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An Error Updating System for Real-time Flood Forecasting based on Robust Procedure
Li Qian,Bao Weimin,Qian jinglin 대한토목학회 2015 KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol.19 No.3
An updating technique is a tool to update the forecasts of mathematical flood forecasting model based on observed real-time data,and is an important element in a flood forecasting. The quality of the final updating results depends primarily on the quality ofobserved data. However, the input flow to reservoirs, or so called “observed input flow”, is usually calculated by the observed waterstage, outflow, and stage-storage relation curve. In this process, coarse errors which have great negative influence on updating areoften created. This paper introduces a robust theory in real-time forecasting updating, and proposes an error updating system withrobust procedure to limit the influence of coarse errors. Cases of ten reservoirs are studied to test the proposed system. Resultsindicate that the proposed robust procedure deflates the influence of outliers. The results of real-time updating with robust procedurein flood forecasting are better than those without robust procedure.