역사지도 데이타베이스 구축을 통한 한국 비무장지대(DMZ)와 독일 그뤼네스반트의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 분석 (II)

( Oh Seok Kim ),( Marco Neubert ) 한국환경정책평가연구원 2019 기본연구보고서 Vol.2019 No.-

본 연구는 한반도의 비무장지대(Demilitarized Zone, 이하 DMZ)와 독일의 그뤼네스반트 또는 그린벨트(Grünes Band 또는 Green Belt, 이하 GB) 일부 및 인근 지역의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화를 비교·분석하는 것이 주된 목적이다. 비교연구를 통해 인간과 자연 간의 지속가능한 공존 가능성을 살펴보는 것이 궁극적인 목표이다. 한반도와 독일은 각각 국가 분단을 경험한 역사적 공감대가 있다. 한국과 북한 사이에는 DMZ가 1953년부터 놓여져 있어 왔고, 과거 구동독과 구서독 사이에는 ‘죽음의 띠’ 또는 ‘철의 장막’이라 불리우는 무장지대가 있었다. 1990년, 독일의 재통일 이후 해당 지역은 GB로 탈바꿈해 현재에 이르기까지 체계적으로 보존되어 왔다. 하지만, DMZ는 군사적 목적에 의해 아직 접근이 어려울 뿐이지 체계적인 보존 대책이 아직 존재하지 않는다. 전년도 연구는 한반도와 독일의 분단 상황에서의 경관변화를 분석하였다면, 금년도 연구는 활발한 교류 또는 통일 상황 하에서 예상되는 경관변화를 비교·분석하였다. 독일의 경우와는 다르게 한반도는 아직 통일이 되지 않았으므로 여기에 미래 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화를 전망할 수 있는 모델링을 적용해 미래의 상황을 체계적으로 유추할 필요가 있다. 모델링 기법 적용 시 다양한 토지이용 시나리오를 도입하면, 미래의 불확실한 상황을 모의하는데 있어 더 유리한 점이 있다. 단 하나의 경우만 고려하기에 DMZ의 미래가 너무 불분명하기 때문이다. 한편, 독일의 경우는 재통일이 된지 30년 가까이 지났으므로 변화탐지분석을 적용하여 경관변화를 분석할 수 있다. 연구질문은 아래와 같다. 첫째, 독일 재통일 이후, 25년 간 세 시점(1990, 2000, 2014년)의 토지피복지도를 근·현대지도와 위성영상에 근거해 구축하고 시계열 변화를 분석해 본 결과, 구동독과 구서독 중 어느 지역이 더욱 많이 변화하였는가? 둘째, 재통일 이전·이후의 변화 패턴이 같은가? 만약 다르다면, 어떻게 다른가? 마지막으로 셋째, 전년도에 구축한 1951년과 2015년 시점의 토지피복지도에 근거하여, 50년 이후의 DMZ 미래를 ‘현 상태 유지’와 ‘독일 그뤼네스반트’ 시나리오로 모의했을 때, DMZ의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화는 각각 어떻게 나타나는가? 분석결과, 독일은 재통일 이후에도 구동독의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화가 구서독보다 활발한 것으로 나타났다. 재통일 이전과 이후의 변화 패턴은 변화감지분석 결과만 고려하였을 때 별다른 차이가 없었다. 하지만, 겉으로 드러난 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 패턴이 비슷해 보여도 문헌조사, 현지답사, 인터뷰 등을 통해 정성적으로 조사해 본 결과, 구동독의 경관변화를 야기하는 시기별 기저요인은 각기 다른 것으로 나타났다. 재통일 이전에는 공산·사회주의 체제 하의 집단농장 구축과 군사진지화로 인한 경관변화가 주를 이루었다. 재통일 이후에는 시장경제로 인하여 기존의 농지가 대농장화되면서 많은 변화가 발생하였다. 시가화지역은 재통일과 크게 상관없이 꾸준히 증가해왔고, 습지는 꾸준히 감소해왔다. 재통일 이후에 발생한 주된 변화는 크게 두 가지이다. 먼저, 과거 구동독과 구서독의 접경지역이었던 ‘죽음의 띠’ 또는 ‘철의 장막’이 GB로 변화한 것을 토지피복지도를 통해 확인할 수 있다. 그 다음으로, 이를 가로지르는 고속도로(아우토반)이 개통된 것이 커다란 변화인데, GB를 지나는 구간에 터널을 설치하여 자연환경의 훼손을 최소화한 점이 괄목할 만하다. 한반도 연구지역에 시나리오 모델링을 적용한 결과를 제시하기에 앞서, 본 연구에 사용한 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 모델의 수리적인 알고리즘과 미래 토지이용변화 시나리오에 대한 세부적인 내용을 요약하면 아래와 같다. 모델의 이름은 Land Change Modeler(이하, LCM)로 미국 클락대학교의 지리공간정보분석연구소인 클락랩스(Clark Labs)에서 개발한 털셋(TerrSet)의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 시뮬레이션을 담당하는 모듈이다. LCM은 변화의 면적과 위치를 양분하여 미래의 상황을 모의한다. 면적의 총량은 마코프 체인(Markov Chain)에 근거해 전망하였고, 변화 위치 정보는 다층퍼셉트론(Multi-Layer Perceptron)을 활용하여 파악하였다. 다층퍼셉트론의 입력자료로 철도, 주요 도로, 해발고도, 경사도, 향, 토지피복 등을 고려하였다. ‘현 상태 유지(Business-As-Usual, 이하 BAU)’ 시나리오는 한반도 분단 이후로 부터 현재에 이르기까지의 토지이용 경향을 미래 상황에 투영한 것이다. 환경영향평가를 생략한 개성공단 제2,3,4지구 완공, 경의선 및 국도 제1호선 개보수 등이 여기에 포함된다. 더 나아가, 고려시대 역사유적인 나성 성곽 및 그 주변 지역과 DMZ에 행위제한 법제가 존재하지 않는 시나리오이다. 기존의 지속가능하지 않은 개발의 압력을 저감할 수 없는 상황을 의미한다. 이와 대비되는 상황인 ‘독일 그뤼네스반트(Grünes Band Deutschland, 이하 GBD)’ 시나리오는 DMZ와 고려시대 유적지에 행위제한을 설정해 해당 토지이용변화를 전적으로 지양하는 내용이 주를 이룬다. 이것은 독일의 튜링기아(Thuringia) 주정부에서 GB를 국가자연기념물(National Nature Monument)로 지정해 보존하고 있는 점을 벤치마킹한 것이고, 이는 국제적 차원에서 IUCN(International Union for Conservation of Nature) 보호지역 범주에 포함된다. 고려시대의 수도였던 개성은 2013년 다수의 문화유적지를 UNESCO(United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) 세계유산으로 등재하였고, 나성 성곽도 이에 포함된다. GBD 시나리오는 DMZ와 나성 성곽에 법제를 통한 엄격한 행위제한을 가정해 온전히 보존하는 상황을 가정한다. 더 나아가, 대규모 개발사업인 개성공단의 나머지 계획을 전면 백지화한 상황을 가정해 미래 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화를 모의하였다. 그 결과, BAU 시나리오 하에서는 DMZ 내에 지속해서 경관변화가 발생하는 것으로 나타나 추가적인 환경훼손의 가능성이 높아질 것으로 예상된다. 기존 개성 시 가지는 개성공단 제3지구와 연계되어 개발이 집중될 것으로 나타났다. 고려 나성성곽은 이들 지역 사이에 위치하고 있으므로 현 상태의 개발경향이 계속 유지된다면 추가적인 훼손이 불가피한 것으로 보인다. GBD 시나리오 하에서는 DMZ와 나성 성곽은 변하지 않으므로 이들과 관련해서는 추가적인 환경훼손의 가능성이 낮을 것으로 예상된다. 그러나, 법제를 통해 행위제한을 엄격하게 제한한 공간역을 벗어나면 바로 난개발이 만연할 것으로 분석되었다. 특히, 개성공단 제1지구와 DMZ 사이 지역이 개발에 매우 취약한 것으로 나타나는데, 이 지역은 개성공단 제1지구 뿐만 아니라 경의선, 국도 제1호선과도 인접해 있고 대부분이 평지로 이루어져 있어 개발하는 데 있어 유리하기 때문이다. 한편, 해당지역은 DMZ와 인접하는바 환경적으로도 민감한 지역이라고도 볼 수 있으므로 이는 개발과 보전이 상충하는 공간역의 대표적인 예시인 셈이다. 본 연구가 정책적인 측면에서 시사하는 바를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 개발을 중요하게 여기는 BAU 시나리오와 환경보존을 중하게 여기는 GBD 시나리오 모두 DMZ와 인근의 자연환경 및 역사경관을 효과적으로 보전하는 데 있어 각자의 한계점을 드러냈다. 남북 관계가 개선되는 가운데 본 연구에서 적용한 시나리오의 한계를 보완한 지속가능한 DMZ 토지이용 계획 마련이 시급하다. 미래의 계획은 최우선적으로 남북이 동의할 수 있는 내용이어야 하는바, 이를 위해서는 한국과 북한의 개발수요와 환경보전 수요를 균형있게 고려하는 것이 필수적이다. 국제연합(United Nations, UN)의 지속가능 개발목표(Sustainable Development Goals, 이하 UN SDGs)는 국제사회 차원에서 이미 합의를 본 내용이므르 UN SDGs에 명시된 틀을 활용해 DMZ와 인접 지역에 지속가능한 토지이용 계획을 마련하는 것이 필요하다. This study mainly compares and analyzes land-use and land-cover changes in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on the Korean peninsula and in parts of the German Green Belt (GB). The Korean peninsula and Germany have the historical similarity that they have both experienced divisions of the state. The DMZ has been emplaced between South Korea and North Korea since 1953. In the past, there was a strongly fortified border zone called the “Death Strip” or the “Iron Curtain” between East Germany and West Germany. In 1990, after German reunification, the area was converted into the so-called “Green Belt” and is still conserved systematically to the present day. However, no systematic conservation measures yet exist for the DMZ. Our 2018 study analyzed landscape changes in the situation of the separated Korea and Germany. In this follow-up report, the landscape changes are compared and examined under the condition of reunification. Unlike in the case of Germany, the Korean peninsula has not yet been reunified, so it is necessary to apply a predictive modeling approach to forecast future land-use and land-cover changes and infer the future situation systematically. The introduction of land-use scenarios in the application of modeling techniques has the advantage of simulating multiple futures, given that the DMZ’s future is too unclear to consider only one prediction. In contrast, it has been already 30 years since the German reunification. That is, for the German case, a predictive modeling approach is not required, so a change detection analysis can be applied instead. The research questions are as follows: (1) Which part of Germany (either former East or West) has experienced more change than the other, after the reunification based on the three land-cover maps of 1990, 2000, and 2014? (2) Before and after the reunification, do the change patterns differ? If so, how? (3) Based on the Korean land-cover maps of 1951 and 2015, the two scenarios, namely “Business-as-usual” and “Grünes Band Deutschland”, are simulated for the next 50 years for the case on the Korean peninsula. How do the simulated land-use and land-cover changes of the two scenarios differ? Following reunification, land-use and land-cover changes in East Germany have been more intensive than those in West Germany. Change patterns showed little difference before and after the reunification, only when the results of the change detection analysis were considered. However, even though the patterns of landuse and land-cover changes seemed to be similar, qualitative investigations through literature reviews, field trips, and interviews showed that the underlying forces causing the changes in East Germany were different over time. Before the reunification, the land-use and land-cover changes in the East German border region were mainly caused by the establishment of collective farms and by the expansion of military border fortification under the communist and socialist regimes. After the reunification, a market economy and capitalism were introduced. The introduction changed the underlying forces, and the change triggered the conversion from older collective farming to privatized large-scale agriculture, which uses lands intensively. Besides, settlement areas have been steadily increasing, but wetlands have been steadily decreasing regardless of separation and reunification. Two major changes have been noticeable since the reunification. The changedetection analysis showed that the protective strip―or so-called “Death Strip”― was converted into a GB largely. The other major change was the opening of the highway (Autobahn) across the former border region, and, remarkably, the damage to the natural environment was minimized by installing a tunnel in the section passing through the GB. Before presenting the results of the scenario modeling application to the study area on the Korean peninsula, the details and scenarios of modeling land-use and land-cover changes are summarized as follows. Developed by Clark Labs, the Land Change Modeler (LCM), an analytical module that simulates the land-use and land-cover changes, was used to simulate the future of the study area. LCM divides land-use and land-cover changes into two components: the amount of change and the spatial allocation of change. The former was estimated based on the Markov Chain, while the latter (the spatial allocation) was identified using a multi-layer perceptron (a type of an artificial neural network). Input data include railways, major roads, elevation, slope, and aspect, in addition to the land-cover maps for two points in time. The two land-use scenarios are applied in this research and explained as follows. The Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario reflects the historical trend of land use projected to the future. This scenario considered the pro-development tendency of the Korean peninsula. The BAU scenario includes completing the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th districts of the Kaesong Industrial Complex as planned and renovating the existing railways and major roads. It is likely that a proper environmental impact assessment will be omitted. Furthermore, this BAU scenario assumes no law enforcement regarding the conservation of the DMZ and historical castle walls. It means that the pressure of existing unsustainable development cannot be reduced. In contrast, the Grünes Band Deutschland (GBD) scenario consists mainly of setting restrictions on the DMZ and the ruins of the Goryeo Dynasty to limit the changes in land use and land cover in the region. This idea was borrowed from the state of Thuringia, Germany, as that state legally designated the GB as a National Nature Monument, which is also regarded as the protected area by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In 2013, Kaesong, the capital of the Goryeo Dynasty, was registered as World Heritage by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The GBD scenario assumes that the DMZ and ruins of the Goryeo Dynasty are fully preserved under strict legal protection. Furthermore, we assumed that the remaining plans of the Kaesong Industrial Complex were no longer taking place. As a result, under the BAU scenario, land-use and land-cover changes continue to occur within the DMZ, which is expected to increase the possibility of further environmental damage. The existing built areas of Kaesong downtown will be expanded further as these will connect with the 3rd district of Kaesong Industrial Complex. Such a connection will lure more concentrated development than when not connected. Because the ruins of the Goryeo Dynasty are located between downtown Kaesong and the 3rd district of Kaesong Industrial Complex, further damage appears inevitable. Under the GBD scenario, the DMZ and historical sites remain unchanged because they are legally well protected, so little damage would be expected in these areas. However, unplanned development will prevail for those areas that are not under legal protection. In particular, the region between the 1st district of Kaesong Industrial Complex and the DMZ appears to be genuinely vulnerable to development. This region is flat in nature, is adjacent to existing development such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and is close to the major transportation network that cuts through the DMZ, connecting the two Koreas. However, this region is essential in an environmental sense because of its adjacency to the DMZ. That is, the region is a clear illustration of conflicts between conservation and development. The research outcomes demonstrate a vital policy implication. Both scenarios, whether one is pro-conservation or not, were not able to conserve the landscape of the DMZ successfully. As inter-Korean relations improve, it is critical to develop a sustainable land-use plan of the DMZ region that complements the limitations of the two scenarios applied in this research. A future plan cannot be realized without a consensus between the two Koreas, and it is essential to balance the needs of South Korea and North Korea, both conservation and development-wise. As the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) provide a compelling list of agendas and have already reached an agreement at the international level, making good use of the UN SDGs may be beneficial to both South and North Korea. If successful, we may indeed be able to come up with a sustainable land-use plan for the DMZ and adjacent areas.

객체기반 셀룰러오토마타 모형을 이용한하남시 토지이용변화 모의

김일권,권혁수 한국지리정보학회 2018 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.21 No.4

Urban land use changes by human activities affect spatial configuration of urban areas and their surrounding ecosystems. Although it is necessary to identify patterns of urban land use changes and to simulate future changes for sustainable urban management, simulation of land use changes is still challenging due to their uncertainty and complexity. Cellular automata model is widely used to simulate urban land use changes based on cell-based approaches. However, cell-based models can not reflect features of actual land use changes and tend to simulate fragmented patterns. To solve these problems, object-based cellular automata models are developed, which simulate land use changes by land patches. This study simulate future land use changes in Hanam city using an object-based cellular automata model. Figure of merit of the model is 24.1%, which assess accuracy of the simulation results. When a baseline scenario was applied, urban decreased by 16.4% while agriculture land increased by 9.0% and grass increased by 19.3% in a simulation result of 2038 years. In an urban development scenario, urban increased by 22.4% and agriculture land decreased by 26.1% while forest and grass did not have significant changes. In a natural conservation scenario, urban decreased by 29.5% and agriculture land decreased by 8.8% while each forest and grass increased by 6% and 42.8%. The model can be useful to simulate realistic urban land use change effectively, and then, applied as a decision support tool for spatial planning. 인간 활동에 의한 도시의 토지이용변화는 도시의 공간구조와 생태계에 영향을 미친다. 토지이용변화 패턴을 파악하고 미래의 토지이용변화를 모의하는 것은 지속가능한 도시 관리를 위해 필요하지만, 토지이용변화의 불확실성과 복잡성으로 인해서 이를 효과적으로 모의하기 어렵다. 셀룰러오토마타 모형은 도시토지이용변화에 널리 사용되는 모형으로, 격자기반의 변화를 모의한다. 하지만, 격자기반의 모의는 실제 토지이용변화 특성을 반영하기 어렵고, 토지이용의 파편화가 나타나는 한계가 있다. 이러한 문제를 보완하기 위해 제작된 객체기반 셀룰러오토마타모형은 토지패치 객체별변화를 모의한다. 본 연구는 하남시를 대상으로 객체기반 토지이용변화 모형을 제작하여 미래의토지이용변화를 모의하였다. 제작된 모형의 정확도를 평가하는 성능지수는 24.1%로 평가되었다. 기준시나리오를 적용한 2038년의 토지이용변화 모의결과, 시가지는 16.4% 감소한 반면, 농경지는 9.0% 증가하였고, 초지는 19.3% 증가하였다. 개발시나리오의 경우 시가지는 22.4% 증가하였고, 농경지는 26.1% 감소한 반면, 산림과 초지는 큰 변화가 나타나지 않았다. 보전시나리오의 경우 시가지는 29.5%, 농경지는 8.8%감소하였고, 산림과 초지는 각각 6%, 42.8% 증가하였다. 본모형은 실제 도시 토지이용변화를 효과적으로 모의하여 공간계획을 위한 의사결정지원도구로 사용될 수 있다.

복합토지이용이 주택가격에 미치는 영향 : 시카고를 대상으로 공간계량경제모형을 활용하여

진장익(Jin, Jangik),진은애(Jin, Eunae) 한국부동산정책학회 2017 不動産政策硏究 Vol.18 No.2

Mixed land use has become one of the key elements in land use planning. However, little is known about whether the mixed land use development is able to meet housing consumers’ needs. This is because most previous studies examining its effects have only focused on the aspect of the supply side of mixed land use. Hence, residents’ demands have not been well reflected in the land use planning, especially mixed land use development. With this perspective, this study aims to analyze how mixed land use meets the housing consumers’ needs. Particularly, this study investigates housing consumers’ willingness to pay for mixed land use development in the Chicago metropolitan area using the US Census and LEHD data. In order to deal with spatial autocorrelation occurring between housing prices, we employed spatial econometric models, such as spatial lag model, spatial error model, and general spatial model. Our findings show that mixed land use is not associated with housing prices, whereas mixed land use is positively related to rent prices. We suggest that land use planners and policy makers should consider different preferences on the mixed land use between housing demanders and renters, when they establish land use plans and housing policies.

PLS-구조방정식을 활용한 토지이용 유형별 개발밀도와 지가의 인과관계 분석 및 정책적 시사점 연구

장명준,김태호 한국도시행정학회 2012 도시 행정 학보 Vol.25 No.3

Analyzing urban land use density is one of the most effective ways to understand urban spatial structure, and describe the procedure of urban development. Moreover, in order to dissect more accurate urban spatial characteristics, examining the land value is highly recommended simultaneously. This study aims to analyze the causal relationships between urban land use density and land value. Then, this study classifies land use efficiency in each Gu-district in Seoul and finds policy implication for more desirable future land use. The data for this research is provided from the property tax ledger of City of Seoul. For the research methods, this study adopts basic statistical analysis to summarize data. Moreover, this study utilizes PLS-structural equation modeling in order to analyze land use efficiency. The result of the SEM shows that Seoul’s land is efficiently used in general. However, some Gu’s land use was experiencing inefficiency. The inefficiency was resulted from the unbalanced roles of residential and commercial land use. This study attempts to understand the relationship between the development density and land value during the urban development procedure using actual data of Gu-district in Seoul. This study contributes to provide basic data for more efficient urban land uses in Seoul in the future.

확률선택모형에 의한 대구시의 토지이용변화에 대한 실증분석

박헌수,조규영 국토연구원 2008 국토연구 Vol.58 No.-

As an essential part of integrated land use-transport models, prediction of land use changes and illumination of the many factors behind such change are always of interest to planners, policy makers, developers and others. Land use classifications are discrete, and spatial effects are fundamental. For these reasons, new specifications and computational methods are needed. The paper describes the computational methods used for model estimation and application, including likelihood simulation. Using a multinomial logit framework, this paper studies land use changes in Daegu metropolitan area, in 30m×30m pixels. In light of these challenges, this paper randomly samples 2,000 observations for 100 times and estimates a multinomial logit model via maximum likelihood estimation. Lagged variables are key to the model’'s specification and a series of neighborhood variables, computed for each cell in turn, control for population and local development. And uncertainties in predictions are quantified via an entropy statistic. Results indicate that neighborhood characteristics have strong effects on land use change: clustering is significant over space, but high residential densities can impede future development of non-residential land use. As an essential part of integrated land use-transport models, prediction of land use changes and illumination of the many factors behind such change are always of interest to planners, policy makers, developers and others. Land use classifications are discrete, and spatial effects are fundamental. For these reasons, new specifications and computational methods are needed. The paper describes the computational methods used for model estimation and application, including likelihood simulation. Using a multinomial logit framework, this paper studies land use changes in Daegu metropolitan area, in 30m×30m pixels. In light of these challenges, this paper randomly samples 2,000 observations for 100 times and estimates a multinomial logit model via maximum likelihood estimation. Lagged variables are key to the model’'s specification and a series of neighborhood variables, computed for each cell in turn, control for population and local development. And uncertainties in predictions are quantified via an entropy statistic. Results indicate that neighborhood characteristics have strong effects on land use change: clustering is significant over space, but high residential densities can impede future development of non-residential land use.

인구감소에 대비한 도심재개발의 활성화를 위한 공공용지 확보방안에 관한 연구

정삼석(Chung Sam Seok),정상철(Jeong Sang Cheol) 한국부동산학회 2015 不動産學報 Vol.61 No.-

본 연구는 앞으로 인구감소에 대비한 도심재개발 활성화를 위해 공공용지 부담계획에 대한 통계분석기법을 통해 문제점을 분석하고 도심재개발 공공용지 확보 방안의 개선점을 논해 보았다. 기존 공공용지 확보는 원칙없이 무분별하게 도심재개발 행정이 이루어지고 있음을 분석을 통해 검증하였고, 공공용지부담률이 일정비율로 확보되거나 적용되지 않음을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 도심재개발 공공용지 확보에 따른 문제점을 분석하여 제도적 방안과 공개공지 확대 방안, 입지규제최소구역의 시행, 공공용지부담률 방안 등의 개선방안을 제시하였다. 그리고 공공용지부담률 방안은 공공용지계획에 영향을 미치는 요인변수들의 함수관계에 의해 가장 중요한 요소인지를 계량적으로 추적하여 공공용지부담률 모형을 제시하였다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The objective of the study is to promote CBD redevelopment in preparation of a declining population by proposing a practical land-for-public-use securement measure. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This paper proposes an improvement measure using a forecast model resulting from land-for-public-use and allocation plan variable analyses. The land-for-public-use for CBD redevelopment's forecast model was defined using regression analysis. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS 1. For areas with smaller land-for-public-use allocation ratio, a legal provision that considers restitution of development gain is necessary. 2. The land-for-public-use allocation ratios need to be adjusted differentially depending on the expected return of each project. 3. The benefit principle should be applied to the land-for-public-use plan of all CBD redevelopments. 4. Securement of land-for-public-use, expansion of public open space and the implementation of minimal site-regulation area need to be considered for the vitalization of CBD redevelopment. 2. RESULTS This study addressed the problems of CBD redevelopment's land-for-public-use allocation plan and proposed improvements using statistical analyses. It has been proven through analysis that the existing land-for-public-use policy has been administered without a strict set of principles and ratios. This study attempts to propose a forecast model for land-for-public-use allocation ratio by quantitatively assessing if the securement of land-for-public-use is the most critical variable in land-for-public-use plan. Additionally, systematic measure, allocation measure, expansion measure of public open space and the implementation of minimal site-regulation area have been proposed.

로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적의 공간변화 예측에 관한 연구

곽두안 ( Doo-ahn Kwak ),박소희 ( So-hee Park ) 한국지리정보학회 2021 한국지리정보학회지 Vol.24 No.4

본 연구는 기존 연구에서 수행된 전국 단위의 정량적 산지면적 변화량을 공간적으로 배분하여 광역시도별 산지면적 변화를 추정함으로써 지역산림계획의 수립을 지원하기 위해 수행되었다. 토지를 산지, 농지, 도시 및 기타지로 구분하고 토지이용 형태별 변화 여부를 종속변수로, 지형요소, 이용 제한요소, 사회·경제적 요소, 개발 인프라를 독립변수로 하는 로지스틱 회귀모형을 개발하였다. 우리나라 전체를 30m×30m 격자로 분할하여 각 Cell에 해당하는 독립변수 자료를 구축하였고, 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용하여 각 토지이용 형태가 타 유형으로 변화하는 확률을 추정하였다. 추정된 토지이용 변화확률을 기반으로 변화순위 지도를 구축하였고, 연도별 토지이용 변화량을 변화 순위에 따라 순차적으로 배분함으로써 토지이용 변화의 공간적인 변화를 분석할 수 있었다. 경사도와 지자체별 개발 가능한 경사도 기준이 산지가 도시 및 기타지로 변화될 확률에 가장 큰 영향을 미쳤으며, 경사도와 개발 가능한 경사도 기준이 낮을수록, 토지가격과 인구밀도가 높을수록 산지가 도시 및 기타지로 변화될 확률이 높아졌다. 그 결과 2027년까지 수도권과 대도시의 산지가 도시 및 기타지로 변화하여 산지면적이 크게 감소하였다. 그러나 2028년 이후 2050년까지 서울, 경기, 제주를 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 산지면적이 빠르게 증가하는 것으로 예측되었는데, 이는 지방 소도시의 급격한 인구감소에 기인하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이에 중앙정부에서는 변화하는 산지면적에 대응하기 위해 산지관리 정책의 전환이 필요하고, 지자체 단위에서는 인구의 감소 정책과 그에 따른 산지를 포함한 토지의 효율적 보전 및 이용체계를 수립하는 것이 필요할 것으로 사료된다. This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

갑천 유역을 대상으로 토지이용예측모델 비교 분석

권필주 ( Pilju Kwon ),류지철 ( Jichul Ryu ),이동준 ( Dong Jun Lee ),한정호 ( Jeongho Han ),성윤수 ( Yunsoo Sung ),임경재 ( Kyoung Jae Lim ),김기성 ( Ki-sung Kim ) 한국물환경학회(구 한국수질보전학회) 2016 한국물환경학회지 Vol.32 No.6

For the prediction of hydrologic phenomenon, predicting future land use change is very important task. This study is intended to compare and analyze between the two different land use change models namely CLUE-S and SLEUTH3-R. The analysis of two models are performed based on the MSR value such that the model having more reliable MSR value can be recommended as an appropriate land use change prediction model. The model performance was examined by applying them to the Gapcheon A watershed. Land use map of the study area of year 2007 obtained from the Ministry of Environment was compared with the predicted land use map obtained from the two different models separately and the result from both the models showed somewhat similar results. The MSR value obtained from CLUE-S was observed to be 0.564 while that from SLEUTH3-R was 0.586. But when land use map of 2010 was compared with predicted land use map obtained from the two models in same manner, the MSR value obtained from CLUE-S` was observed to be 0.500 while that from SLEUTH3-R was decreased to 0.397 which is almost 32.3% decrease from previous value of 2007. Moreover, SLEUTH3-R was seen more sensitive in conversion of urban areas compared to other land use types. Therefore, for the prediction of future land use change, CLUE-S model is reliable than SLEUTH3-R.

토지이용과 어류 군집의 관계에서 하안 형태복잡도의 매개모형 검증

김진아 ( Jinah Kim ),이상우 ( Sang-woo Lee ),황길순 ( Gil-son Hwang ),김동억 ( Dong-oug Kim ) 한국농공학회 2013 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2013 No.-

Many studies suggested that land uses of area adjacent to stream have strong relationships with stream ecosystem. Urbanized land uses can adverse impact on water quality and biotic communities through the edges of the stream ecosystem. Based on the perspective of landscape ecology, edges treated as important factors in controlling the flow rate of material in two systems, including aquatic ecosystem and terrestrial ecosystem. Numerous studies stated that fish can reflects the status of stream integrity, such as water quality and habitat. In this study, we examined the mediating effect of stream complexity on the relationship between urban land uses and fish. We selected the Nakdong river as study sites. It passes through two major cities such as, Daegu and Busan. To estimate the stream complexity, we use the fractal dimension of a streamline within a 1km-buffer area. We used 5km-buffer to calculate the proportion of urban land use area adjacent to stream and the Index of Biotic Integrity(IBI) data of National Aquatic Ecological Monitoring Program (NAEMP). We verified the full mediation model, to estimate the full mediation model, we set paths among variables (a) from the proportion of urban land use to the stream geometry, and (b) from the stream complexity to the IBI. In the results of full mediation model estimation, the path from the proportion of developed areas to the stream geometry showed β=-0.489(p<0.001) and the path from the stream complexity to the IBI showed β=0.591(p<0.001). In addition, we calculated absolute fit indexes and incremental fit indexes of full mediation model according to previous studies. All of the indexes indicate the enough value that suggests the model is suitable for full mediation effect model(CFI=1.000, TLI= 1.056, RMSEA=0.000). The results of mediation model verification suggested that streamline complexity can be a mediator as reduce the adverse impact of urban land use on fish assemblages. This study expected to applied into stream restorations to enhance the fish in the stream. There is a need to verify other mediation model that it can be explain the mediation effect of streamline complexity on the relationship between fish and land use.

GROWTH MANAGEMENT PRIORITY AND LAND-USE REGULATION IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT: EMPLOYING A FULL STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL

박상철,박정원,이건형 한국행정학회 2012 International Review of Public Administration Vol.17 No.1

Growth management is a rational means of controlling local land use and development patterns in terms of regulatory policy. The authors expand the scope of previous research by addressing the causal relationship between the land-use policy-making process and its consequences. In terms of the political market perspective, this research examines direct and indirect causalities among interest groups, government, land-use policy choice, and the policy outcome. On the basis of the theoretical and analytical setting, the authors conclude that local governments are positively influenced by growth management–oriented interest groups, and they are more likely to devise smart growth land-use tools, but less likely to choose direct land-use regulation. Within governmental regulatory actions, however, direct regulations such as urban growth restrictions, greenbelts, and rural protection lines are regarded as more effective instruments to identify the stringency of land-use regulation for reducing urban sprawl rather than smart growth land-use policy tools. Finally, the causal relationships found in this research imply that, rather than using one direct effect measurement in the study of land-use regulation, the different dimensions have various causalities on land-use regulation and regulatory performances.