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      • Using System Reliability to Evaluate and Maintain Structural Systems

        Estes, Allen C.,Frangopol, Dan M. Computational Structural Engineering Institute of 2001 Computational structural engineering Vol.1 No.1

        A reliability approach to evaluate structural performance has gained increased acceptability and usage over the past two decades. Most reliability analyses are based on the reliability of an individual component without examining the entire structural system. These analyses often result in either unnecessary repairs or unsafe structures. This study uses examples of series, parallel, and series-parallel models of structural systems to illustrate how the component reliabilities affect the reliability of the entire system. The component-system reliability interaction can be used to develop optimum lifetime inspection and repair strategies for structural systems. These examples demonstrate that such strategies must be based on the reliability of the entire structural system. They also demonstrate that the location of an individual component in the system has a profound effect on the acceptable reliability of that component. Furthermore, when a structure is deteriorating over time, the reliability importance of various components is a1so changing with time. For this reason, the most critical component in the early life of the structure may not tie the most critical later.

      • SCIESCOPUS

        RELSYS: A computer program for structural system reliability

        Estes, Allen C.,Frangopol, Dan M. Techno-Press 1998 Structural Engineering and Mechanics, An Int'l Jou Vol.6 No.8

        Most reliability-based analyses focus on the reliability of the individual components of a structure. There are many advantages to examining the components in combination as an entire structural system. This paper illustrates an algorithm used in the computer program RELSYS (RELiability of SYStems) which computes the system reliability of any structure which can be modeled as a series-parallel combination of its components. A first-order method is used to initially compute the reliability of each individual component. The system reliability is computed by successively reducing the series and parallel systems until the system has been simplified to a single equivalent component. Equivalent alpha vectors are used to account for the correlation between failure modes during the system reduction process.

      • KCI등재
      • SCIESCOPUSKCI등재

        Prostaglandins Inhibit Cytochrome P450 4A Activity and Contribute to Endotoxin-Induced Hypotension in Rats via Nitric Oxide Production

        Tunctan, Bahar,Yaghini, Fariborz A.,Estes, Anne,Malik, Kafait U. 대한약학회 2008 Archives of Pharmacal Research Vol.31 No.7

        Increased production of nitric oxide (NO) and prostaglandins contribute to development of hypotension during endotoxemia. We have previously demonstrated that endotoxemiainduced increase in NO production suppresses renal cytochrome P450 (CYP) 4A expression and activity, and that selective inhibition of inducible NO synthase (iNOS) with 1,3-PBIT restores renal CYP 4A protein and activity and mean arterial pressure (MAP). By using cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor indomethacin, we investigated herein whether prostaglandins, via NO production, inhibit renal CYP 4A1 protein expression and CYP 4A activity and contribute to the endotoxin-induced hypotension. In conscious male Sprague-Dawley rats, endotoxin (10 mg/kg, intraperitoneal (i.p.)) reduced MAP, increased serum nitrite and bicyclo PGE2 levels, renal nitrite production and iNOS protein expression, and decreased renal CYP 4A1 protein expression and CYP 4A activity after 4 h injection. All of the endotoxin-induced changes, except for increase in renal nitrite production, were prevented by indomethacin (5 mg/kg, i.p. 1 h after endotoxin). The effects of indomethacin on the endotoxin-induced decrease in MAP, CYP 4A1 protein expression and CYP 4A activity were minimized by the CYP 4A inhibitor, aminobenzotriazole (50 mg/kg, i.p. 1 h after endotoxin). These data suggest that prostaglandins produced during endotoxemia increase iNOS protein expression and NO synthesis, and decrease CYP 4A protein expression and CYP 4A activity and that inhibition of iNOS or COX restores renal CYP 4A protein level and CYP 4A activity and MAP presumably due to increased production of arachidonic acid metabolites derived from CYP 4A.

      • Disease Burden of Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Mongolia: Potential Impact of Attaining World Health Organization (WHO) 2030 Goals

        ( O. Baatarkhuu ),( M. Batzaya ),( S. Brandon ),( C. Estes ),( B. Chiang ),( J. Amaarsanaa ),( H. Razavi ),( P. Nymadawa ) 대한간학회 2018 춘·추계 학술대회 (KASL) Vol.2018 No.1

        Aims: Mongolia has a large burden of viral hepatitis with the highest rates of liver cancer incidence and mortality In the world. An estimated 95% of liver cancer patients in Mongolia are infected with HCV and/or HBV. While HCV prevalence is likely declining, the burden of advanced liver disease will continue at a high level. Direct acting antivirals (DAAs) achieve higher sustained viral response rate (SVR) than interferon-based treatment regimens. In 2015, over 10,000 patients were treated in Mongolia with DAA regimens, an important first step on the path toward HCV elimination. Implementation of new treatments requires epidemiological data and modeling to assess the potential impact of improved treatment strategies. Use a modeling approach to describe HCV-related disease progression at the national level in Mongolia through 2030. Consider the impact of two scenarios on disease burden: Base Scenario and WHO Targets 2030 Scenario. Methods: Disease progression used age-and gender-defined cohorts to track HCV incidence, prevalence, morbidity and mortality. Data for prevalence, incidence, diagnosis, liver transplants and mortality risk factors were derived from Mongolian data sources when available, and expert consensus. A starting prevalence of 200,000 chronic cases in 2013 was used and was consistent with adult prevalence estimates collected in prevalence surveys from 2005 and 2013, after adjustment for prevalence in younger age groups. Two scenarios were considered with one based on the status quo and another designed to achieve WHO 2030 goals. Base Scenario: Treat 10,300 =F2 patients in 2016, gradually declining to 1200 treated patients by 2030. Assume 3230 new infections and 1300 newly diagnosed annually. WHO Targets 2030 Scenario: Achieve 2030 WHO Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis including a diagnosis rate of 90%, 65% decrease in liver-related mortality and a 90% decrease in new infections by 2030. Achieved in Mongolia by increasing treatment to 10,000-15,000 =F0 cases annually, diagnosing up to 10,000 cases annually, and gradually reducing new infections to 300 annually by 2025 (90% reduction) (Figure 1). The incidence and prevalence of HCV-related morbidity and mortality through 2030 were projected. Results of the WHO Targets 2030 scenario were compared to the Base scenario. Results: Base Scenario Viremic infections decline to 141,000 in 2030 as compared to 188,000 in 2016 (25% decrease), largely due to mortality (Figure 2). By 2030 incident decompensated cirrhosis cases will decrease by 17% from 630 cases in 2016 to 520 cases in 2030. The number of incident HCC cases was projected at 650 in 2030, a decrease of 18% as compared to 2016 (800 cases). By 2030, annual HCV-related liver deaths will decrease by 28% as compared to 2016, from 1280 deaths to 920 deaths (Figure 2). There will be 13900 cumulative liver deaths during 2016-2030 (Figure 3). WHO Targets 2030 Scenario Chronic infections decline 87% during 2016-2030 from 188,000 cases to 24,100 cases. As compared to the Base Scenario, cases decline by 83% in 2030. Incident HCC cases in 2030 were estimated at 170 respectively (74% decrease from Base Scenario. Incident liver deaths in 2030 were estimated at 330 (64% decrease from Base Scenario). During 2016-2030, there are a cumulative total of over 2800 fewer HCV-related deaths as compared to the Base Scenario. Conclusions: HCV disease is a substantial health burden in Mongolia, especially HCC and related deaths. Even under the Base Scenario, total viremic prevalence will decline by 2030, due to fewer new infections and mortality among an aging population. Scenario results emphasize the importance of in-creasing awareness, diagnosis and treatment of HCV, along with preventing new infections. Mongolia achieves WHO tar-gets for HCV hepatitis elimination by 2030 under the WHO Tar-gets 2030 Scenario, when including disease reduction achieved prior to 2016. The projected impact of the scenarios will facili-tate disease forecasting, resource planning, and rational strate-gies for HCV management in Mongolia.

      • KCI등재

        Prostaglandins Inhibit Cytochrome P450 4A Activity and Contribute to Endotoxin-Induced Hypotension in Rats via Nitric Oxide Production

        Bahar Tunctan,Fariborz A. Yaghini,Anne Estes,Kafait U. Malik 대한약학회 2008 Archives of Pharmacal Research Vol.31 No.7

        Increased production of nitric oxide (NO) and prostaglandins contribute to development of hypotension during endotoxemia. We have previously demonstrated that endotoxemiainduced increase in NO production suppresses renal cytochrome P450 (CYP) 4A expression and activity, and that selective inhibition of inducible NO synthase (iNOS) with 1,3-PBIT restores renal CYP 4A protein and activity and mean arterial pressure (MAP). By using cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor indomethacin, we investigated herein whether prostaglandins, via NO production, inhibit renal CYP 4A1 protein expression and CYP 4A activity and contribute to the endotoxin-induced hypotension. In conscious male Sprague-Dawley rats, endotoxin (10 mg/kg, intraperitoneal (i.p.)) reduced MAP, increased serum nitrite and bicyclo PGE2 levels, renal nitrite production and iNOS protein expression, and decreased renal CYP 4A1 protein expression and CYP 4A activity after 4 h injection. All of the endotoxin-induced changes, except for increase in renal nitrite production, were prevented by indomethacin (5 mg/kg, i.p. 1 h after endotoxin). The effects of indomethacin on the endotoxin-induced decrease in MAP, CYP 4A1 protein expression and CYP 4A activity were minimized by the CYP 4A inhibitor, aminobenzotriazole (50 mg/kg, i.p. 1 h after endotoxin). These data suggest that prostaglandins produced during endotoxemia increase iNOS protein expression and NO synthesis, and decrease CYP 4A protein expression and CYP 4A activity and that inhibition of iNOS or COX restores renal CYP 4A protein level and CYP 4A activity and MAP presumably due to increased production of arachidonic acid metabolites derived from CYP 4A.

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