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Pantropical climate interactions
Cai, Wenju,Wu, Lixin,Lengaigne, Matthieu,Li, Tim,McGregor, Shayne,Kug, Jong-Seong,Yu, Jin-Yi,Stuecker, Malte F.,Santoso, Agus,Li, Xichen,Ham, Yoo-Geun,Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu,Ng, Benjamin,McPhaden, Mich American Association for the Advancement of Scienc 2019 Science Vol.363 No.6430
<P><B>Tropical interconnections</B></P><P>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which originates in the tropical Pacific, affects the rest of the world's tropics by perturbing global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated than this influence is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Cai <I>et al.</I> review what we know about these pantropical interactions, discuss possible ways of improving predictions of current climate variability, and consider how projecting future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios may be improved. They argue that making progress in this field will require sustained global climate observations, climate model improvements, and theoretical advances.</P><P><I>Science</I>, this issue p. eaav4236</P><P>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.</P>
Cai, Wenju,Santoso, Agus,Wang, Guojian,Yeh, Sang-Wook,An, Soon-Il,Cobb, Kim M.,Collins, Mat,Guilyardi, Eric,Jin, Fei-Fei,Kug, Jong-Seong,Lengaigne, Matthieu,McPhaden, Michael J.,Takahashi, Ken,Timmerm Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan P 2015 Nature climate change Vol.5 No.9
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.
Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming
Kim, Seon Tae,Cai, Wenju,Jin, Fei-Fei,Santoso, Agus,Wu, Lixin,Guilyardi, Eric,An, Soon-Il Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan P 2014 Nature climate change Vol.4 No.9
<P>The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation(1,2) (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established(3-5). However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability(6-8), commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude(1,6), despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide(1-4,9). Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database(10), forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.</P>
남 대서양의 변동성과 엘니뇨(El Nino)/남반진동(Southern Oscillation) 사이의 분지간 상호작용
함유근,이현정,조현수,이세건,Wenju Cai,Regina R.Rodrigues 한국기상학회 2021 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.10
엘니뇨(El Nino)/남반진동(Southern Oscillation)과 상호작용하는 해양의 변동성은 대부분의 해양 분지에서 잘 알려져 왔으나, 남대서양의 변동성이 엘니뇨/남반진동에 미치는 영향은 잘 알려져 있지 않다. 이 연구는 남대서양 아열대 쌍극자(South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD))라고 불리는 북반구 겨울철 동안의 아열대 남대서양 해수면 온도 변동성의 지배적인 모드가 1년 후 엘니뇨 발생에 기여한다는 것을 보여준다. 양의 SASD동안, 중위도 남대서양 지역의 낮은 대류권 고기압 순환 아노말리는 남아메리카 남동부의 대류 활동을 감소시키게 되는데, 감소된 대류와 관련된 발산이 약화되어 남아메리카 지역 저층 제트의 발생을 약화시키게 된다. 이로인해 수분공급은 남대서양 수렴대(South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ))를 따라 이동하게 된다. 남대서양 수렴대에 증가된 강수는 적도 대서양의 해수면 온도를 낮추게 되고, 이는 이 지역의 워커 순환을 조절하여 적도 대서양 지역에 동풍 아노말리를 유발한다. 또한 서태평양 지역에는 서풍 아노말리를 유발해 엘니뇨 발달 호조건을 형성하게 된다.
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño
Collins, Mat,An, Soon-Il,Cai, Wenju,Ganachaud, Alexandre,Guilyardi, Eric,Jin, Fei-Fei,Jochum, Markus,Lengaigne, Matthieu,Power, Scott,Timmermann, Axel,Vecchi, Gabe,Wittenberg, Andrew Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2010 Nature geoscience Vol.3 No.6