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      • KCI등재

        서울 경마 경기 우승마 예측 모형 연구

        최혜민,황나영,황찬경,송종우,Choe, Hyemin,Hwang, Nayoung,Hwang, Chankyoung,Song, Jongwoo 한국통계학회 2015 응용통계연구 Vol.28 No.6

        경마 산업은 국내 합법 사행산업의 대부분을 차지하고 있다. 그러나 사행성 도박이라는 인식 하에 여타 스포츠 산업에 비해 활발한 통계적 분석이 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 다양한 데이터마이닝 기법을 이용하여 우승마를 예측하는 모형 개발에 있다. 모형 적합에 사용한 데이터는 한국 마사회에서 제공하는 자료를 바탕으로 하였으며, 경마 성적표, 경주마 정보, 기수 정보, 조교사 정보 등을 사용하였다. 예측 모형은 크게 두 모형으로 나누어 순위를 기반으로 한 모형과 기록을 기반으로 한 모형으로 적합하였고, 분석 방법으로는 선형회귀분석, 랜덤 포레스트, 로지스틱 회귀 분석을 사용하였다. 그 결과 말 기본 정보와 과거 우승 경력, 기수의 과거 우승 경력 등이 순위 예측에 큰 영향을 미치는 것을 알 수 있었다. 모형 적합에 사용되지 않은 최근 1개월 간 데이터를 이용하여 단승식, 복승식, 삼복승식으로 배팅한 결과 모형 간 큰 차이가 없었고, 모두 양의 수익을 얻을 수 있었다. The Horse race industry has the largest proportion of the domestic legal gambling industry. However, there is limited statistical analysis on horse races versus other sports. We propose prediction models for winning horses in horse races using data mining techniques such as logistic regression, linear regression, and random forest. Horse races data are from the Korea Racing Authority and we use horse racing reports, information of racehorses, jockeys, and horse trainers. We consider two models based on ranks and time records. The analysis results show that prediction of ranks is affected by information on racehorses, number of wins of racehorses and jockeys. We place wagers for the last month of races based on our prediction models that produce serious profits.

      • 기저세포 상피암에 대한 임상적 및 조직학적 관찰

        최혜민,명기범,국홍일 梨花女子大學校 醫科大學 醫科學硏究所 1984 EMJ (Ewha medical journal) Vol.7 No.1

        The clinical and histopathological analysis was done on 28 cases of basal cell epithelioma encountered in the Department of Dermatology, Ewha Womans University Hospital during the past 7 1/2 years period from January 1976 to June 1983. The results obtained were summarized as follows : 1) Of 28 patients, 15 cases were male and 13 cases were female with ratio of 1.16:1. 2) Average age was 53.5 years ranging from 15 to 90 years with the highest incidence rate in the age group 60-69 years. 3) Three cases of basal cell epithelioma in the young age group developed from xeroderma pigmentosum. 4) The average duration of disease was 7.5 years ranging from 1 to 20 years. 5) Twenty seven cases(96.4%) occured on face comprising 11 cases on nose, 8 cases on lower eyelid, 3 cases on cheek, each 1 case on forehead, eyebrow, upper lip, angle of mouth and mandible, and remaining 1 case occured on back. 6) The most common noduloulcerative lesion was observed in 7 cases(25.0%), and then followed by(in order)adenoid type and sclerosing type 6 cases (21.4%) respectively, mixed type 5 cases(17.9%) and keratotic type 4 cases(14.3%).

      • CO_2 레이저의 피부과적 응용 : 색소성 및 혈관성 피부질환에서의 치료 효과 Therapeutic Effects in the Cutaneous Pigmented and Vascular Lesions

        최혜민 梨花女子大學校 醫科大學 醫科學硏究所 1990 EMJ (Ewha medical journal) Vol.13 No.4

        Carbon dioxide(CO_2) laser is the the most commonly used laser in the treatment of cutaneous disorders of the skin. CO_2 laser emits invisible far-infrared radiation of 10,600nm wavelength. This radiation is totally absorbed in a depth of only 0.1~0.2mm of water. Cutaneous tissue has a similar coffficient of absorption since it is 85~90% water. The internal scatter of the laser beam in water is minimal. These two factors, low penetration and minimal scatter, make the CO_2 laser a highly localized tissue-destructive modality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the therapeutic effect and complication of the CO_2 laser on the cutaneous pigmented and vascular lesions. The data of the 110 patients who were treated between October, 1987 and March, 1989 and could be followed up over 3 months at the Department of Dermatology. Ewha Womans University Hospital were analyzed. Patients were treated with Pfizer Laser System Model 20-C CO_2 laser. The power ranges were between 2 and 10W using continuous wave accrding to the size and the shape of the lesions. The CO_2 laser was more effective modality in the treatment of the pgmented lesions. especially lentigenes and solar lentigo than cutaneous vascular lesions. In the cutaneous vascular lesions, CO_2 laser was effective for rosacea and senile angioma.

      • KCI등재

        The Ceiling Strategy as Policy: Limiting Bureaucratic Expansion and Democratization

        최혜민,정지수 서울대학교행정대학원 2017 The Korean Journal of Policy Studies Vol.32 No.1

        It is commonly recognized that the transition to democracy in Korea was associated with economic progress. However, not many scholars have given attention to the role of bureaucracy during the process of democratization, due to the fact that bureaucracy is usually thought of as belonging to politics, not democracy. As a refutation of this general view, first, this paper argues that bureaucracy has been an important contributor to political modernization. Since the post-1945 period, the ‘ceiling’ strategy, which limits the total number of civil servants, was introduced into the personnel management method and system of checks and balances to limit undue political influence over staffing and to control bureaucratic expansion. Second, through this strategy as policy, the bureaucracy legitimately tried to avoid undemocratic political power by the standardized process and allow the coordination. The ceiling policy is originally the product of historical context during colonial and authoritarian period, but the bureaucracy utilizes it as the instrument to reduce corruption. The contribution of this paper is provoking the new insights about democratization from bureaucrat’s perspective which is rarely highlighted.

      • 일광차단제도포후 자외선 조사에 의한 표피색소 세포의 변화에 관한 연구

        최혜민,국홍일,박윤기 梨花女子大學校 醫科大學 醫科學硏究所 1988 EMJ (Ewha medical journal) Vol.11 No.3

        Over-exposure to sunlight may result in sunburn, pigmented skin lesions, solar keratosis, premature aging of skin, or cancer in human skin. Sunscreens protect the structure and function of the human integument from the actinic damage. This protective effect is afforded by active ingredients of sunscreens through absorption, reflection, and/or scattering of the solar radiation impinging on the skin. There are oral and topical sunscreens. Para-aminobenzoic acid(PABA), PABA esters, benzophenones(BZ), cinnamates, salicylates and anthranilates are the topical sunscreens absorbing solar radiation. Most of them absorb UVB, but BZ absorb both UVB and UVA. These investgators observed the effect of the sunscreens by calculating sun protection factor(SPF) before and after application of the sunscreens in human skin. To my knowledge, there are no papers which evaluate morphological changes in the epidermal melanocytes after UVB or UVA irradiation following application of the sunscreens. In this experiment, a total of 150 adult male black mice(C57BL) was used. The animals were divided into one control (application of hydrophilic ointment base) and four experimental(application of PABA, Cinnamate, BZ or homomenthylsalicylate (HMS)) groups. Each group was irradiated by UVB and UVA, respectively. Each of the 5 groups were divided into 5 subgroups according to the days of UV light irradiation ; subgroup A for 2 days, B for 4 days, C for 6 days, D for 8days and E for 10 days. The daily doses of UVB and UVA were 50mJ/cm^2 and 5J/cm^2 respectively. YS UVB-400 and Waldmann UV 800 were used as a light source of UVB and UVA. Skin specimens were taken from both ears of the animals 24h after the last irradiation. The split-DOPA preparation was carried out for observation of the numbers and morphological changes of the epidermal melanocytes. The results are summarized as follows; 1. Changes in the numbers of the epidermal melanocytes : The numbers of the epidermal melanocytes markedly decreased in the experimental groups, especially in the group of PABA application(p<0.01), compared in the control group under UVB irradiation (p<0.01). However, only the group of BZ application showed a significant decrease in the numbers compared to the control group under UVA irradiation(p<0.01, p<0.05). 2. Changes in the size of the epidermal melanocytes ; Each experimental group, especially the group of PABA application (p<0.01), showed a significant decrease in the sizes of the epidermal melanocytes under UVB irradiation(p<0.01, p<0.05). On the other hand, only the group of BZ application showed a significant decrease in the sizes compared to the control group under UVA irradiation(p<0.05) From the results, it seems to be sure that PABA, Cinnamate, BZ, HMS can protect UVB from sunlight in the skin of black mice. Furthermore, BZ was effective for protection of UVB and UVA together.

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