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실물옵션을 이용한 애프터리빙제의 가치평가 연구 : 행동경제학 관점을 중심으로
진연화(Jin, Yeon-Hwa),유정석(Yu, Jung-Suk) 경기연구원 2021 GRI 연구논총 Vol.23 No.1
The current government implemented a policy to revitalize the real estate economy through the “New Deal for Urban Regeneration” in order to stimulate the economy, such as creating jobs and regenerating the original city. Accordingly, the government has announced various real estate measures to promote housing price stabilization policies. However, in the metropolitan area and some regions other than the Seoul area, there are areas where unsold items occur. This study analyzed the problems of ‘After-Living System’, which is used as a new type of marketing technique for unsold homes during the real estate recession, and suggested solutions. In the case of this study, the value of the entire business (NPV) according to the net present value method (NPV) is -16,269 million won, and it is unclear whether the success of the new marketing method of the after-living system is due to low business value. However, from the perspective of suppliers, the total business value (ENPV) based on the real option model is KRW 25,925 million (Black-Scholes model) and KRW 24,608 million (binomial-tree model). It can be expected that the pre-sale will be completed after 3 years of residence, while expecting the consumer’s endowment effect. In addition, after calculating the value of abandonment option using a binomial-tree model so that the consumer can decide whether to move in two years after moving in, the sensitivity according to the volatility and the rate of decline in housing prices was calculated. At the point of t=2, which is 2 years of occupancy in 2023, 12 items out of a total of 15 sensitivity analysis items were derived. In addition, it can be seen that there is a high possibility of continuing to live in a house after living in a house for 3 years along with the loss aversion psychology of behavioral economics. In conclusion, in the real estate field, After-Living System’ can be used more widely than now as a chartered pre-sale marketing method for unsold homes after completion.
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코하우징 구축과정 및 거주자의 생활 분석을 통한 공급활성화 방안
정지인(Jung, Ji-In),박경옥(Park, Kyoung-Ok) SH도시연구원 2017 주택도시연구 Vol.7 No.1
Cohousing is made up of complete units of personal residences with, some shared common space and can create community through community programs during the building process and after taking up residency. The purpose of this study was to suggest planning and policy guidelines to promote the market for urban cohousing through the analysis of the building process and gaining feedback from residents after living in the houses. Eleven residents in integrated cohousings located in an urban area of Korea were extensively interviewed and a field survey was conducted in order to do the research. Research data was collected from Aug, 25th to Nov, 11th, 2015. The full interview was recorded and typed, dividing the survey by item and then the key words were arranged by concept, low-order category and high-order category. All the data was then analyzed. The following are the conclusions and promotion of cohousing development based on the results of this study. Urban cohousing guarantees residential stability making it possible to own the houses. The building process of cohousing, requires an appropriated leading coordinator company to facilitate good communication among residents, and between the residents and the developer. Considerations for the construction process include location within an existing town, design for prevention of noise, range of free design and period of construction. After taking up residency it is essential for the developing company and public institutions to provide support for systematic management.
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이지호(Ji-Ho Lee),김지현(Ji-Hyun Kim) 건국대학교 부동산도시연구원 2023 부동산 도시연구 Vol.15 No.2
본 연구의 목적은 서울시민의 주거특성이 노후준비와 은퇴 후 예상하는 필요한 월 생활비에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 서울서베이 데이터를 활용하여 이항 및 다항 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 현재 응답자가 거주하는 주택유형, 점유형태, 거주기간은 노후준비에 영향을 주는 것으로나타났다. 둘째, 거주기간과 상관없이 소유한 아파트에 거주하는 응답자들이 가장 높은 수준의 은퇴 후 월 생활비를 설정하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 분석결과로 서울시민의 현 주거특성은 노후준비와 은퇴 후 예상 생활비에 영향을 주고 있음을 확인할 수 있었으며 청년층부터 노후준비를 할 수 있는 주거지원정책 프로그램이 필요하다고 제안한다. The objectives of this study is to analyze the effects of Seoul citizens’ housing characteristics on their preparation for old age and the expected monthly living expenses after retirement. For this purpose, binary and multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted using Seoul Survey data. The analysis results are as follows. First, it was found that the housing type, occupancy type, and residence period in which the respondent currently resides have an effect on whether or not to retire. Second, the respondents who live in their own apartments, regardless of the period of residence, expect the highest monthly living expenses after retirement. Accordingly it was confirmed that the current housing characteristics of Seoul citizens have an effect on the preparation for old age and the expected cost of living after retirement.
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