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Wansik Yu,Eiichi Nakakita,Kosei Yamaguchi,정관수 충북연구원 2016 지역정책연구 Vol.27 No.1
In early September, 2011, local heavy rainfalls due to season’s 12th typhoon, “Talas” caused large flooding and enormous landslide disasters over the Kinki, Chugobku, Shikoku, and 16 missing persons. In these types of extreme events, it is essential to be able to provide as much advance warning as possible. This advance warning requires both quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) and quantitative flood forecasting (QFF). In this study, we assessed the ensemble NWP rainfall with 2km horizontal resolution and 30hr forecast time whether it can produce suitable rainfall or not. This study also proposes pre-processing methodology with a spatial shift of ensemble NWP rainfall fields, in order to improve the accuracy of the ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon ‘Talas’ of 2011 over the two catchmetns, which are Futatsuno (356.1㎢) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2,360㎢), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.