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지역경제 변수를 이용한 대전시 아파트가격 영향에 관한 연구
이석원(Lee, Seok-Won),정승화(Jung, Seung-Hwa),박태영(Park, Tea-Young) 한국부동산정책학회 2017 不動産政策硏究 Vol.18 No.2
This research understood the influence variables through the macroeconomic data within the region differently from the analyses of the past which had been proceeded fragmentarily despite the fact that, in the analysis of the influences of the apartment prices through the macroeconomic variables, the different influences had been possessed according to the region. In order to take a look at the influence relationships of the index of the prices of the apartments in the Daejeon City, regarding the variables used for this research, the influence relationships were analyzed based on the regional variables of the total production within the region, the consumer price index within the region, the amount of transaction, the unsold apartments, the economically active population, and the employment rate. First, in order to test the stabilities of the macroeconomic variables, the unit roots test was proceeded with. And, regarding the index of the prices of the apartments in the Daejeon City, the economical activity index, the employment rate, and the not-yet-sold apartments variable were stabilized through the 1st level differences. And the variable of the total production within the region was stabilized through the 2nd level differences. As a result of the Granger causal relationship analysis, it appeared that the amount of transaction had an influence on the index of the prices of the apartments in the Daejeon City. And, as a result of testing the linear relationships of the individual variables, it appeared that the cointegration relationship was established with regard to the over 4 variables. As a result, the setup of a model was proceeded with the VEC Model. And the 1st level model was selected as the optimal model. As a result of the model, in the long-term balance relationship, it appeared that the amount of the transactions and the rate of employment had the positive (+) influences. And, in the short-term balance relationship, it appeared that the consumer price index is influenced by the amount of transaction and that the amount of transaction is influenced by the employment rate.
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