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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Sobri Harun (검색결과 4 건)
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Development of an Optimal Reservoir Pumping Operation for Adaptation to Climate Change
Tarmizi Ismail,Sobri Harun,Zaitul Marlizawati Zainudin,Shamsuddin Shahid,Abu Bakar Fadzil,Usman Ullah Sheikh 대한토목학회 2017 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.21 No.1
Optimization of operation rule curve of Layang reservoir located in southern part of peninsular Malaysia under climate change uncertainties has been presented in this study. Downscaled climate data were incorporated in a lumped rainfall-runoff model to project daily reservoir inflow, which was then used to determine the reservoir operation rule curves to minimize the operation cost. The results reveal that climatic change will cause a rise of temperature in the range of 1.5-2.9oC, but decrease in rainfall in most of the months in the end of this century which will casue a change in the seasonal pattern of inflow to reservoir. Comparison of historical and model generated operation costs indicates that annual savings of 23% and 33% is possible with optimized reservoir operation rule curves. Assessment of the performance of the optimized operation curve under climate change scenarios shows that it will be able to cope with the changing pattern of reservoir inflow with proper adjustment. It is expected that the method presented in this paper to derive pumping operation curves to optimize the total volume of water to be pumped from various sources to reservoir can be useful for reservoir operators in the context of climate change.
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Hafed Qasem Ahmad,Samira A. Kamaruddin,Sobri B. Harun,Nadhir Al-Ansari,Shamsuddin Shahid,Ruqaya M. Jasim 대한토목학회 2021 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.25 No.11
The absence of a dense rainfall monitoring network and longer period data are the major hindrances of hydroclimatic study in arid and semi-arid regions. An attempt has been made for the evaluation of spatiotemporal changes in droughts at the northern semi-arid region of Iraq for the period 1981 − 2018 using high-resolution (0.05°) precipitation data of Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS). The performance of CHIRPS in replicating rainfall and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for different timescales at eleven locations for the available period of observation data (2000 − 2014) was evaluated. The SPI was also used to estimate drought frequency and evaluate drought trends at all the CHIRPS grid points. A modified version of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test was employed for a robust evaluation of the spatial distribution of temporal trends in droughts. The results showed a good ability of CHIRPS in reconstructing observed SPI with a correlation coefficient ranged from 0.64 to 0.87, BIAS between 1.05 and 1.81, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency from 0.39 to 0.55, and Willmott Index between 0.67 and 0.79. The CHIRPS also able to reconstruct the time series and probability distribution of observed SPI reasonably. Spatial distribution of droughts revealed a higher frequency of droughts of all categories and timescales in the east and north of Northern Iraq, mainly due to high rainfall variance. The MK test revealed a reduction in 6- and 12-month droughts in the northwest and an intensification at a few northeastern grids. It indicates droughts became more recurrent in the already drought-prone region and lessened in a less drought-prone region.
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Application of SVM and SWAT Models for Monthly Streamflow Prediction, a Case Study in South of Iran
Milad Jajarmizadeh,Elham Kakaei Lafdani,Sobri Harun,Azadeh Ahmadi 대한토목학회 2015 KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol.19 No.1
The present study compares the results of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine (SVM) topredict the monthly streamflow of arid regions located in the southern part of Iran, namely the Roodan watershed. Data collected overa period of 19 years (1990-2008) was used to predict the monthly streamflow. Calibration (training) and validation (testing) wereperformed within the same period for both the models after the preparation of the required data. A semi auto-calibration was performedfor the SWAT model. Also, the best input combination of the SVM model was identified using the Gamma Test (GT). Finally, thereliability of the SWAT and SVM models were evaluated based on performance criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) modelefficiency coefficient and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The obtained results from the development of the SWAT model andSVM model indicated satisfying performance in predicting the monthly streamflow in the large arid region. The SWAT obtained NSand RMSE values of 0.83 and 6.1 respectively, and the SVM obtained NS and RMSE values of 0.84 and 6.75 respectively for thevalidation (testing) period. Results indicate that for high flows of more than 19 (m3/s), both models predict flow with over and underestimation in the validation (testing) period. Moreover, the SVM has a closer value for the average flow in comparison to the SWATmodel; whereas the SWAT model outperformed for total runoff volume with a lower error in the validation period.
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