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국제 탄소시장의 교토크레딧 수요공급 불균형에 대한 고찰
유인식(In-Sik Yu),이승묵(Seung-Muk Yi),최경식(Keoung-Sik Choi) 한국에너지기후변화학회 2008 에너지기후변화학회지 Vol.3 No.1
With the decision to formally adopt the Bali Action Plan through COP-13, it has become unavoidable that Korea join in and share the responsibilities for reduction in greenhouse gases after 2012 (post Kyoto). Korea is currently participating in the Carbon market assertively through CDM business, and the government is also presenting diverse range of policy means for participation in and support for international carbon market, Although presumption of future carbon market is an important items that needs to be considered at the time of participation of private sector projects and establishment of national policy, researches for such is yet to be carried out due to high level of uncertainties, Items that need to be considered in presuming the demand and supply for emission rights (or reduction rights) of the future carbon market are extremely diverse. In this study, demand for each country within Annex I have been considered from the perspective of demand for presumption. For supply, CERs, ERUs, and AAU data have been utilized. The outcome of analysis illustrate that the annual average of total anticipated quantity for supply would be 1,650~2,689 MtCO₂e, with annual average of total anticipated demand is 413~490 MtCO₂e, As such the ratio of the total anticipated supply against the total anticipated demand is very high with range of 400~549%, thereby inducing the forecast that substantial quantity of oversupply. This implies that the value of Carbon price within the duration of the reduction (2008-2012) as the responsibilities under the I st Kyoto Protocol. Level of accuracy of analysis must be continually elevated through continuous monitoring as it contains numerous uncertainties including Hot air purchase strategy of counties contained in the Annex 1, early actions of corporations within USA, and possibility of amendment of Kyoto Protocol.
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