Deeper Integration or Wider Integration?: the case of Gulf Cooperation Council

( Houcine Boughanmi ),( Ahmed Al-shammakhi ),( Alessandro Antimiani ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2016 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.31 No.2

We empirically evaluate whether fostering trade partnership within the region is a better economic course of action for the Gulf Cooperation Council than engaging into preferential trade arrangements with well-established trade blocs outside the region. We use the 8.1 version of Global Trade Analysis Project to analyze four scenarios representing various Gulf Cooperation Council trade integration paths, taking into consideration the issue of non-Tariff Barriers and trade facilitation measures. Results indicate that the Gulf Cooperation Council gain from lifting tariffs and non-tariff barriers on trade with the Greater Arab Free Trade Area subgroups and with the European Union is limited unless such barrier lifting is complemented with trade facilitation measures. With trade facilitation, the full completion of Greater Arab Free Trade Area scenario yields the highest welfare gain for the Gulf Cooperation Council, while the Gulf Cooperation Council-European Union Free Trade Agreement scenario yields positive but smaller gain. The small gain with Gulf Cooperation Council-European Union scenario is explained by the negative terms of trade effects following trade liberalization. These results underscore the importance of deepening Greater Arab Free Trade Area’s scope through introduction of trade facilitation measures as well as measures beyond merchandize trade liberalization.

The Trade Potential of the Arab Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC): A Gravity Model Approach

Houcine Boughanmi 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2008 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.23 No.1

The GCC region has recently witnessed the creation of a customs union between the countries of the region as well as the signature of many free trade areas with countries/blocs outside the region (i.e. US and EU). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential of trade of the GCC countries within the context of the old and the emerging preference trade arrangements in the region of Middle East and North African Countries (MENA). A gravity trade model was estimated based on pooled time series-cross-sectional data of bilateral trade of the MENA countries with their major trading partners. The results indicate that in spite of the fact that the share of GCC intra-trade is too small in absolute terms, it is actually higher than expected on the basis of underlying trade determinants. However the level of the GCC intra-trade has not changed significantly over the years and had probably reached its full potential during the first decade of the GCC creation. Trade with the Mashreq countries are more than expected, while it is less than expected with the Maghreb countries despite the implementation of the GAFTA a decade ago. The GCC trade with the European Union and the US was found to be quite intensive although no formal trade arrangement existed between the GCC and both blocs for the time-period used in the analysis. The results suggest that the newly signed trade arrangements are promising in enhancing new opportunities of trade in the GCC region. JEL classification: F15 The GCC region has recently witnessed the creation of a customs union between the countries of the region as well as the signature of many free trade areas with countries/blocs outside the region (i.e. US and EU). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential of trade of the GCC countries within the context of the old and the emerging preference trade arrangements in the region of Middle East and North African Countries (MENA). A gravity trade model was estimated based on pooled time series-cross-sectional data of bilateral trade of the MENA countries with their major trading partners. The results indicate that in spite of the fact that the share of GCC intra-trade is too small in absolute terms, it is actually higher than expected on the basis of underlying trade determinants. However the level of the GCC intra-trade has not changed significantly over the years and had probably reached its full potential during the first decade of the GCC creation. Trade with the Mashreq countries are more than expected, while it is less than expected with the Maghreb countries despite the implementation of the GAFTA a decade ago. The GCC trade with the European Union and the US was found to be quite intensive although no formal trade arrangement existed between the GCC and both blocs for the time-period used in the analysis. The results suggest that the newly signed trade arrangements are promising in enhancing new opportunities of trade in the GCC region. JEL classification: F15

The Trade Potential of the Arab Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC): A Gravity Model Approach

( Dr. Houcine Boughanmi ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2008 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.23 No.1

The GCC region has recently witnessed the creation of a customs union between the countries of the region as well as the signature of many free trade areas with countries/blocs outside the region (i.e. US and EU). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential of trade of the GCC countries within the context of the old and the emerging preference trade arrangements in the region of Middle East and North African Countries (MENA). A gravity trade model was estimated based on pooled time series-cross-sectional data of bilateral trade of the MENA countries with their major trading partners. The results indicate that in spite of the fact that the share of GCC intra-trade is too small in absolute terms, it is actually higher than expected on the basis of underlying trade determinants. However the level of the GCC intra-trade has not changed significantly over the years and had probably reached its full potential during the first decade of the GCC creation. Trade with the Mashreq countries are more than expected, while it is less than expected with the Maghreb countries despite the implementation of the GAFTA a decade ago. The GCC trade with the European Union and the US was found to be quite intensive although no formal trade arrangement existed between the GCC and both blocs for the time-period used in the analysis. The results suggest that the newly signed trade arrangements are promising in enhancing new opportunities of trade in the GCC region.

Deeper Integration or Open Regionalism in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA): A CGE Approach

Abdallah Akintola(Abdallah Akintola ),Houcine Boughanmi(Houcine Boughanmi ),Alessandro Antimiani(Alessandro Antimiani ),Lokman Zaibet(Lokman Zaibet ),Hemesiri Kotagama(Hemesiri Kotagama ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2022 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.37 No.4

The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is a regional association based on the principle of open regionalism to promote liberalization through trade and investment facilitation. This study compares two main scenarios with the ingredients of a deeper regional integration compared to the IORA's present open regionalism status. Scenario I evaluates the effects of gradual tariff cuts on IORA, while Scenario II combines the impact of tariff cuts, non-tariff measures (NTM) reduction, and trade facilitation. A recent recursive dynamic model, called Global Trade Analysis Project recursive dynamic model (GTAP-RD), was used to understand the adjustment path. The result shows welfare gain for a ll IORA countries when a t rade liberalization involving tariff cuts is complemented with NTM reduction and trade facilitation. In addition, the “NTM spillover” effect on some non-IORA members (the rest of Gulf Cooperation Council, the rest of Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement, and the United Kingdom) was observed. The results suggest that IORA has more to gain if it involves a deeper regional integration than the present form of open regionalism.