한국의 대(對)러시아 극동지역 경제협력에 관한 연구

박경명 한국국민경제학회 1997 경제연구 Vol.6 No.2

OECD加入時 資本移動自由化 規約에 대한 우리의 對應策

朴敬銘 東亞大學校 經營問題硏究所 1995 經營論叢 Vol.16 No.-

아시아·太平洋經濟協力體(APEC)에 관한 小考

朴敬銘 동아대학교 경영대학 1993 經營硏究 Vol.- No.7

The topic requires to consider the four major problems in recent years : the impact of the end of cold war, the long-term trends of changing Power configuration, the implication of communist China in Asia, and Regionalism in the World. The economic problems will be taken up first, and the political problems second. The long term perspective for economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region depends both on external and internal factors. Externally, economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region is intimately related to forthcoming changes in the international economic environment, including a more intensive interation of the EC and the fate of the UR. Internally, economic cooperation in this region will depend on the relationship between the U.S. and Japan, ASEAN's attitude, and the expansion of NAFTA. Korea must earnestly participate in APEC's efforts to establish a multilateral economic cooperative system in the Asia-Pacific region. Ut doing so, Korea could enjoy several advantages. First of all, Korea could effectively cope with the emerging tendency towards regionalism in the recent world economic order. The forward growth model has been and will be the main mechanism for Korea's economic growth. In this regard, the recent tendency towards regionalism would threaten the future of Korea if it develops into a discriminatory economic bloc. By promoting Asia-Pacific regional economic cooperation through APEC, Korea would be able to dissipate adverse impacts caused by the deepening regionalism. More importantly, with the strengthening Asia-Pacific economic cooperation, the EC's rising economic power could be balanced and Korea would be able to contribute to the establishment of a new global multilateral free trade system. As one of APEC's participants with different conflicts of interest, Korea should be able to find a leadership position in the Asia-Pacific region. Korea can help to enhance APEC's international position through active participation in the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) and by providing continuous support to APES's Secretariat. Korea must also become more involved in the APEC's ten priority projects, which include foreign direct investment, technology transfer and trade expansion. Following is the background of the formation and evolution of APEC. By 1989, increasing integration around the Pacific Rim ted to number of proposals for an organization to promote cooperation among the economies of the region. The U.S. supported the 1989 initiative by Australian Prime Minister Hawke which led to the November 6-7 meeting that year in Canberra of foreign and economic ministers and the formation of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Annual ministerial meetings have been held in Singapore, Seoul, and Bangkok. The U.S. the fifth APEC ministerial meeting in Seattle on November 17-19, 1993. The November 1989 APEC ministerial meeting in Canberra was attended by the six nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Brunel, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand-and by Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and the United States. Its major accomplishment was to focus attention on regional economic issues, particularly the need for a successful Uruguay Round. Ministers also set the process of continued cooperation in motion by agreeing io meet again in 1990 and 1991and by tasking their senior officials to begin preparations for future meetings. There was no consensus on the structure of regional economic cooperation. To provide continuity, it became APEC practice for senior officials to inset regularly between annual ministerial meetings, with the host of the upcoming ministerial meeting acting as chair and providing secretariat and other services for one year. The second APEC ministerial meeting took place in Singapore in July 1990. At that meeting, ministers endorsed seven areas of cooperation, which became APEC's first work projects : · Trade and investment data; ·Energy; ·Marine resources conservation;·Trads promotion;·Telecommunications;·Investment and technology transfer; ·Human resourecs development; With the meetings of these work projects, APEC was becoming a very active, if informal, organization. Ministers indentified regional trade liberalization, consistent with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, as a central theme of APEC and instructed senior officials to explore the possibilities in the area. As in the first and all subequent ministerials, the ministers emphasized the need for a successful conclusion to the Uruguay Round and sought to provide a political impetus to the negotiations by issuing a statement on the round. The ministers also welcomed Canada's offer to host a meeting of APEC trade ministers, which was held in Vancouver in September 1990. The continuity of APEC was firmly established with the agreement that future ministerial meetings would take place in Thailand in 1992 and in the U.S. in 1993. After a year of active Korean diplomacy, the November 1991 APEC ministerial in Seoul saw the entry of China. Hong Kong, and Chinese Taipei into the organization. APEC then included all the major economies of the Asia-Pacific region. Ministers deferred decisions on other economies which had expressed interest in joining APEC, in favor of consolidation the organization and further defining its role. There was a growing consensus that APEC should move beyond an annual forum for ministers to become a formal international organization, but full agreement was not yet possible. Ministers adopted the Seould APEC declaration, which set forth the objectives, activities, and broad organization of the group. Ministers approved three additional work projects covering transportation, tourism, and fishcries. It was informally agreed to cap the number of work projects at 10. Ministers derected that work continue on regional economic trends and issues and regional trade liberalization, but these are pursued in informal working groups. Work on the formal organization of APEC continued under the Thai chairmanship. In September 1992, ministers adopted the Bangkok Declaration on APEC Institutional Arrangements-which formally established APEC as an international organization, provided for a permanent Secretarist in Singapore, and established a budget and financial procedures. The scale of contributions to the APEC budget was established, ranging from 2.5% for smaller economies to 18% for Japan and the United States. The Bangkok ministerial agreed to establish an Eminent Persons Group to enunciate a vision for trade in the Asia-Pacific region to the year 2000 and identify constraints and issues that should be considered by APEC. Proposals to establish an electronic tariff databases, customs harmonization procedures, administrative aspects of market access, and a survey of investment regulations in APEC were endorsed to move regional trade liberalization ahead in the near term. Requests to join APEC were considered, but ministers again deferred decisions, while asking senior officials to examine the case for participation by Mexico and others. Indonesia will assume the APEC chair in 1994, followed by Japan(1995), Philippines(1996), and Canada(1997). It has become practice in APEC that an ASEAN country holds the chair every other year.

OECD 主要國에서의 國際觀光産業의 역할에 관한 고찰

朴敬銘 동아대학교 경영대학 1999 經營硏究 Vol.- No.13

In the post-cold war world of the '90s, every country has kept a mutual cooperation with one another, according to the global economic trend that pursues open internationalization. In general, there is a tendency that economic development increases the weight of service industry in the whole industries. Especially, that steps up the appearance of economic structure that the tourist industry is given more weight than any other one. The growing trend toward internationalization, openness and liberalization is likely to accelerate the development of tourist industry. Moreover, international tourism plays more critical role in global economy development that ever, since uperspeed communication network makes it easier to exchange tourist information among countries. The purpose of this study is to discuss the characteristics of tourist industry and the trend and prospect of international tourism by term and region, to look into the economic effect of the existing tourist industry, and to analyze the contribution of tourist industry in major OECD member countries in light of balance of payments, employment, financial income, income growth, national or regional development, and of non-economy sector, including culture, society or education.

世界貿易機構(WTO) 出帆이 韓國 農家에 미치는 影響과 그 對應策

朴敬銘 동아대학교 경영대학 1994 經營硏究 Vol.- No.8

The world agricultural product markets are experiencing a rapid change in the environment with the recent formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO). That is to say, mankind that used to live in the insufficient food supply era before the 1970s are now living id the food surplus and higher quality consumption era, and this generation sees active internationalization through the development of communication and transporation technologies in the 1980s. As the open market policy begins to be implemented with the conclusion of the Uruguay Round (UR) in December of 1993, the agricultural section of each country under GATT faces the need to discard the protective barrier. Unlike the search for ways to modernize the farms in the 1960s, the recent agricultural problem of Korea sees the reality of making adjustment in the structures of the agricultural industry that follow the failure of the agricultural policies resulting from economic development. In addition, with the U.S. Agricultural Free Trade Policies of the 1980s turning into pressures to open the market, Korea is now faced with a very serious situation. Until recently, Korea was protected to a certain extent under the GATT Agriculture Exception Regulation, but this has become difficult with the conclusion of the UR on December 15, 1993. The Korean agricultural market needs to open up gradually with the official formation of the WTO, but as there are no solutions prepared to meet the result of the UR that is to gradually take place after 1995, much difficulties are expected. The shock of the UR need to be minimized and all efforts have to be put toward positively overcoming the problems of the Korean agricultural industry. Additionally, in response to the free flow of imports resulting from the gradual opening of the local maeket following the WTO formation, many policies including the international competitiveness of Korean agricultural industry and maintenance of labor for food production in order to maintain a stable domestic food supply. First, it is said that some time was earned to strengthen international fighting power with the establishment of the postponement period, but since this postponement period can change depending on the circumstance, increase in the productivity of land by expanding on the agricultural production foundation through arrangement of cultivated land, improvement of related facilities, reformation of farmland, and improvement of farmland etc. are needed although they may be long-term. At the same time, a secure policy in the improvement of the farm structure including the improvement of seeds, farming technology, and the distribution structure must take place. Second, in terms of the agricultural products, there was no opportunity to pay attention to other products as the rice market issue is very sensitive in Korea, there needs to be a solution to respond to such products as wheat, bean, potato and sweet potato as they will be affected with tax starting 1995. Third in order to maintain the labor involved in the prduction of food, policies to increase the income for farming households need to be considered to decrease the income gap between the cities and farms while a long-term balanced development plan covering the areas of increase in social overhead capital investment, training health, and cultural facilities need to be found between the cities and farms that will improve the lifestyles of both regions.

北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA) 結成이 韓國의 對 NAFTA 輸出에 미치는 影響分析

朴敬銘 동아대학교 경영대학 1992 經營硏究 Vol.- No.6

U.S. government recently announced that United State, Canada and Mexico have completed negotiation of a North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This agreement will phase out barriers to trade in goods and services in North America, eliminate barriers to investment, and strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights. For many years, Mexico used high tariffs and licensing restrictions in an effort to encourage industrial development and import substitution. Mexico has recent opened its market and implemented sweeping economic reforms. This Mexican economic reforms has considerably increased effective Mexican demend for imports, resulting in a surge in U.S. exports to that market. The objective of NAFTA is to open markets, this agreement involves an ambitious effort to eliminate barriers to agricultural and manufacturing, to remove investment resrictions , and protect effectively intellectual property rights. Highlights of the NAFTA include : (1) Tariffs Elimination.. . Approximatedly 65% fo U.S. industrial and agricultural exports to Mexico will be eligible for duty-free treatment either immediately or within five years. Mexico's tariffs currently average 10%, which is two-and-a-half times the average U.S. tariff. (2) Reduction of Motor Vehicle and Parts Tariffs. . .U.S. auto and light trucks will enjoy greater access to Mexico, which has the fastest growing major auto market in the world. With NAFTA, Mexican tariffs on Vehicles and light trucks will immediately be cut in half. Within five years, duties on three-quarters of U.S. parts exports to Mexico will be eliminated, and Mexican "trade balancing" and "local content requirement" will be phased out over 10 years. (3) Auto Rule of Origin.. .Only Vehicles with substantial North American parts and labor content will benefit from tariff cuts under NAFTA's strict rule of origin. NAFTA will require that autos contain 62.5% North American content, considerably more than the 50% required by the U.S.-Canada Free Agreement. NAFTA contains tracing requirements so that individual parts can be identified to determine the North American content of major components and sub-assemblies. This strict rule of origin is important in ensuring that the benefits of the NAFTA flow to firms that produce in North America. (4) Expanded Trade in Financial Service. . ,Mexico's closed financial services markets will be opened and U.S. banks and securities firms will be allowed to estabilish wholly owned subsidiaries. Transitional restrictions will be phased out by January. 1, 2000. (5) Increased Investment. . .Mexican "domestic content" rules will be eliminated, permitting additional sourcing of U.S. inputs and, for the first time, U.S. firms operating in Mexico will receive the same treatment as Mexican-owned firms. Mexico has agreed to drop export performance requirements, which presently force companies to export as a condition of being allowed to invest. (6) Protection of Intellectual Property Rights.. . NAFTA will provide a higher level of protection for intellectual property rights than any other bilateral or multilateral agreement. U.S. high-technology, entertainment, and consumer goods producers that rely heavily on protection for their patent, copyrights, and trademarks will realize substantial gains under NAFTA. The agreement will also limit compulsory licensing, resolving an important concern with Canada. This Agreement objected to open markrts, and it is not designed to creat a closed regional trading bloc, and does not erect new barriers to non-paticipant. But This ageement are the estimated amounts of decreases trade with Korea by the three countries on a one-static basis. The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) surveyed and evaluated the various economic analyses of NAFTA, and reported that all three conutries are expected to gain from a NAFTA, and that NAFTA would increase U.S. grouth, jobs and wages. USITC found that NAFTA would increase U.S. real GDP by up to 0.5% per yeat once it is fully implemented, and USITC projected aggregate U.S. employment increases ranging from under 0.1% to 2.5% (over on million U .S. jobs by 1995 under NAFTA) increases in U.S. real wages of between 0.1% to 0.3%.

中南美諸國의 外債問題와 그 調整案

朴敬銘 동아대학교 경영대학 1987 經營硏究 Vol.- No.-

We view the current debt-crisis in a much longer time frame, and as generalized, rather than limited to a few debtor nation. The real debt problem is not illiquidity, in this view, but insolvency or, better, structal barriers which, given the uses to which borrowed were put, substantially limit repayment possibilities, renewed OECD growth or not. It is useful to remember that much of the debt in Latin America was incurred in the 1970's by non-democratic governments that borrowed not only for productive investments, but also to finance non-productive military expenditures, to rollover short-term debt, or to finance capital flight. Seen from Latin America, where the potential political cost of the thoughest economic belt-tightening in 50 years is still widly feared, "la crisis" is by no means over. (a) Inflation in Latin America average 150 per cent in 1984 ; (b) Despite a halt in the slide of per capita income in 1984, it is still 14 per cent lower today than in 1981 ; (c) Total external debt grew by 30 per cent over the same period, simply to pay interst, which adsorbed the equivalent of over 40 per cent of merchandise export earning ; (d) Desite a reduction in their relative loan exposure to Latin America, the nine largest money centre, United States banks still have an exposure more than double their primary capital ; (e) No Latin America country, with the possible exceptions of Colombia and Panama, has access to market sources of finance today, and so far none of the long-term multi-year rescheduling has been signed. Higher energy prices should have forced all oil-importing nations to much adjustmrnts in their import bills through a reduction in oil or other imports, in line with the expected growth of the future. But immediately reducing energy or other productive imports meant slower rates of growth of aggregate production and income. Another(short-term) option, therefore, was occured to borrow externally the funds necessary to finance the higher import bill, and option made even more viable by the availability of loanable funds because of OPEC itself. Borrowed funds, however, were not used simply to ease to transition to a new import mix, but also to continue the growth and comsumption behavior of its past. Petrodollars received by the OPEC were deposited in the private international banks and recycled back to the oil importers. A11 of this helped to maintain OPEC price and demand, the OPEC cartel, and have the need for even more debt longer into the future. This extensive borrowing option, however, would not have been option to Latin America, if the private international banking system had not been so autonomous, unregulated, and irresponsible. The desire of Latin American governments to prolong economic growth, to arm their militaries, and to finance current comsumption(often via the public sector), however, conveniently connverged with excess liquidity. Besides these, there are additional factors that have contributed to the debt crisis ; that is, the worldwide recessions and the aggravation of terms-of-trad on the part of the developing countries. Moreover, the value of dollar and the interational interest rates level have came to be higher than when borrowed. These intricacies in the 1980s have exerted pressure on the debt crisis at the some time. There has emerged debt-equity swap system as one of debt-solutions in recent years. A nember of experts in international finance expect this system to mitigate the debt problem and to be more wide spread steadily with a support of both countries, debtors and creditors. Because official or commercial creditors can dispose of unpaid credits and debtors can repay with ther own currency and investors have much more opportunities to invest in the developing debt-countries. The solutions to the chronic debt-problem was mainly argued at a annual conference of IMF and IBRD in 1987. This conference produced a practical method for debt-reduction, which is "Debt-Swap" in forms of buying portfolio issued by debt-country and repayment by debt-country currency. A transregional organization is needed because the debt problem is of a world-wide nature. Although this paper focuses on Latin America, the debt problem also affects some debtor countries in Europe, Asia and Africa. The 1980s have already proven to be a lost decade in world development. It would be tragic indeed if beningn neglect condemened the 1990s to a similar fate. But the future is not necessarily bleak. The countries of Latin America have abundant resources, a developed managerial class, and relatively high income three times higher on average than the rest of the developing countries put together.

東歐COMECON諸國의 對西方貿易推移와 그 展望에 관한 硏究

朴敬銘 동아대학교 부설 사회과학연구소 1984 사회과학논집 Vol.2 No.-

Die Entwicklung des Osthandels ist in der Vergangenheit stets von politischen Problemen belastet gewesen. Trotz der politischen Belastungen entwickelten sich die Wirtschaltsbeziehungen zwischen West und Ost bis zum Jahre 1970 zwar nicht so spektakula¨r wie zu beginn der siebziger Jahre, dennoch war die Entwicklung sowohl wert-als auch mengenma¨ssing kontinuieilich nach oben gerichtet. Es kann festgehalten werden, dass der Ost-West-Handel auch vor dem Einsetzen der Detente-Politik sich ausserordentlich zufriedenstellend entwickelt hat und der Westhandelsanteil der RGW(=COMECON)-La¨nder sta¨ndig vergro¨ssert worden ist. Der Gu¨teraustausch bewegte sich zwar in den engen Grenzen der o¨stlichen Kauffa¨higkeit, doch stellt diese eine natu¨rliche, von den o¨konomischen Ressourcen gesetzte Grenze dar. Die wirtschaftlichen Kapazitaten der RGW-La¨nder waren weitgehend veraltet und bedurften duringend der Modernisierung. Als Folge der extensiven Industrialisierung zwingen zur Aufnahme von aussenwirtschaftlichen Beziehungen, zum Import sowohl von Technologien und Transportmitteln(Verkehissektor) als auch von Lebensmitteln aufgrund der mangelhaften Leistungsfa¨higkeit des Agrarsektors. Gleichzeitig zwingt der aus dem Wirtschaftswachstum resultierende Energieverbrauch zu verstarkten Investitionen in die Energiewirtschaft Die Bewa¨ltigung der anstehenden volkswirtschaftlichen Probleme war nur mit versta¨rkten Importen bei gleichzeitiger Gewa¨hrung umfangreicher Kredite mo¨glich, da die eigene Kaptaldecke in keinem der RGW-La¨nder ausreichte, um die Probleme aus eigener Kraft zu lo¨sen, und die Exporte(zumindest auf mittlere Frist) nicht fu¨hlbar gesteigert werden konnten. Das Ausmass der Verschuldung der RGW-Staaten Osteuropas ist so hoch, dass eine weitere Kreditausweitung weder von westlicher noch von ostlicher Seite zu verantworten ist. Der Verschuldungsstand und die "dabt service ratio" zeigen dutlich : Ene Erweiterung des Handelsvolumens auf dem Wege einer weiteren Kreditexpansion ist fu¨r die Zukunft nicht zu erwarten, auch wenn einzelne RGW-La¨nder nach wie vor u¨ber Kredite verhandeln. Die RGW forderte die absolute Einstellung von Importen auf der Basis von Krediten und die Abdeckung aller Importe durch Exporte sowie weiterhin den Abbau der Aussenverschuldung innerhalb weniger Jahre. Die Verwirklichung kann unter den gegebenen Bedingungen nur auf zwei Wegen erfolgen :- durch eine absolute oder relative Einschra¨nkung der Importe,-durch eine Erweiterung der Exporte. Die RGW-Staaten gehen beide Wege gleichzeitig. Die wirtschaftlichen Schwierigkeiten, vor denen heute die RGW-Staaten stekn, sind in erster Linie die Folge der Industrialisierungspolitik. Die binnenwirtschaftliche Stabilisierung aber, und dies wirkt heute wie ein Circulus vitiosus, ist nur mo¨glich, wenn weiter Westhandel betrieben wird. Der bisher rein wachstumsorientierte Westhandel der RGW-Staaten wird daher zunehmen in den Dienst der Wirstchaftskonsolidierung gestellt werden mu¨ssen. Das muss nicht unbedingt eine A¨nderiing der Gu¨terstruktur im Handel bedeuten, beeinflusst aber zweifellos die Prioritaten der Handelspolitik. So wird es, um die aus der Versorgungskrise resultierenden innenpolitischen Belastungen abzubauen, erforderlich werden, die Konsumgu¨terindustrie sta¨rker als bisher zu entwickeln, was zum Import gewisser Investitionsgiiter zwingt. Da jedoch alle RGW-Staaten mit Exportsubventionen arbeiten wollen und ko¨nnen, bedeutet dies, dass ein entsprechender Druck auf die westlichen Ma¨rkte ausgeu¨bt werden wird. Gleichzeitig werden sich die RGW-La¨nder untereinander Konkurrenz machen, was den Preisdruck noch erho¨hen du¨rfte. Die Exportoffensive soll von einer Anhebung der Qualita¨t der Gu¨ter begleitet werden. Die Schwerpunkte der langfristigen Entwicklungsstrategie des Ostens sowie die verschiedenen Formen von Gegengescha¨ften werden noch sta¨rker als in der Vergangeheit die Ost-West-Wirtschaftsbeziehungen bestimmen. Generell berechtigt aber die aktuells Situation in der Weltwirtschaft sowis im RGW-Bereich zu keinem u¨bertriebenen Optimismus. Pessimismus allerdings wa¨re auch nicht am Platze, da nach einer mehrja¨hrigen Konsolidierungsphase durchaus wieder mit einem gema¨ssigten Aufschwung gerechnet werden kann.

多國籍企業의 技術移轉戰略에 관한 硏究

朴敬銘 東亞大學校 經營問題硏究所 1986 經營論叢 Vol.9 No.-

Two forces have newly emerged as critical in post-war international economic affairs. One is technological advance. The other is the multinational corporation(MNC). Technology is defined as knowledge about physical relationships systematically applied to useful purposes or the application of knowledge in a systematic fashion with a view to achieving control over nature and human processes. Development and adoption of new technology are the primary means by which scientific advances are adapted to meet human meeds and to expand human opportunities. Technology transfer means the flow of technology across the nations through which elements of the technology package are conveyed to the recipient. It could take the form of formal channel such as bilateral or multilateral agreements. military assistance, joint venture, foreign direct investment, licencing, and other organizational relationships. Multinational corporations have played very important roles in technology transfer. Many developing countries wish to drive forward industrialization for economic development. Accodingly they need the introdution of technology from developed countries to achieve their goals. However they do not want to become technologically dependent. MNCs wish to transfer their technology to the place where it is required for their profits and prefer controlled direct investments to minority investments such as joint ventures and licensing arrangements. Generally they have two ways of strategics in transferring to LDCs by utilizing relatively cheaper resources in LDCs, and by considering the product life-cycle. In the begining 1980's were there many introduction of technology from MNCs and will be expected more ones in Korea. Korea should, therefore, have concerns deeply with the MNC's strategics of transfer to introduce efficient technology and try to develop it independently not only to cope with the technical protectionism of developed countries but also to cast off the skin of dependence from MNC's. For these goals, they, both, Government and Firms should make efforts to enlarge R &.D.

지방의 재정구조부터 개선하라

朴敬銘 세계평화교수협의회 1986 廣場 Vol.156 No.-