The change of East Asian Monsoon to $CO_2$ increase

Kripalani, R.H.,Oh, J.H.,Chaudhari, H.S. Korea Association For Quaternary Research 2006 제사기학회지 Vol.20 No.1

이 연구는 동아시아 (중국, 한국, 그리고 일본) 여름몬순과 그 변동성을 MME (multi-model ensemble)을 이용하여 IPCC AR4 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report) 실험의22개 접합 기후모델 결과 자료로 분석하였다. 결과자료들은 사용 가능한 모든 모델의 평균값을 이용하였다. 여름 몬순 기간 동안 최대 강수를 가지는 연주기는 모델에 의해 모의되었으나 장마(Meiyu-Changma-Baiu) 강수밴드의 이동(북쪽)과 연관되어 7월에 나타나는 최소값은 모의하지 못했다. MME 강수 패턴은 북태평양아열대 고기압과 장마전선대의 위치와 연관된 강수의 공간적 분포를 잘 나타내었다. 그러나 중국, 한반도, 그리고 일본의 동해와 인근 해역의 강수는 과소 예측되었다. 마지막으로 $CO_2$ 농도 배증시나리오의 복사 강제에 대한 미래예측을 분석하였다. MME는 $CO_2$ 농도가 배증될 때 동아시아지역에서 강수는 평균 7.8%로 나타났고, $5{\sim}10%$의 변화폭을 보였다. 그러나 이러한 강수의 증가는 통계적으로 한반도와 일본, 그리고 인근 북중국 지역에서만 중요한 의미를 가진다. 강수 예측에서 나타난 변화는 아열대 고기압의 강도 변화에 비례하는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 봄에서 초가을까지 여름 몬순의 지속기간이 길어짐을 확인하였다. The East Asian (China, Korea and Japan) summer monsoon precipitation and its variability are examined from the outputs of the 22 coupled climate models performing coordinated experiments leading to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) following the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique. Results are based on averages of all the available models. The shape of the annual cycle with maximum during the summer monsoon period is simulated by the coupled climate models. However, models fail to simulate the minimum peak in July which is associated with northward shifts of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu precipitation band. The MME precipitation pattern is able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall associated with the location of the north Pacific subtropical high and the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu frontal zone. However precipitation over the east coast of China, Korea-Japan peninsular and the adjoining oceanic regions is underestimated. Future projections to the radiative forcing of doubled $CO_2$ scenario are examined. The MME reveals an increase in precipitation varying from 5 to 10 %, with an average of 7.8 % over the East Asian region at the time of $CO_2$ doubling. However the increases are statistically significant only over the Korea-Japan peninsula and the adjoining north China region. The increase in precipitation may be attributed to the projected intensification of the subtropical high, and thus the associated influx of moist air from the Pacific to inland. The projected changes in the amount of precipitation are directly proportional to the changes in the strength of the subtropical high. Further a possible increase in the length of the summer monsoon precipitation period from late spring through early autumn is suggested.

Changes in Snow Depth Variability over Northeast Asia: Observed and Projections through Coupled Climate Models

Kripalani, Ramesh,Oh, Jai-Ho Korea Association For Quaternary Research 2007 제사기학회지 Vol.21 No.2

Delayed influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode on the East Asia–West Pacific monsoon: possible mechanism

Kripalani, R. H.,Oh, J. H.,Chaudhari, H. S. John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2010 International journal of climatology Vol.30 No.2

<P>This study investigates the possible physical processes for the delayed response of the East Asia–West Pacific summer monsoon to the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) through the Eurasian continent based on composite and correlation analyses. The media carrying the memory for this delayed response is identified.</P><P>Results reveal that the peak positive phase of the dipole during autumn could suppress the following summer monsoon activity over East Asia three seasons later, in particular over the Korea–Japan sector, South China and the adjacent West Pacific region. Composite and correlation analysis suggests that the autumn positive phase of the dipole could induce heavy snow over Eastern Eurasia, north of the Korea–Japan (EENKJ) peninsula, during the following winter and spring seasons. This could increase the temperature gradient conducive to transport cold and dry air from the north towards south over the warmer East Asia–West Pacific domain during the following summer. The sea surface temperature (SST) reveals that the positive phase of the dipole mode during autumn is associated with the warm phase (El Nino) of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Pacific. As the seasons progress through to summer, the warm phase over the Pacific transforms to a developing cold phase (La Nina) with warmer SSTs over the West Pacific. Both the anomalous northerly winds due to heavy snow and the anomalous warm SST over the West Pacific due to La Nina displace the North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) eastwards, resulting in a weak cross-equatorial flow and a weak low-level jet. This could inhibit moisture supply from the Pacific leading to subdued rainfall activity. The footprints of the IODM for delayed response, three seasons later, could be carried by the snow distribution over Eastern Eurasia by the northern route. Furthermore, correlation analysis suggests that the relationships with IODM are slighter stronger than with the ENSO phenomenon. However, partial correlation analysis probably suggests that both the IODM and ENSO work cooperatively for the summer monsoon rainfall anomalies over East Asia–West Pacific region. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society</P>

Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4

Kripalani, R. H.,Oh, J. H.,Chaudhari, H. S. SPRINGER VERLAG 2007 Theoretical and applied climatology Vol.87 No.1-4

Impact of $CO_2$ Increase on East Asian Monsoon

Kripalani, R.H.,Oh, J.H.,Chaudhari, H.S. Korea Association For Quaternary Research 2005 제사기학회지 Vol.19 No.2

Some basic summer precipitation features over East Asia during the $20^{th}-21^{st}$ century as simulated / projected by the 22 coupled climate models under the IPCC AR4 program are investigated. Keeping in view that these are climate runs without prescribed SSTs, models perform well in simulating the regional annual cycle, spatial patterns (not shown) and the inter-annual variability. The projections under the 1% increase in $CO_2$ compounded until reaching double and held constant thereafter reveal that (a) Precipitation is likely to increase in all the months in particular during the summer monsoon (JJA) months. (b) The mean summer monsoon rainfall can increase from 4.2 to 13.5% and its variability is also likely to increase in the warming world due to increase in $CO_2$ (c) Extreme excess and deficient seasonal monsoons are likely to become more intense (not shown here) (d) Once the increase in $CO_2$ is cut-off, the system will reach a state of equilibrium, and then the rate of increase in precipitation is also expected to remain constant.

The Essential Gandhi

Krishna Kripalani 한인문화연구원 1990 한인문화논총 Vol.7ㆍ8 No.-

Message

Krishna Kripalani 한인문화연구원 1982 한인문화논총 Vol.1 No.-

Weather and Climate-related Disaster Management over India

Ramesh Kripalani,Jai-ho Oh 위기관리 이론과 실천 2017 위기관리 이론과 실천 학술대회 Vol.2017 No.12

A huge country with more than a one billion population, India is vulnerable to weather and climate-related disasters. Disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides etc are frequent occurrences. Nearly 10% of the area is prone to floods and nearly 70% is susceptible to droughts. Most of these events occur during the summer monsoon period June through September. India receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during this period. With a huge population exceeding one billion, millions of people are affected by these calamities. India accounts for nearly 25% of deaths which occur over Asia due to this climate related disasters. This presentation at the 11th ICCEM International Conference on Crises and Emergency Management to be held during 15-17 December 2017 will cover in brief the initiatives taken in India to manage these disasters at various levels: local, district, regional and country level.

Trends and Tele-connections among South and East Asian Monsoons

Ramesh Kripalani,Jai-Ho Oh 한국기상학회 2017 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2017 No.10

Discovering Gandhi and Tagore in Korea

Krishna Kripalani 한인문화연구원 1982 한인문화논총 Vol.1 No.-