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- 저자 : 미르자주나이드아흐마드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ) (검색결과 1 건)
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파키스탄 푼잡지역 지속가능한 미래 밀생산 및 물생산성을 위한 기후제한요소
미르자주나이드아흐마드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),조건호 ( Cho Gun-ho ),이슬기 ( Lee Seulgi ),김상현 ( Kim Sang-hyun ),최경숙 ( Choi Kyung-sook ) 한국농공학회 2019 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2019 No.-
Pakistan’s food security conditions are worsening because of population explosion, gradually but consistently creeping water scarcity across agricultural lands due to hostile climate change trends and rampant incidents of droughts and floods. Wheat is the primary dietary staple for masses in Pakistan and the country’s wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. In this work, negative climate change impacts on wheat yield and water productivity (WP) were examined for the semi-arid conditions of largest agricultural province of Punjab, Pakistan; by the end of 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0 simulated the future wheat yield and associated WP trends. Three types of WPs including yield per unit of water lost as evapotranspiration (WPET), yield per unit of irrigation water applied (WP<sub>Irr</sub>) and yield per unit of total water input (WP<sub>Tot_Water</sub>) were estimated. Future climate warming of 1 - 3℃ and 2 - 5℃ caused the wheat yield declines in the order of 11 - 15% and 14 - 20% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by the end of 2080. Climate warming also accelerated the crop growth process and cut short the average growth spans by 7 - 12 days and 10 - 20 days during the 2030s (2021 - 2050) and 2060s (2051 - 208), respectively. The three WPs also declined in future, without considering the CO<sub>2</sub> enrichment effects, despite a clear decrease in crop evapotranspiration rates caused by a shortened growth span. WPET, WP<sub>Irr</sub> and WP<sub>Tot_Water</sub> reduced by 4 - 20% and 13 - 20%; 7 - 22% and 18 - 24% and 22 - 25% and 22 - 29% under RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5, respectively. The results suggested that higher CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s, but it might not withhold the negative yield trends during the 2060s. Although, CO<sub>2</sub> enrichment effect showed promises to counteract the adverse climate change impacts the interactions between climate warming and CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations were uncertain and required further examination.
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