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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Selahattin Incecik (검색결과 1 건)
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Regional climate simulations and future projections by COSMO-CLM in Istanbul
Cemre Yoruk Sonuc,Yurdanur Unal,Selahattin Incecik 한국대기환경학회 2021 한국대기환경학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2021 No.10
Climate change can affect human health by making our air less healthy to breathe. Atmospheric warming associated with climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone levels, particularly in mid-latitude regions of the world. Rising ozone levels cause serious health problems, especially in summer, and may pose difficulties in complying with ozone air quality standards in the future. The study aims to investigate the ability of the COSMO-CLM model to reproduce the climate characteristics over Turkey and northwest of the country and emphasizing Istanbul to evaluate the projections of the regional climate model by determining the future changes in the temperature and precipitation variables. This study examines the present (1991-2005) and high-resolution climate projections for (2041-60) and (2071-90) over Istanbul and its surrounding areas at a spatial resolution of 0.0275o (2.8 km), employing the IPCC RCP 8.5 emission scenario by the COSMO-CLM_5.0 regional climate model forced by the earth system model MPI-ESM-LR. The performance of the model was validated by comparing simulation results to the observations. Climate projections show significant warming expected over the whole area in the period of 2041-2060 and especially in 2071-2090. Warming over Istanbul is around 1.25°C in the first period but, significantly higher in the case of the second period, which reaches up to 3.0°C. With the effect of Marmara at the south and the Black Sea on the north, warming increases in the coastline are higher than in the inner parts of the city. Moreover, in the spring and summer seasons, the north of Istanbul warms up more slowly than the south, the difference in the rate of temperature increase is expected to be more pronounced in the summer season. An increase in summer temperatures is expected especially in the southern coastal parts of the city. This will lead to an increase in ozone levels with the effect of land-sea breeze circulations. A significant reduction in precipitation is particularly evident at the end of the century over Istanbul. It is expected that the greatest decrease will occur in the spring season in both periods. The decrease in precipitation will lead to an increase in particulate pollution caused by Saharan dust transport, which affects Istanbul, especially in the spring season.
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