현재 기후 및 농업환경 변화를 반영한 농업용수 공급능 취약성 평가

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),조건호 ( Gun-hocho ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2021 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2021 No.-

장기적인 기후경향이 논경지 관개용수 수요량 및 가용수에 미치는 영향

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),조건호 ( Gun-ho Cho ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2021 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2021 No.-

파키스탄 중앙 편자브지역의 밀 수확량과 물발자국에 미치는 기후변화 영향 예측

미르자주나이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2017 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2017 No.-

The most likely detrimental impacts of climate change are anticipated to reshape the agricultural water demand and supply patterns, therefore the assessment of climate change on crop water footprints will be essential. In this, study the impacts of changing climate, as emulated by a range of global circulation climate (GCMs) models ensemble, were explored for the yield and water footprints of wheat production system of Punjab, Pakistan. The FAO developed Aquacrop v 5.0 yield simulation model was calibrated and validated by exploiting the crop phenology data retrieved from the field experiments conducted during 2004-2010 at a representative site located in the district Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan. The model’s simulation performance was quite satisfactory despite the fact that limited field data were available for the model calibration. The bias-corrected, statistically-downscaled climate projections from the 9 GCMs were integrated with the calibrated Aquacrop model to project the wheat yields and associated water footprints for the two future time slices: 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080), under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. All the GCMs depicted a noticeable warming and drying future climate especially during the second half of this century. Under the worst, most likely future scenario of temperature rise and rainfall reduction, the wheat yield decreased and water footprint, especially blue, increased, owing to the elevated irrigation demands originating from the accelerated evapotranspiration rates. A probable increase in rainfall as envisaged by some GCMs may partly mitigate the adverse impacts of the temperature rise but the higher uncertainties associated with the predicated rainfall patterns is worth considering before reaching a final conclusion. The total water footprints were continuously increasing implying that future climate would profoundly influence the crop evapotranspiration demands and more water would be required for wheat production. The future wheat production was predicted to be more irrigation or blue water dependent, since the contribution of rainfall or green water would be much lower. The results highlighted the significance of the availability of the irrigation water in order to sustain and improve the wheat production in the study area.

극한기후 시공간 모의 성능 기반 GCM 앙상블 그룹 선정

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2023 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2023 No.0

Assessment of Global Circulation Models (GCM) in simulating past climate using temporal performance indices is commonly the first step for selecting suitable GCMs, however, the ability to explicitly reproduce spatial patterns of observed climatology is equally important. In this study, we evaluated the performance of 11 and 13 GCMs archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6, respectively, in simulating the 21 extreme climate indices during 1971-2100 in South Korea based on three temporal and six spatial performance indices. Multi-model ensemble (MME) data sets were generated by merging bias-corrected data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall from GCMs by using simple mean (SM) and random forest (RF) algorithms. Among the CMIP5 GCMs: MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, CanESM2, ACCESS1-3 and GISS-E2-R; and among the CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, MRI-ESM2-0, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, BCC-CSM2-M, and MPI-ESM-LR were the best GCMs for replicating spatial and temporal patterns of temperature- and rainfall-derived extreme indices. MME data developed using RF outperformed the MMEs developed using the SM, and hence it was used to project the spatial-temporal trends of the extreme climate indices. The extreme cold indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.05) during 2031-2100 under both representative concentration pathway and socioeconomic concentration pathway scenarios. Extreme warming indices showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.05) and the change magnitude was larger than that of the extreme cold indices. Most extreme precipitation indices had escalating trends across the study area. Change magnitudes of all extreme indices under RCP8.5 were much higher than those in the remaining scenarios. Compared to the rest of the country, coastal regions in the east, south, and west had more intense warming, while northern mountainous regions experienced more extreme cold. Extreme warming climatology steadily increased from coastal to inland and northern mountainous regions, whereas extreme cold climatology gradually decreased from north to south. Our results showed that socially, environmentally and agriculturally important regions of South Korea were at increased risk of facing the detrimental impacts of extreme climatology.

기후변화 예측에 기반한 전례없는 비정상 기후에 대한 미래 위험 전망

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2022 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2022 No.-

Climate warming is inducing unprecedented spatio-temporal detrimental trends in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extreme events; threatening human health, socioeconomic stability, and well-being of natural and built environments. The severity of climate extreme impacts is expected to enhance human exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (ageing infrastructure, fragile food production systems) to future climate warming. In this study, we used a 3 5-year (1975-2010) daily climate data set of temperature and rainfall from 50 weather stations spread across South Korea to statistically bias-correct the projections from 25 global climate models. Daily data were used to derive 25 climate extremes based on maximum/minimum temperature and rainfall during the baseline (1975- 2010) and two future time slices (2030-2065 and 2066-2100) under the representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Agriculturally relevant climate extremes such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, monsoon rainfall intensity, etc. showed significantly increasing trends during the baseline and future time slices. Anomalous temperature and rainfall conditions were projected to occur concurrently and frequently, with a high likelihood of warming and drying during the rice transplanting period (May-June) followed by intense monsoon rainfall (July-August). The results showed that considering the current urbanization and industrial development, population exposure to extremely hot, dry/wet extremes would increase significantly in the future. Study findings could contribute to the development and implementation of mitigation and adaptation plans concerning the climate change threat to various aspects of society.

파키스탄 펀잡지역의 밀-쌀재배시스템의 미래 물수요 예측

미르자주나이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2018 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2018 No.-

Conceptualizing the crop evapotranspiration rates (ETc) and subsequent irrigation water requirements (IWR) in the context of rapidly changing climate is of paramount importance for Pakistan’s agriculture sector sustainability and tackling food security issues. This study was focused on projecting water demands of the wheat-rice system of Punjab under a future climate as emulated by a range of Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Statically downscaled and bias-corrected outputs from 8 GCMs forced under two Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios (RCPs) during two future time slices: 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080) were incorporated in the study against a baseline climatology (1980-2010). Projections suggested that future climate of the study area would be much hotter than the baseline period with minor rainfall increments. The probable temperature rise increased seasonal and annual cumulative reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) in the future. Temperature rises also drive phenological development of both crops at an accelerated pace; represented by an overall decline in the number of growing days. Despite the positive shifts in projected ETo trends, both wheat and rice ETc were declining in the future due to shortening of growth span. Highly unpredictable but mostly positive seasonal and annual total rainfall shifts indicated that both crops might receive more effective rainfalls during their respective seasons. Shortening of crop growth span and seasonal effective rainfall increments gave rise to the declining trends of IWR for both crops, but the projected IWRs showed great variation across the GCMs due to unclear projected rainfall trends. These results might seem to undermine climate influences over the water requirements of the wheat-rice system of Punjab but alarmingly shortening of the crop growth spans signifies a higher tendency of crop failure under the projected future thermal regime in this area.

파키스탄 푼잡지역 지속가능한 미래 밀생산 및 물생산성을 위한 기후제한요소

미르자주나이드아흐마드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),조건호 ( Cho Gun-ho ),이슬기 ( Lee Seulgi ),김상현 ( Kim Sang-hyun ),최경숙 ( Choi Kyung-sook ) 한국농공학회 2019 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2019 No.-

Pakistan’s food security conditions are worsening because of population explosion, gradually but consistently creeping water scarcity across agricultural lands due to hostile climate change trends and rampant incidents of droughts and floods. Wheat is the primary dietary staple for masses in Pakistan and the country’s wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. In this work, negative climate change impacts on wheat yield and water productivity (WP) were examined for the semi-arid conditions of largest agricultural province of Punjab, Pakistan; by the end of 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0 simulated the future wheat yield and associated WP trends. Three types of WPs including yield per unit of water lost as evapotranspiration (WPET), yield per unit of irrigation water applied (WP_Irr) and yield per unit of total water input (WP_{Tot_Water}) were estimated. Future climate warming of 1 - 3℃ and 2 - 5℃ caused the wheat yield declines in the order of 11 - 15% and 14 - 20% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by the end of 2080. Climate warming also accelerated the crop growth process and cut short the average growth spans by 7 - 12 days and 10 - 20 days during the 2030s (2021 - 2050) and 2060s (2051 - 208), respectively. The three WPs also declined in future, without considering the CO₂ enrichment effects, despite a clear decrease in crop evapotranspiration rates caused by a shortened growth span. WPET, WP_Irr and WP_{Tot_Water} reduced by 4 - 20% and 13 - 20%; 7 - 22% and 18 - 24% and 22 - 25% and 22 - 29% under RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5, respectively. The results suggested that higher CO₂ concentrations could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s, but it might not withhold the negative yield trends during the 2060s. Although, CO₂ enrichment effect showed promises to counteract the adverse climate change impacts the interactions between climate warming and CO₂ concentrations were uncertain and required further examination.

The use of Taguchi method and Dynamic Analysis to Optimize the Airbag Inflator

미르자 아메드(F. A. Mirza),김진한(J. H. Kim),송정일(J. I. Song) 한국기계가공학회 2010 한국기계가공학회 춘추계학술대회 논문집 Vol.2010 No.6

기후변화 예측에 기반한 전례없는 비정상 기후에 대한 미래 위험 전망

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2022 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2022 No.-

Climate warming is inducing unprecedented spatio-temporal detrimental trends in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extreme events; threatening human health, socioeconomic stability, and well-being of natural and built environments. The severity of climate extreme impacts is expected to enhance human exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (ageing infrastructure, fragile food production systems) to future climate warming. In this study, we used a 3 5-year (1975-2010) daily climate data set of temperature and rainfall from 50 weather stations spread across South Korea to statistically bias-correct the projections from 25 global climate models. Daily data were used to derive 25 climate extremes based on maximum/minimum temperature and rainfall during the baseline (1975- 2010) and two future time slices (2030-2065 and 2066-2100) under the representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Agriculturally relevant climate extremes such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, monsoon rainfall intensity, etc. showed significantly increasing trends during the baseline and future time slices. Anomalous temperature and rainfall conditions were projected to occur concurrently and frequently, with a high likelihood of warming and drying during the rice transplanting period (May-June) followed by intense monsoon rainfall (July-August). The results showed that considering the current urbanization and industrial development, population exposure to extremely hot, dry/wet extremes would increase significantly in the future. Study findings could contribute to the development and implementation of mitigation and adaptation plans concerning the climate change threat to various aspects of society.

파키스탄 UCC 관개지역 밀·쌀 재배 필요수량에 대한 기후변화 영향

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmada ),최경숙 ( Kyung Sook Choib ) 한국농공학회 2018 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.60 No.5

This study investigated climate change influences over crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the wheat-rice cropping system of Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) command in Punjab Province, Pakistan. PRECIS simulated delta-change climate projections under the A1B scenario were used to project future climate during two-time slices: 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080) against baseline climatology (1980-2010). CROPWAT model was used to simulate future CWRs and IWRs of the crops. Projections suggested that future climate of the study area would be much hotter than the baseline period with minor rainfall increments. The probable temperature rise increased CWRs and IWRs for both the crops. Wheat CWR was more sensitive to climate-induced temperature variations than rice. However, projected winter/wheat seasonal rainfall increments were satisfactorily higher to compensate for the elevated wheat CWRs; but predicted increments in summer/rice seasonal rainfalls were not enough to complement change rate of the rice CWRs. Thus, predicted wheat IWRs displayed a marginal and rice IWRs displayed a substantial rise. This suggested that future wheat production might withstand the climatic influences by end of the 2030s, but would not sustain the 2060s climatic conditions; whereas, the rice might not be able to bear the future climate-change impacts even by end of the 2030s. In conclusion, the temperature during the winter season and rainfall during the summer season were important climate variables controlling water requirements and crop production in the study area.