RISS 검색 - 국내학술지논문 상세보기

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study were to evaluate the effect of best management practices (BMPs) of Haean highland agricultural catchment ($62.8km^2$) under future climate change using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was setup using 3 years (2009~2011) of observed daily streamflow, suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) data at three locations of the catchment. The SWAT was calibrated with average 0.74 Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency for streamflow, and 0.78, 0.63, and 0.79 determination coefficient ($R^2$) for SS, T-N, and T-P respectively. Under the HadGEM-RA RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the future precipitation and maximum temperature showed maximum increases of 8.3 % and $4.2^{\circ}C$ respectively based on the baseline (1981~2005). The future 2040s and 2080s hydrological components of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow showed changes of +3.2~+17.2 %, -0.1~-0.7 %, and -9.1~+8.1 % respectively. The future stream water quality of suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) showed changes of -5.8~+29.0 %, -4.5~+2.3 %, and +3.7~+17.4 % respectively. The future SS showed wide range according to streamflow from minus to plus range. We can infer that this was from the increase of long-term rainfall variability in 2040s less rainfalls and 2080s much rainfalls. However, the results showed that the T-P was the future target to manage stream water quality even in 2040s period.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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3 Shope, C. L., "Using the SWAT model to improve process descriptions and define hydrologic partitioning in South Korea" 18 (18): 539-557, 2014

4 Chen, J., "The mechanism and scenarios of how mean annual runoff varies with climate change in Asian monsoon areas" 517 : 595-606, 2014

5 IPCC, "The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" Cambridge University Press 2013

6 Neitsch, S. L., "Soil and water assessment tool, Theoretical Documentation" 2001

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8 정차미, "SWAT모형을 이용한 용담댐 유역의 유량 전망 결과 비교 연구" 한국수자원학회 48 (48): 439-449, 2015

9 이용준, "SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (II)" 대한토목학회 28 (28): 665-672, 2008

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