 4) In the Boulder local impact project type Ⅲ employment multipliers were derived from a regional input-output table that had been closed with respect to household sector. Since there is a connection between induced employment changes and induced income changes the multipliers can be computed by an iterative procedure involving the separation of total income changes into population and per capita effects. These employment multipliers are lower than the type Ⅱ employment multipliers developed earlier by Moore-Petersen method. The major innovation of the Boulder study, however, was the development of type Ⅲemployment multipliers, efforts to calculate statistically significant sectoral consumption functions for the Boulder area were not successful, and then this alternative method was derived from a limited information on the regional economy. In conclusion, on the basis of the up-to-date study, there are clearly a number of limitations to utilize these kinds of method. Fortunately, to adjust for the overstatement problem, type 1 and type 2 employment multipliers by Moore-Petersen approach can be considered as more useful multipliers.

接續産業聯關表를 통한 에너지 集約度 變化 推移 分析

金鎬彦(Gim, Ho Un),大英一(번역자) 계명대학교 산학연구소 1996 經營經濟 Vol.29 No.1

接續産業聯關表를 통한 에너지 集約度 變化 推移 分析 : The Case of the Republic of Korea 1975-1990년

金鎬彦 啓明大學校産業經營硏究所 1998 啓明大學校ㆍ挑山學院大學國際學術세미나 Vol.5 No.1

The total energy requirements, sometimes called the energy intensities, are the measure of the dircet and Indirect energy (measured in physical units - for trample, British thermal units) required to produce a unit of each sector's output. This study attempts to compute the energy intensities by the hybrid-units energy input-output modle on the assumption that we make no distinction between the notion of direct and indirect input requirements to produce a unit of output, γ_(g(η))^* and the notion of direct and indirect output requirements to support a unit of final demand, b_ η^* in case of all off-diagonal elements for the convenience of computation. The study objectives of this paper are twofold : (1) To examine into the transition of the changes in energy intensities for the 35 manufacturing sectors estimates by the 1975-1990 Link Input-Output tables on the basis of the hybrid-units, and (2) To execute the decomposition analysis on the sources of the changes in industrial energy use by the central difference equation. The overall effect of the changes in the period 1975-1990 might have three major factors : 1) changes in direct energy intensities, △C ; 2) changes in the structure of final demand, △F^* ; 3) changes in the structure of interindustry trading, △(1-A^*)^-1. The major research findings of this study can be summarized as follows 1) The top three sectors in terms of energy intensities for 1975 and 1990 are iron & steel manufacturing, primary iron and steel products and industrial basic chemicals. 2) The total average percent change in energy intensities from 1975 to 1990 was decreased by 19.7%. 3) The most efficient sectors in energy intensities for the past 15 year are medical and optical instruments, and tobacco products sectors, and the most inefficient sectors for the period are polished grains and seafood produsts sectors. 4) The rate of dependence on energy imports (including primary and secondary energy) measured in Btus steadily increasce from 32.7% in 1975 to 41.9% in 1990. 5) On the basis of the decompostition analysis, the effect of changing final demand over time, △F^*, accounted for 98.4% of the total change in energy use. In contrast, the effect of charging energy intensities, △C, amounted to -0.5%, indicating very low efficiency of energy use in Korea.

經濟統計資料에 나타난 統計的 誤差의 任意性에 관한 硏究

金鎬彦 啓明大學校 産業經營硏究所 1984 經營經濟 Vol.17 No.1

The purpose of the study is to test for randomness of statistical error occurred in eco- nomic statistics by one-sample runs test(small-sample and large-sample approximation), two-samples runs test : Wald-Wolfowitz runs test(small-sample and large-sample approximation), test from the length of runs: Wallis-Moore runs test, and test of the serial correlation coefficient for auto-correlation. The findings are given in Table 6-1. I conclude that in the statistical error statistics of expenditure on GNP and account of gross domestic investment have the randomness shown in Table 6-1. But BOP reveals a non-randomness.