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GROWTH CONSEQUENCES OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: SOME RESULTS FOR TURKEY
ALI F. DARRAT,JAYANTA SARKAR 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2009 Journal of Economic Development Vol.34 No.2
Turkey has become the dominant recipient of FDI inflows in the Western Asian region. We explore if such inflows have promoted growth as expected. Our analysis of the FDI/growth nexus focuses both on the long-and short-run relations and allows for the possibility that growth also responds to other factors. The results support the theoretical priors and support the existence of a robust long-run relationship linking real economic growth with FDI inflows, economic openness and human capital. Among the three growth ingredients, only human capital accumulation (good education) appears capable of stimulating economic growth in the short-run as well. The results further imply that programs to attract larger FDI inflows to Turkey should persist for some time before they can produce noticeable economic benefits.
GROWTH CONSEQUENCES OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT : SOME RESULTS FOR TURKEY
ALI F. DARRAT;JAYANTA SARKAR 경제연구소 2009 Journal of Economic Development Vol.34 No.2
Turkey has become the dominant recipient of FDI inflows in the Western Asian region. We explore if such inflows have promoted growth as expected. Our analysis of the FDI/growth nexus focuses both on the long-and short-run relations and allows for the possibility that growth also responds to other factors. The results support the theoretical priors and support the existence of a robust long-run relationship linking real economic growth with FDI inflows, economic openness and human capital. Among the three growth ingredients, only human capital accumulation (good education) appears capable of stimulating economic growth in the short-run as well. The results further imply that programs to attract larger FDI inflows to Turkey should persist for some time before they can produce noticeable economic benefits.
Explaining the Saving-Investment Relationship with Threshold Effects
Ali F. Darrat,Khaled Elkhal,Faisal B. Al-Khateeb 사람과세계경영학회 2010 Global Business and Finance Review Vol.15 No.1
There have been many attempts to explain the unreasonably high correlation between domestic saving and investment rates. The threshold testing procedure developed by Hansen (1999) provides a framework for testing the effects of key variables relating to capital mobility in conjunction with the saving- investment relationship. Ho (2003) first applied this method to the saving-investment puzzle controlling for thresholds in country size. Extending this model, this paper reports a number of significant thresholds effects for country- size, trade and financial openness measures, age dependency ratios and trade balances. After controlling for threshold effects the relationship between savings and investment is found to be statistically insignificant. Additionally, controlling for the thresholds effects in a dynamic model of the current account allows for direct comparison between the savings-investment coefficient and adjustments to a country’ s external balance.
Explaining Growth in an Emerging Market
Ali F. Darrat i,Khaled Elkhal,Faisal B. Al-Khateeb 사람과세계경영학회 2010 Global Business and Finance Review Vol.15 No.1
We explore whether, and to what extent, financial deepening, human capital and information technology could explain the rapid economic growth that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has experienced in recent years. We find compelling evidence that these factors, particularly human capital and information technology, are indispensable ingredients for promoting economic growth but only over the long-run. Consistent with the underlying theory, our results fail to support significant short-run growth gains from any of the growth factors. Together, these results imply that programs to invigorate the education system and the technological infrastructure in the UAE represent an effective growth strategy for the country, although such efforts must persist even in the absence of any quick growth benefits.
REVISITING THE (IN) EFFICIENCY OF EMERGING STOCK MARKETS
Khaled Elkhal,Ali F Darrat,Tarik M Yousef 사람과세계경영학회 2008 Global Business and Finance Review Vol.13 No.2
Previous evidence on market efficiency in emerging economies could be tainted by the presence of' thin trading and price non-linearity. We examine the impact of' thin trading by decomposing weekly stock returns into permanent and cyclical components and then subject the permanent component (correct index) to a battery of efficiency diagnostic tests: and account for price non-linearity by modeling stock returns in the context of an EGARCH-in-mean Our results from weekly returns in twenty emerging markets are unanimous in rejecting efficiency in all markets after adjustments for thin trading and price non-linearity. We also find evidence that regulatory reforms have enhanced market efficiency but only in some of the sampled markets. implying that emerging markets can benefit from further regulatory changes. Until then. though. several emerging markets remain a potential lucrative source of arbitrage opportunities for international investors
ON BUDGET DEFICITS AND INTEREST RATES : ANOTHER LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE
DARRAT, ALI F. 한국국제경제학회 2002 International Economic Journal Vol.16 No.2
This paper revisits the relationship between government budget deficits and interest rates in Greece. Contrary to the results of Vamvoukas (1997), the evidence I deduce from system estimations of error-correction models consistently denies any causal impact of the deficits on interest rates. Indeed, the high correlation observed between the two variable appears to be the outcome of interest rates causing purposeful changes in the stance of fiscal policy. These findings stand up to numerous sensitivity tests and provide further support to the overwhelming evidence against the crowding-out hypothesis. [E6, H6]