제3차 당대표자회 분석과 김정은 후계체제 구축기의 과학기술정책

변상정 ( Sang Jung Byun ) 朝鮮大學校 統一問題硏究所 2010 統一 問題 硏究 Vol.25 No.2

North Korea officially started a hereditary power succession on Sept. 28 when its leader Kim Jong-il named his youngest son a military general and its ruling party gave him key political posts during the 3rd WPK`s Representatives Convention, the biggest party convention in decades. North Korea appointed its leader`s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers` Party of Korea. As a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Kim Jong-un will strengthen his grip on the military that operates 1.2 million troops and forms the basis of the Kim dynasty`s power. Kim Jong-il has apparently accelerated his hereditary succession plan since he suffered a stroke in 2008. This study in the perspective of historical institutionalism provides the hypothesis that establishes external circumstances, governing ideology, leadership, and economic development strategy as independent variables and analyzes characteristics in the science and technology policy under Kim Jong Il`s era as dependent variables. North Korea`s economic dependence on its strongest ally China is growing as its economy slips further into deeper isolation from the international community for its nuclear ambition. In result, focusing on the introduction of advanced science, the development of high technology and revitalizing external science and technology collaboration, Kim Jong-il`s regime strived science and technology development and economic reconstruction at the national level. However, external circumstances, governing ideology, systemic limitation on economic development strategy, and path dependence, which is comparably not different from Kim Il-song`s era, made the science and technology policy in Kim Jung-il`s era and the Kim Jong-un`s hereditary power succession period remain in the range of Juche science in the past. 본 논문은 제3차 조선노동당 대표자회 개최 결과를 분석·평가하고, 김정은의 후계체제 구축기와 향후 정책방향을 북한의 경제발전전략과 밀접하게 연계되어 있는 과학기술정책을 중심으로 분석하였다. 북한은 김정은에게 대장의 군사칭호를 수여한 데 이어 당대표자회에서 당 중앙군사위원회 부위원장으로 선출해 명실상부한 2인자로서 후계자의 지위를 공식화했고, 10월 10일 당 창건 65주년 기념행사를 통해 3대 세습을 대내외에 선포하였다. 외관상으로 볼 때 김정일이 위원장이고 김정은이 부위원장으로 임명된 당 중앙군사위원회가 국방위원회보다 그 위상이 강화되었다고 할 수 있다. 김정은은 당, 군, 공안, 군수경제의 주요 간부들이 모두 포진한 당 중앙군사위원회를 중심으로 ‘혁명의 참모부’인 당의 영도에 의한 선군정치를 더욱 완성시키는데 주력할 것으로 보인다. 김정은 후계체제가 안착하기 위해서는 무엇보다 2012년 강성대국 건설까지 인민들의 먹고 사는 문제에서 ‘결정적인 전환’을 이뤄야 한다. 따라서 북한은 김정은 후계체제에 대한 지지 확보와 경제난 해소를 위해 경제와 과학기술 분야뿐만 아니라 정치, 군사 분야에서도 중국과 밀접한 관계를 유지할 것으로 전망된다. 2009년부터 후계자 김정은의 업적으로 대대적으로 선전하고 있는 ‘주체식 CNC화’를 통한 북한의 산업재건과 생산성 향상 노력은 이미 그 한계가 노정되어 있다. 다시 말해 김정일 시대의 ‘과학기술중시정책을 통한 경제강국 건설’전략은 북한 체제의 발전경로, 즉 주체사상, 폐쇄적 계획경제와 경제-국방 병진노선 등 제도의 경로의존성(path dependence)과 무엇보다 ‘체제위협적’ 대외환경 변수에 종속되어 여전히 ‘주체과학’과 ‘주체경제’의 범주에서 벗어나지 못하고 있다.

김정은 체제의 ‘강성국가’ 건설 전략과 전망 : ‘지식경제강국’을 중심으로

변상정(Byun, Sang Jung),최경희(Choi, Kyong Hui) 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2012 동서연구 Vol.24 No.2

북한은 금년 공동사설에서 김정일이 1998년에 주장했던 ‘강성대국’ 건설 목표 중 미완의 ‘경제강 국’을 대체 계승하는 김정은 시대의 비전을 제시했다. 김일성의 주체사상으로 ‘정치(사상)강국’이 실현되고 김정일의 핵 보유로 ‘군사강국’이 완성되었으므로 김정은은 ‘새 세기 산업혁명’을 통한 ‘지식경제강국’ 건설을 선언한 것이다. ‘기계공업의 CNC화’로 상징되는 김정은의 ‘최첨단 돌파사 상’과 ‘지식경제강국 건설론’은 김정일 체제 출범시 제시되었던 ‘과학기술중시사상’과 ‘강성대국 건설론’을 계승한 것이다. 연하기계종합공장의 CNC기술 개발과 전 산업에의 CNC 도입은 ‘함남의 불길’과 함께 북한 사회 전체에 CNC화 도미노 현상이 확산되는 분위기를 만들고 있다. 김정 은의 ‘지식경제강국’은 북한의 정치체제와 경제구조의 근간을 훼손하지 않으면서 경제를 재건하기 위한 대안으로 제시된 것으로, 그 본질은 개방보다는 폐쇄적 ‘자력갱생’을 전제하고 있는 제한적 경제발전전략에 불과할 것으로 전망된다. Kim Jong Un, the first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK, made his first speech during a military parade to commemorate the centenary of the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Un underlined that the most important national agenda is becoming a powerful nation through improving the national economy, and resolving the food shortage problem. In addition, he stressed that strong knowledge-based economy must be built by way of new industrial revolution. The economic policy Kim Jong Un set forth involved resolving the food crisis for the people, development of light industry, transition to a powerful knowledge-based economy, land management, and improvement of cultural and education projects. The nation must be established as a strong knowledge-based nation. It was acknowledged that the world is quickly transitioning to the informatization of the economy and North Korea must develop the national economy and build an economic structure that meets international demand. Science and technology should be the forerunner to incorporate science and technology with production and resolve all problems in the economic development process from the science and technology aspect. North Korea may have rebuilt its industries to some degree through the recent reconstruction initiatives. The phrase ‘CNC’ referring to a new initiative to computerize the industrial facilities that started August 2009. But considering North Korea’s inefficient and outdated industrial facilities, the recent reconstruction achievements hardly seem sustainable in the long term. Given the low sustainability of North Korea’s industrial growth, its industrial development is expected to reach its limits soon, forcing the country to consider getting out of isolation and embracing openness and change.

제3차 당대표자회 분석과 김정은 후계체제 구축기의 과학기술정책

변상정 ( Sang Jung Byun ) 조선대학교 동북아연구소(구 통일문제연구소) 2010 동북아연구 Vol.25 No.2

본 논문은 제3차 조선노동당 대표자회 개최 결과를 분석·평가하고, 김정은의 후계체제 구축기와 향후 정책방향을 북한의 경제발전전략과 밀접하게 연계되어 있는 과학기술정책을 중심으로 분석하였다. 북한은 김정은에게 대장의 군사칭호를 수여한 데 이어 당대표자회에서 당 중앙군사위원회 부위원장으로 선출해 명실상부한 2인자로서 후계자의 지위를 공식화했고, 10월 10일 당 창건 65주년 기념행사를 통해 3대 세습을 대내외에 선포하였다. 외관상으로 볼 때 김정일이 위원장이고 김정은이 부위원장으로 임명된 당 중앙군사위원회가 국방위원회보다 그 위상이 강화되었다고 할 수 있다. 김정은은 당, 군, 공안, 군수경제의 주요 간부들이 모두 포진한 당 중앙군사위원회를 중심으로 ‘혁명의 참모부’인 당의 영도에 의한 선군정치를 더욱 완성시키는데 주력할 것으로 보인다. 김정은 후계체제가 안착하기 위해서는 무엇보다 2012년 강성대국 건설까지 인민들의 먹고 사는 문제에서 ‘결정적인 전환’을 이뤄야 한다. 따라서 북한은 김정은 후계체제에 대한 지지 확보와 경제난 해소를 위해 경제와 과학기술 분야뿐만 아니라 정치, 군사 분야에서도 중국과 밀접한 관계를 유지할 것으로 전망된다. 2009년부터 후계자 김정은의 업적으로 대대적으로 선전하고 있는 ‘주체식 CNC화’를 통한 북한의 산업재건과 생산성 향상 노력은 이미 그 한계가 노정되어 있다. 다시 말해 김정일 시대의 ‘과학기술중시정책을 통한 경제강국 건설’전략은 북한 체제의 발전경로, 즉 주체사상, 폐쇄적 계획경제와 경제-국방 병진노선 등 제도의 경로의존성(path dependence)과 무엇보다 ‘체제위협적’ 대외환경 변수에 종속되어 여전히 ‘주체과학’과 ‘주체경제’의 범주에서 벗어나지 못하고 있다. North Korea officially started a hereditary power succession on Sept. 28 when its leader Kim Jong-il named his youngest son a military general and its ruling party gave him key political posts during the 3rd WPK`s Representatives Convention, the biggest party convention in decades. North Korea appointed its leader`s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers` Party of Korea. As a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Kim Jong-un will strengthen his grip on the military that operates 1.2 million troops and forms the basis of the Kim dynasty`s power. Kim Jong-il has apparently accelerated his hereditary succession plan since he suffered a stroke in 2008. This study in the perspective of historical institutionalism provides the hypothesis that establishes external circumstances, governing ideology, leadership, and economic development strategy as independent variables and analyzes characteristics in the science and technology policy under Kim Jong Il`s era as dependent variables. North Korea`s economic dependence on its strongest ally China is growing as its economy slips further into deeper isolation from the international community for its nuclear ambition. In result, focusing on the introduction of advanced science, the development of high technology and revitalizing external science and technology collaboration, Kim Jong-il`s regime strived science and technology development and economic reconstruction at the national level. However, external circumstances, governing ideology, systemic limitation on economic development strategy, and path dependence, which is comparably not different from Kim Il-song`s era, made the science and technology policy in Kim Jung-il`s era and the Kim Jong-un`s hereditary power succession period remain in the range of Juche science in the past.

학술논문 : 북한의 2012년 강성대국 건설 추진 동향과 전망

변상정 ( Sang Jung Byun ) 한국군사학회 2011 군사논단 Vol.67 No.-

This paper analyzed the backgrounds of ``strong and prosperous nation building strategy`` during the Kim Jung Il Period in North Korea, depending on the analytical framework of external circumstances, governing ideology, and economic development strategy. And this paper researched driving trends of the ``strong and prosperous nation building`` during the Kim Jung Eun`s hereditary power succesion. The Songun idea and Songun Juche presented by Kim Jung Il are nothing but a survival strategy in the harsh conditions and the national goal of the ``strong and prosperous nation building`` can be called Kim Jung Il`s rule of slogan respond to changing internal and external environments, to promote social integration and solidarity system. Kim Jung Eun`s hereditary system seems to have been built stable, removing internal and external barriers. WPK, the military, and national security agency are strengthening systems of social control. And allegiance of the ruling elite to Kim Jung Eun is increasingly competitive. We wonder whether North Korea to declare 2012 as ``first year of the strong and prosperous nation`` in adverse situations. While international community`s sanctions against North Korea are continuing, North Korea is trying to relieve the economic crisis through strengthening economic cooperation with China and normalizing relations with Russia. It is estimated that the completion of the successor system of Kim Jung Eun will be propagated as the largest portion of 2012 performance.

학술논문 : 쿨위(Cool War) 시대 사이버 위협과 사이버 안보 강화 방안

변상정 ( Sang Jung Byun ) 한국군사학회 2013 군사논단 Vol.76 No.-

We are now in the midst of what could be called the Cool War. This successor to the Cold War shares the trait that it does not involve hot conflict on the battlefield, but is different in the nature and expectations surrounding the sub-rosa thrusts and parries by which it is conducted. North Korea has been ratcheting up threats against South Korea this year, claiming it will turn Seoul and Washington into a "sea of fire" and launch pre-emptive nuclear attacks against its enemies. North Korea masterminded a series of hacking attacks that crippled networks of South Korean bank, and broadcasters on March 20 this rear. A probe into access records and the malicious codes showed that Pyongyang`s Reconnaissance General Bureau launched the attacks. And North Korea was most likely behind the cyber attacks carried out between June 25 and July 1 on the websites of Cheong Wa Dae and the Office of Government Policy Coordination as well as multiple newspaper companies. The hackers who knocked out tens of thousands of South Korean computers simultaneously this year are out to do far more than erase hard drives. They also are trying to steal South Korean and U.S. military secrets with a malicious set of codes they`ve been sending through the Internet for years. In addition to cyber attacks on South Korean networks, the Nonh has been disrupting global positioning system (CPS) signals since 2010. South Korea and the United States held meeting in Washington, D.C. on July to strengthen cooperation on cyber security and other online policy issues that are expected to include how to cope with cyber terrorism by North Korea. The meeting was the second of its kind after the first session last year. The agenda included trust building in cyberspace, developing international cyber standards, and strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation in coping with cyber crimes. While our capabilities primarily sustain their defensive nature, we should not only focus on handling attacks when they occur but also be capable of striking back when the culprit becomes clear, We also should boost our own cyber capabilities and cooperation with the U.S. and participate more actively in global discussions to formulate rules on cyber warfare. , As the world already realizes. the challenges and problems, of cyber security, it is time to put our human and technical resources into action.

학술논문 : 특집논문 ; 북한 3대 세습체제에 따른 북한의 변화와 대남 영향 : 북한의 제3차 당대표자회와 김정은 후계체제 공고화 전략

변상정 ( Sang Jung Byun ) 한국군사학회 2010 군사논단 Vol.64 No.-

North Korea officially started a hereditary power succession on Sept. 28 when its leader Kim Jong-il named his youngest son a military general and its ruling party gave him key political posts during the 3rd WPK`s Representatives Convention, the biggest party convention in decades. North Korea appointed its leader`s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers` Party of Korea. As a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Kim Jong-un will strengthen his grip on the military that operates 1.2 million troops and forms the basis of the Kim dynasty`s power. Kim Jong-il has apparently accelerated his hereditary succession plan since he suffered a stroke in 2008. Pyongyang fired dozens of artillery shells onto a South Korean island near the borde, upping regional tensions just days after it claimed to have restarted uranium enrichment activities for suspicious purposes. The escalating provocations by North Korea indicate the reclusive state`s growing frustration toward the conservative South Korean government as well as the need to hold one-on-one talks with Washington for aid and internal stability. As North Korea`s largest final donor and diplomatic supporter, China is considered to have the strongest influence over the impoverished nation, which is apparently going through an unstable power transition. Hoping to win economic aid and secure political stability before he hands over the regime to his youngest, inexperienced son Jong-un, incumbent dictator Kim Jong-il has been expressing the will to restart stalled multinational denuclearization talks. Kim Jong-un is likely to maintain the so-called two-track method even after succession.

북한 과학기술정책 연구동향과 과제

변상정(Byun, Sang-Jung) 북한대학원대학교 2011 현대북한연구 Vol.14 No.2