카타르의 금융정책 분석

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul),김중관(Kim, Joong-Kwan) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2012 중동문제연구 Vol.11 No.4

Qatar is using its fiscal space, generated from an increase in hydrocarbon production and high prices, to implement a large public spending program to maintain strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector in the medium term and improving living standards. Headline inflation remains subdued, but inflation risks have risen somewhat due to a permanent increase in public sector wages, which underscores the need for fiscal policy to monitor aggregate demand and the central bank to manage liquidity. The banking sector remains profitable and strong with a capital adequacy ratio of 22.3 percent, average return on assets of 2.7 percent, and non-performing loans ratio of 2.3 percent at end-June 2011. The non-financial corporations are also in an expansionary phase–profits are at pre-crisis levels, cash is abundant, default rates are low, and financing conditions remain easy. The central bank should monitor its growth and stand ready to use macro prudential instruments to prevent the building up of excessive risks. Closing regulatory gaps in the financial system and continuing with efforts to develop the domestic bond market are needed to further strengthen financial stability while developing the financial system. Further improvements in statistics will be essential, which will also require greater coordination between sectors. A cap on remunerated deposits of QCB and successive reduction in policy deposit rates proved successful in driving out short-term arbitrage funds that were intermediated through the banking system. Issuance of government bonds and sukuk coinciding with the imposition of the cap on central bank deposits, and issuance of treasury bills in lieu of central bank certificates of deposit facilitated the mopping up of structural liquidity from the banking system over a longer period, while shifting the cost from the central bank’s balance sheet to the government.

Post-ArabSpring 시기 중동 패권분쟁과 평화: 패권안정론에 대한 비판적 시각

정상률 ( Jung Sang-ryul ) 한국외국어대학교 중동연구소 2019 중동연구 Vol.38 No.1

In the 1970s when the hegemony of the US was declining considerably, some neo-realist scholars emphasized the necessity of maintaining the supremacy of the United States, and they created the hegemonic stability theory. Therefore, the hegemonic stability theory is an expression of Americanism, a kind of American centrism. However, structuralist scholars and liberal scholars have criticized the hegemonic stability theory. The hegemonic stability theory has been criticized because of the ambiguity of the ‘hegemony’ concept, the problems of the theoretical composition of this theory, ideological bias, and neglecting the connectivity between domestic class-social structure-state within each nation-state and international relations. This article is based on the question of whether the hegemonic stability theory that ‘the existence of hegemon stabilizes the system’ properly explains the instability factors in the Middle East area in the era of Post-ArabSpring. This paper also emphasizes that the competition of hegemony of the three major actors in the Middle East - the United States, which is recognized as a hegemonic state in the Middle East, Shiite central state, Iran which is judged to seeks hegemony in the Middle East, and the Sunni group IS, which has pursued supremacy beyond the Middle East - is an instability factor of the Middle East international order.

일반논문 : 이슬람 국가론: 이란 울라마 통치론을 중심으로

정상률 ( Sang Ryul Jung ) 한국외국어대학교 글로벌정치연구소 2014 글로벌정치연구 Vol.7 No.1

1970년대에 미국을 비롯한 서구 자본주의 경제가 새로운 공황으로 접어들면서 ‘자본주의 국가(Capitalist State)’에 대한 논쟁이 부상했었다. 2008년에 시작된 미국발 모기지론 (mortgage loan)으로 촉발된 세계 금융-산업 위기와 그 이후 인구에 회자되고 있는 유럽몇몇 국가의 경제위기는 또 다시 ‘자본주의 국가’에 대한 논쟁을 증폭시킬 것으로 예측된다. 1979년 이란 이슬람혁명으로 구축된 (시아) 이란이슬람공화국, 2001년 사우디아라비아 출신 오사마 빈 라덴과 이집트 출신 아이만 자와히리가 주도한 9.11 테러로 크게 부상한 알 카에다 등 정치이슬람 세력들의 궁극적 목표인 이슬람국가 건설 시도, 최근 이슬람 수니파 극단주의 무장단체인 ‘이라크·레반트 이슬람국가’(ISIL, The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant)의 ‘칼리파 국가(이슬람국가) 선포’ 등으로 인해서 ‘이슬람국가’에 대한 학문적 관심이 크게 부상했다. ‘(이슬람주의) 테러와의 전쟁’ 시기에 ‘이슬람국가’에 대한 이해의 필요성이 증대되고 있다고 판단되며, 이 논문은 그러한 의미에서 국가론 연구 영역을 확장하는데 일정 역할을 할 것으로 판단된다. 이란은 1979년 호메이니의 이슬람 혁명의 결과 울라마 통치론, 즉 이슬람국가를 건설 했다. 이슬람국가는 샤리아(이슬람법), 즉 코란과 하디스에 기반한 국가이다. 이란은 울라마 통치론과 현대 3권 분립의 민주주의를 결합한 특이한 형태의 정치체제를 구축했다. 최고지도자가 정치, 종교 최고지도자이고 국가 원수이며, 국내외 정책의 최종 결정자이다. (시아)이슬람국가인 이란이슬람공화국에 대한 이해는 국가론의 연구 영역을 확대할 뿐 아니라, 우리의 대 이란 정책의 기반을 제공할 것이다. There has been constant controversy concerning ‘capitalist state’ since many scholars had perceived the crisis of capitalist economy in America and western Europe in 1970s`. The crisis of mortgage loan in America in 2008 and European economy in 2011 will re-raised controversy concerning ‘capitalist state.’ The same as this circumstance, controversy concerning ‘Islamic state’ has been generated in the end of 1970s` and re-generated in 2000s` as the result of 9.11 terror and ``war of terror.`` The new religious leaders of Iran has built the government of Ulama ruling and Islamic state just since Islamic revolution in 1979. Islamic state is the state based on Sharia(Islamic law), in other words Koran and Hadith. The political system of Iran is exceptional one mixed the government of Ulama ruling and separation of power. Supreme religious leader is the ruler(head) of state and highest decision maker in decision making process of the domestic and foreign policy. I think that this paper will enlarge on the state theory including capitalist state, green state, peace state and the like, and provide the basis to our decision making to Iran.

마크디시의 살라피즘과 IS의 살라피 지하디즘

정상률(Jung, Sangryul) 한국이슬람학회 2016 한국이슬람학회논총 Vol.26 No.1

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, present leader of IS(Islamic State), declared on June 29, 2014 that Khilafah returned(The Return of Khilafah). IS has been built on Salafism, state ideology by Salafism Jihadists. The first founder of IS is Abū Mus’ab az-Zarqāwī that founded <Jama'at al-Tawhid wa-al-Jihad>(Society for Monotheism and Jihad) in 1999. Al-Zarqāwī was a petty criminal and an alcoholic, but he became a Salafism jihadist since he met Abu Muhammad Aasim al-Maqdisi in prison in 1990’s. Both of al-Maqdisi and al-Zarqāwī were born in Nablus in West Bank, so they felt brotherhood to each other much more. Especially, al-Zarqāwī has fallen under the influence of Al-Maqdisi. Al-Zarqāwī became a Salafism jihadist by influence of Al-Maqdisi’s Salafism. Al-Maqdisi has been one of the Salafism jihadists that follows pious Predecessors, as-Salaf as-Saleh and that strenuously insists that have to follow the robust belief of the early Muslims including Muhammad, the Companions(Sahabah), the Followers(Tabi‘un), the Followers of the Followers(Tabi‘ al-Tabi‘in)that provided Muslim the epitome of Islamic practice. In this paper, author reviewed Salafism in Islamic history, exchange of Salafism thought and Salafism ideology between two person, and then analyzed al-Maqdisi’s Salafism showing in Millat Ibrahim, al-Maqdisi’s work. In conclusion, the author of this paper insists that al-Maqdisi’s Salafism thought had a great effect on formation of al-Zarqāwī’s violent Salafist jihadism, and al-Zarqāwī’s Salafist jihadism has become a basic ideology of IS building. Al-Zarqāwī’s Salafist jihadism has become a violent ideology, has showed a seditious act of violence to world citizens. Present IS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is an extremist standing on Salafist jihadism.

이라크 부족주의 연구 - 사담 시대 정치 엘리트와 신부족주의 관계를 중심으로 : 이라크 부족주의 연구

정상률(Jung Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2006 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.27 No.1

Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time. But the role of tribe and tribalism was being declining in the process of nation-state building. As soon as it came to power in July 1968, the Bath Party announced in its Communique No.1 its rejection of "tribalism." ""We are against religious sectarianism, racism, and tribalism."" In later years, too, in official party ideology tribal shaikhs and tribalism have been regarded as the epitome of backwardness and social reaction. This policy to the tribalism has been continued in Saddam era since 1987. But anti-tribalism policy was changed in the late 1980s or in the early 1990s. The reason was that because Saddam"s regime faced in crisis of legitimacy not only in Arab society but also from outside world. Especially there was shii Intifada, anti-Saddam regime movement in the south Iraq in 1991. Saddam"s tribalism policy was centered on his tribe, the Albu Nasir tribe and some major tribes, the Dulaym tribal confederation, the Shammar tribal confederation, the al-Juburi tribal confederation, the Ubaydis tribal confederation, the Azza tribal confederation, the Takrit tribal confederation. Albu Nasir tribe is composed of core of power and other major tribes the first one of several circles of power. What is the meaning of study of tribalism? First, we have to consider tribe as the political actor in the Middle East, especially in Iraq because tribe is the entity in political process of Iraq. Second, We can ask following; what"s the status of tribe in state-society relations in Iraq? Is the tribe a part of state or a part of society in historical changing era? In Saddam era after 1990, there is the trend of statization of tribe or tribalization of state in Iraq. Third, there is dispute about "the character of state" of Iraq. Is the state of Iraq tribal state, or capitalist state(or state in capitalist society), or bureaucratic authoritative state, or Islamic state, rentier state? These dispute is very important issue in social science, especially political science. Fourth, we have to consider about the trend of political, social, economic change after 2003 Iraq war as social scientist. The study of every social scientist of Middle East, therefore, will be centered on the tribe or tribalism.

이라크 종교엘리트와 부족주의 관계 연구 - 사담시대 정치시아주의를 중심으로

정상률(Jung Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2007 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.28 No.1

  Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time.<BR>  Political Shi"ism in Iraq was a movement group to resist Baath regime but not anti-Arab nationalist. Because Arab political Shi"ists were alienated from Baath regime in political, economic, social area. Arab political Shi"ists have double identity, Arabs-Iraqi-Shi"ists. The leaders of political Shi"ism were not born in a specific family and tribe, but grown in religious environment of specific family. They have not given emphasis tribal value, but religious value and democratic participation in decision making process.<BR>  After Iraq nation-state building, especially in the Saddam regime era, al-Sadr family and al-Hakim family have been the leader"s families in political Shi"ism. So I think that there is some relation between religious elite and tribe. But these Shi"a religious elites didn"t emphasize tribal value. I think, therefore, that there is Iraqi Shi"a religious elite family or tribe, but there is no meaning relation between religious elite and tribalism.

알-마와르디의 ｢알-아흐캄｣에 나타난 칼리파제론 연구

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2014 중동문제연구 Vol.13 No.4

This paper reviews Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya that Māwardī wrote about the Imamate in the 11th century. Most of the political Islam groups, including IS (Islamic State), have attempted to build a Caliphate(Imamate), that is, an Islamic state. We need to understand what a Caliphate (Imamate) is, that Islamic political philosophers and political Islamic groups have desired to set up for a long time. Māwardī wrote Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya in the 11th century when the Abbasid Caliphs’political and religious authority was completely lost. He wanted to restore an Imamate political and religious system. He explains a method of succession in which an Imam can be appointed by his predecessor or be elected by the election council composed of 1 - 6 electors. Māwardī adduced several methods of appointment and election in Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya. The Imamate that Mawardi finally proposed was a kind of‘Divine Right of Imamate,’ and it was a theocracy. I think that IS’s Caliphate will be an Islamic theocracy. This means that the state characteristic of IS’s Caliphate is Islamic, in other words, an Islamization of the state.

이라크 군부엘리트와 부족주의 관계 연구 : 사담시대의 군부엘리트의 부족 기반을 중심으로

정상률 ( Sang Ryul Jung ) 韓國中東學會 2009 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.29 No.3

Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time. Before Saddam regime, Iraqi military elite has become an axis of power elite because of frequent military coup and war. In fact, as soon as it came to power in July 1968, the Bath Party announced its rejection of `tribalism` in its Communique No.1. "We are against religious sectarianism, racism, and tribalism." In later years, tribal shaikhs and tribalism have been regarded as the epitome of backwardness and social reaction in official party ideology. This policy to the tribalism has been continued in Saddam era since 1987. But anti-tribalism policy was changed in the late 1980s or in the early 1990s. The reason was that because Saddam`s regime faced in crisis of legitimacy not only in Arab society but also from outside world. Saddam has recruited members of his tribal and clan, Albu Nasir tribal and Beijat clan, as major member of military and information services. He has made Iraq tribal state through the `state-ization` of the tribe and the tribalization of the state, and through the militarization of his tribe and tribalization of military. In post-Saddam era, too, tribalism will be the major factor and variable in Iraqi political, social change.

DABIQ에 나타난 IS의 칼리파제론 연구

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul),이종화(Lee, Jong-Wha) 한국중동학회 2015 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.35 No.3

Ultimate goal of Islamic State(IS), which is based on Iraq-Sham/Lebant and is expanding its control area, is to establish Khilafah, in other words Islamic State. IS separate the world into Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb, and then is pursuing expansion of Dar al-Islam. IS has designed its road map to accomplish this goal as following; hijrah(emigration) →Jamaah(congregation) →destabilization taghut(idolatry) → tamkin(consolidation) → Khilafah(Caliphate). This study is aimed at a critical review on Khilafah(Califate), Islamic state which IS want to establish ultimately through analysis of digital journals for public relations, DABIQ ISSUE series(DABIQ ISSUE NO.1~DABIQ ISSUE NO.6). IS began to publish DABIQ ISSUE series on July, 2014, and on January, 2015, DABIQ ISSUE NO.6 was published. Khilafah is the same kind of Islamic theocracy that several Islamic philosophers or Islamic thinkers deemed a ideal community and many political Islamic organizations longed for establishment. I am sure that, in the basis of this analysis, we can understand what IS’s concluding goal is and what its strategy to establish Khilafah is, and that we can respond to IS’s action.

중동분쟁과 석유-가스 파이프라인의 정치경제

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2015 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.36 No.2

국제분쟁은 왜 발생하는가? 대부분의 국제정치학자들은 국제분쟁 원인이 인간의 생물학적․심리학적 원인, 국가(국내) 정치구조, 무정부적 국제정치 구조에 있음을 강조한다. 대부분의 분쟁은 위 세 원인이 중복되어, 즉 ‘복합적 원인’으로 인해서 발생한다. 중동에서의 많은 분쟁도 정치 지도자의 공격적 개성, 중동 국가들의 국내 구조 및 중동 국제구조에 원인이 있다. 종교-종파, 민족적-종족적 이해, 정파의 이해, 경제적 이해, 석유와 가스 및 파이프라인 등은 중동 국가들의 국내 구조 및 중동 국제관계를 구성한다. 본 글에서 필자는 ‘2003년 미국-이라크 전쟁(이라크 전쟁, 제2차 걸프전쟁)’과 최근 ‘IS와의 전쟁’도 몇 가지 원인이 중첩되어 발생하고 심화되며, 장기화되는 것으로 분석했다. 그중에서도 석유와 가스 및 파이프라인이 중요한 분쟁 원인이 되고 있음을 확인하였다. 2003년 미-이라크 전쟁은 미국 내 네오콘 그룹 구성원들의 석유산업과의 연관성, 미국의 이라크 석유 생산 통제권과 유가 결정의 통제권 확보가 주요원인이었다. 이는 분쟁원인의 국내․국제적 구조에 그 원인이 있음을 확인한것이다. ‘IS와의 전쟁’은 걸프에서 생산된 가스를 유럽으로 수출하기 위한 가스 파이프라인 계획이 중요한 원인이자 전쟁의 장기화 원인이라고 평가된다.2014년 9월 22일부터 시리아지역 IS에 대한 공습으로 시작된 IS와의 전쟁은 장기화 조짐을 보이고 있다. IS의 다양한 형태의 잔인한 인권유린 행위에 대해 IS격퇴의 필요성이 대두했음에도 불구하고 IS와의 전쟁이 장기화될 조짐을 보이는 것은 시리아를 지나가는 석유․가스 파이프라인의 정치경제 때문이다. 위두 전쟁 원인으로 보아, 석유와 가스가 신의 축복, 검은 진주이기도 하지만, 악마의 저주가 되는 것임을 확인했다. 따라서 석유와 가스 및 파이프라인이 가지 는 정치경제적 함의는 중동 국제관계에서 매우 크다고 할 수 있다. There have been several disputes and wars in the Middle East since World War Ⅱ. Disputes and wars in the Middle East show the same ‘complex causes of war’ as disputes in other area and in the other era. There are the same several identitiesas as Asabiyya identity, Qawmiyyah Arabiyyah identity, Ummah identity, Wataniya identity, and Oil rentier identity in the Middle East, and it is said that dispute in the Middle East is ‘the crisis of identity.’ Generally speaking, natural and offensive human instinct, domestic political structure in each country, anarchical structure in international relations are the causes of war and dispute, and dispute and war comes about in mixing these causes of war and dispute. In this paper, I supposed that the most of disputes and wars in Middle East show ‘complex causes of war’ and especially oil, gas, pipeline is one of the most important causes of war and dispute. And then, I did analyzed ‘the 2003 America-Iraq war’ and ‘the War on IS’ as case studies. In conclusion, America’s intention that wanted to control Iraqi oil and oil price was an important cause of ‘2003 America-Iraq war’, and planed energy pipeline connecting Iran-Iraq-Syria-EU and the intention of Arab countries that want to obstruct building of this pipeline is one of the several causes of ‘war on IS’. In other words, domestic political structure and anarchical international structure of the modern nation-state system is the cause of these two wars.