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Fiscal Policy Spillovers through Trade Openness
( Georgios Karras ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2014 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.29 No.3
This paper studies whether trade openness reduces the domestic fiscal multiplier, but increases the impacts of foreign fiscal shocks, i.e., the spillover effect, as suggested by theory. Using annual data from the period of 1970 to 2011, for 179 developed and developing economies, we show that domestic fiscal shocks are less potent in more open economies, while foreign (rest of the world) fiscal shocks are more potent in more open economies.
Costs and Benefits of Dollarization : Evidence from North, Central, and South America
Karras, Georgios 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2002 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.17 No.3
This paper examines the macroeconomic costs and benefits of dollarization. Economic theory suggests that the main benefit is enhanced price stability, while the main cost is higher business-cycle volatility if the dollarizing country's output is not sufficiently correlated with that of the U.S.Data from 1950-1997 are used to estimate various cost and benefit measures for nineteen North, Central,and South American countried. The paper finds that these cost and benefit factors exhibit substantial variability across the ciuntries considered. Furthermore, they are strongly positively correlated: countries(such as Peru) that have a lot to gain from dollarization, also have a lot to lose from it: while countries(such as Canda) that have little to lose by dollarizing, have also little to gain by it. The empirical results can be also used to compare net benefits for individual countries, showing, for example, that Chile is a better dollarization candidate than Mexico.
Macroeconomic Volatility and the Current Account: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries
Georgios Karras 한국국제경제학회 2016 International Economic Journal Vol.30 No.3
This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic volatility and the current account. Using quarterly data for a panel of OECD economies, time-varying relative volatility measures are constructed for GDP, net output, and government consumption. The empirical evidence suggests that current account balances are positively affected by all three volatility measures. Moreover, the current account balance is found to be related positively to output growth and negatively to the growth of government consumption. Evidence from saving and investment rates also suggests that the precautionary saving motive is part of (though perhaps not the entire) mechanism that relates output volatility and the current account. Broadly consistent with the predictions of the standard theoretical model, these estimates are sizable, statistically significant, and robust.
Is Fiscal Policy More Effective During Cyclical Downturns?
Georgios Karras 한국국제경제학회 2014 International Economic Journal Vol.28 No.2
Using a panel data set of 61 countries for the 1952–2007 period, the paper shows that fiscal policy is more potent during downturns than during expansions, and that the difference is substantial: the fiscal multiplier is twice as large when output is below its long-term trend. In particular, the empirical results suggest that during expansions the output ‘multiplier’ is less than one, private consumption is crowded out, and the response of investment is weak; whereas during downturns the output multiplier is greater than one, private consumption is not crowded out, and the response of investment is strong. Differences between expansion and downturn multipliers are found to be greater in low-income countries.
Costs and Benefits of Dollarization: Evidence from North, Central, and South America
( Georgios Karras ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2002 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.17 No.3
This paper examines the macroeconomic costs and benefits of dollarization. Economic theory suggests that the main benefit is enhanced price stability, while the main cost is higher business-cycle volatility if the dollarizing country`s output is not sufficiently correlated with that of the U.S. Data from 1950-1997 are used to estimate various cost and benefit measures for nineteen North, Central, and South American countries. The paper finds that these cost and benefit factors exhibit substantial variability across the countries considered. Furthermore, they are strongly positively correlated: countries (such as Peru) that have a lot to gain from dollarization, also have a lot to lose from it; while countries (such as Canada) that have little to lose by dollarizing, have also little to gain by it. The empirical results can be also used to compare net benefits for individual countries, showing, for example, that Chile is a better dollarization candidate than Mexico.
Economic Integration and Convergence : Lessons form asia, Europe and Latin America
Karras, Georgios 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1997 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.4
This paper examines whether economic integration facilitates convergence in per capita income by investigating the post-war convergence experience within three regional economic areas: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and the Latin American Free Trade Area (LAFTA). A number of different empirical tests and specifications provide evidence that convergence in income per capita has been the strongest and most rapid in the EU, milder but probably present in LAFTA, and nonexistent in ASEAN,(JEL Classification: F15, O41)
Exchange-Rate Regimes and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy
( Georgios Karras ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.1
How does the potency of fiscal policy depend on a country`s exchange-rate regime? The Mundell-Fleming theoretical model predicts that fiscal policy can affect output under both fixed and flexible exchange rates, but that the effect is larger when the exchange rate is fixed. Using a panel data set of 61 countries for the 1951-2007 period, the paper shows that fiscal policy is indeed more potent under fixed exchange rates than under flexible, and that the difference is substantial: the estimated models imply that maintaining a fixed exchange rate raises the long-run fiscal multiplier by roughly a third.
Economic Integration and Convergence: Lessons from Asia, Europe and Latin America
( Georgios Karras ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 1997 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.4
This paper examines whether economic integration facilitates convergence in per capita income by investigating the post-war convergence experience within three regional economic areas: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and the Latin American Free Trade Area (LAFTA). A number of different empirical tests and specifications provide evidence that convergence in income per capita has been the strongest and most rapid in the EU, milder but probably present in LAFTA, and nonexistent in ASEAN. (JEL Classification: F15, O41)