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The Impact of the Chinese Renminbi on Korean and Japanese Exports to the United States
SaangJoon Baak 한국경제연구학회 2011 Korea and the World Economy Vol.12 No.3
This paper examines the impacts of the real exchange rates of the Chinese renminbi against the US dollar on Japanese and Korean exports to the United States. Empirical test results, which have analyzed the quarterly data covering 1986Q1 to 2008Q2, show different long-run impacts of the renminbi in the export functions of the two countries. In particular, depreciation of the renminbi has a positive impact on Japanese exports but a negative impact on Korean exports. However, since some stability tests indicate a structural break in the export functions, the functions are re-estimated for the recent sub-period (1995Q1 to 2008Q2). Different from the estimation results for the whole sample period, in tests with the subperiod data, depreciation of the renminbi turns out to have a positive impact on Korean exports and insignificant impacts on Japanese exports. In addition, the coefficients of the real GDP of the US and the real exchange rate of the Japanese yen and the Korean won are estimated to be consistent with conventional predictions. Finally, it should be noted that only the estimated values of the renminbi coefficient change drastically across the two period data sets, while other coefficient values are quite stable.