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RISS 인기검색어
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- 저자 : Hamdaoui Mekki (검색결과 3 건)
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Liberalization, Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis
Mekki Hamdaoui 한국국제경제학회 2017 International Economic Journal Vol.31 No.4
This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.
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Inequality of Opportunity and Degree of Human Development: Evidence from Tunisia
Saidi Anis,Hamdaoui Mekki,Ochi Anis 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2021 Journal of Economic Development Vol.46 No.1
There are many socio-economic factors beyond the individual control that can affect human development indicators. In this setting, this paper aims to examine the effects and evolution of unequal opportunities on the distribution of human development indicators embodied by monetary well-being (consumption) and education in Tunisia for the period 2005-2010. We used parametric and non-parametric approach in addition to Dissimilarity-Index and Shapley’s Decomposition to identify most important factors explaining inequality of chances in Tunisia. We found that Father’s education, residence area, and connection to drinking water appears to be the most important background variables affecting well-being profile. However, child’s sex appears to be the most important determinant of the accessibility to education. Inequality of opportunity in consumption and education persists and tends to increase over time which is undesirable for the country. As an economic implication of our results, policy makers must make appropriate policies to reduce intergenerational transmission of parental background and sex discrimination and to overcome traps of inequality for future generations
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Salma Haj fraj,hamdaoui, Mekki,Maktouf, Samir 한국국제경제학회 2018 International Economic Journal Vol.32 No.1
In recent years, numerous studies demonstrated that the effect of exchange rate regimes on economic growth is influenced by several factors. However, the literature rarely takes into account the possible costs associated with improving institutional quality on the choice of exchange systems and the analysis of the effects of shocks in the case of each type of regime. Throughout this research, we analyze the extent of bidirectional shocks according to each regime and compare the shock effects accordingly. The results show that the real exchange rate is less volatile and the shock effect is lower in countries that adopt a fixed exchange rate regime while the exchange rate is more volatile and the shock is higher in countries that adopt a flexible exchange rate regime. To show the effect and persistence of shocks, we carried out a Panel-VAR regression completed by impulse response functions, VAR decomposition and Granger causality tests for 20 countries adopting the first type of exchange regime compared with 20 countries practicing an alternative exchange rate regime in the period from 1996 to 2012.
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