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서울시 수리시설 설계기준의 기후변화 영향 고려를 위한 미래강우시나리오 산정
윤선권,이태삼,성기영,안유진,Yoon, Sun-Kwon,Lee, Taesam,Seong, Kiyoung,Ahn, Yujin 한국수자원학회 2021 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.54 No.6
In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.
Integrated Flood Risk Analysis in a Changing Climate: A Case Study from the Korean Han River Basin
윤선권,김종석,문영일 대한토목학회 2014 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.18 No.5
This research performed a case study to develop an integrated Flood Risk Index (FRI) considering hydrologic, socio-economic,and ecological components to assess watershed-based flood hazards and vulnerability in the Korean Han River Basin, where flooddisasters frequently occur. We used fifteen indicators, which were standardized, weighted, and classified, to create an FRI map. Fivecategories of flood risk were distinguished: “very high”, “high”, “medium”, “low”, and “very low”. The results in ternary diagrams,illustrating the relative importance of the three components show that urban areas in the Korean Han River Basin have experienced adecrease of 1.0% in terms of the hydrologic component. However, the socio-economic and ecological components have increased by3.2% and 4.4%, respectively. In rural areas, an increase of 4.8% was found in the hydrologic component alongside decreases in thesocio-economic (1.6%) and ecological (2.2%) factors. In addition, the FRI map shows that 20.02% of the total area of the Han RiverBasin is classified as having “very high” or “high” flood risk; the size of this high-risk zone has increased significantly, by 7.12, since1990. Despite the relatively small sample size and lack of data, the results presented here provide a quantified assessment of HanRiver flood risk combined with an integrated view of risk assessment and management for stakeholders and decision-makers.
도심지 토사재해 고위험지역 극치강우 시간분포 시나리오 분석
윤선권,장상민,이진영,Yoon, Sunkwon,Jang, Sangmin,Rhee, Jinyoung 한국농공학회 2016 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.58 No.3
In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution models over the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) station and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annual maximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during 1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It also showed different results for each area. The $Huff-4^{th}$ Quartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenarios of landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disaster risk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.
윤선권,안재현,김종석,문영일 한국수자원학회 2009 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.42 No.10
한정된 기간의 짧은 유출량 기록을 갖는 댐 유역에서의 수자원 시스템 거동예측은 수문학적 지속성여부에 대한 판단이 선행 되어야 하며 가용한 시계열자료에 대한 추계학적 분석을 통하여 실시하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 계절형 ARIMA모형을 통하여 안동댐 유역의 강우량, 증발량 및 유출량 시계열자료로 월별 수문시스템 거동을 예측하였으며, 예측된 결과를 토대로 TANK모형과 ARIMA+TANK결합모형에 의한 장기유출모의를 실시하였다. 분석결과 관측자료의 특성을 Hydrological system forecasting, which is the short term runoff historical data during the limited period in dam site, is a conditional precedent of hydrological persistence by stochastic analysis. We have forecasted the monthly hydrological system from A
윤선권,김민석,최현석,문현태 한국재난정보학회 2021 한국재난정보학회 학술대회 Vol.2021 No.11
최근 기후변화의 영향으로 도시하천의 홍수피해가 증가추세이며, 여름철 이상기상에 따른 돌발호우 발생으로 하천내 고립 사고 피해가 빈번히 발생하고 있다. 특히 서울시 도림천 유역의 경우, 상류 급경사 지형으로 홍수유출 도달시간이 짧고 수위가 급격히 상승하는 특성이 있어, 최근 10년(’11.~’20) 총 27회(사망 2명, 구조 141명) 고립사고가 발생하였다. 본 연구에서는 도림 천 유역을 대상으로 강우조건에 따른 둔치수위 모의를 위하여 XP-SWMM 모형을 구축하였으며, 지천(봉천천, 대방천, 제 1, 2 지류하천)과 우수토실 유입 유량을 반영한 둔치수위 예・경보 방안을 마련하였다. 또한, 실시간 강우-유량-수위변화에 따른 구간별 Flow Nomograph를 작성하여 홍수기 진출입 차단시설 예・경보 및 둔치수위 예・경보에 활용이 가능하도록 관련 매뉴얼 을 정비하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도림천 고립사고 예방과 시민의 안전사고 예방을 위한 통합 수방업무 매뉴얼 개발에 활용되었다.