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Short-Term and Long-Term Stroke Survival: The Belgrade Prognostic Study
Sanja Medic,Ljiljana Beslac-Bumbasirevic,Darija Kisic-Tepavcevic,Tatjana Pekmezovic 대한신경과학회 2013 Journal of Clinical Neurology Vol.9 No.1
Background and Purpose The aims of this study were to determine the 28-day and 1-year survival rates after first-ever ischemic stroke and to identify their baseline predictors. Methods We prospectively and consecutively collected data on 300 patients with first-ever acute ischemic stroke admitted to 2 major neurological institutions for cerebrovascular diseases in Belgrade during March 2008. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative 28-day and 1-year survival rates, and the predictive values of different variables were assessed by Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Results The cumulative 28-day and 1-year survival rates of ischemic stroke patients in the cohort were 81.0% and 78.3%, respectively. The multivariate predictive model revealed that hypertension (p=0.017), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (p=0.001), and in-hospital medical complications (p=0.029) were significant unfavorable independent outcome predictors, while early physical therapy (p=0.001) was a significant favorable prognostic factor for the 28-day mortality in our patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (p=0.001), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (p=0.001), and in-hospital complications (p=0.008) remained significant predictors of 1-year mortality. Conclusions The findings support the need for optimal control of vascular risk factors and treatment of atherosclerotic disease as well as appropriate prevention and management of inhospital complications of stroke.
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