강원도 지방 소나무의 지역 간곡선 (幹曲線) 및 재적식 (材積式) 모델

김준순,이우균,변우혁 ( Joon Soon Kim,Woo Kyun Lee,Woo Hyuk Byun ) 한국산림과학회 1994 한국산림과학회지 Vol.83 No.4

Voume functions, which are usually expressed by the function of dbh and height, are estimated commonly through the regression analysis with the highest statistical accuracy considered. In Korea, general volume functions for each tree species were prepared by means of the regression analysis with the exponential function (V=aD^bH^c) having the dbh(D) and height(H) as independent variables. In this study, regional stem curve functions for the Pinus densiflora in Kangwon-province were derived and a regional volume function model, in which the stem eulume can be directly estimated through the rotational integral of the regional stem curve functions, was prepared. The regional volume estimated by the prepared model was more accurate than the volume by the general volume table for the Pinus densiflora in Kangwon-province. Additionary, the form of stem curves derived by the regional stem curve functions showed difference tram each other. The stem in Youngwol and Wonju taper down more fast in upper part than that in other regions. These various stem forms also led to the regional difference in volume estimates.

시차종속변수(時差從屬變數)에 의한 우리 나라 원목수요분석(原木需要分析)

김준순,Kim, Jun-Sun 한국자원경제학회 1998 資源經濟學會誌 Vol.8 No.1

본 논문은 시차종속변수를 이용한 우리 나라 원목수요분석을 통해 장기원목수요의 변화를 예측하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 원목수요는 재화의 특성상 파생수요를 전제하여 분석하였다. 분석에서는 1970년부터 1996년까지 27년간의 원목수요 자료를 이용하였다. 원목수요는 1980년대 들어서면서 1970년대와 같은 빠른 증가는 아니지만 지속적으로 완만히 증가하다가 1991년을 정점으로 하향 안정세를 보이고 있다. 분석에서는 적응적 기대모형과 부분적 조정모형을 사용하였다. 1977년에서 1979년까지 원목수요량의 급격한 증가를 설명하기 위하여 모형내에 더미변수를 사용하였다. 설명변수는 원목가격, 더미변수, 파생재화(목재 및 나무제품)의 가격과 시차종속변수를 이용하였다. 분석 결과, 적응적 기대모형은 시차종속변수를 사용해야 할 만큼 유의한 결과를 얻을 수 없었다. 하지만 부분적 조정모형에서는 각 변수의 추정치가 전반적으로 유의하게 나타났다. 특히, 시차종속변수 추정치에 대한 t값이 2.07로 유의하게 나옴으로써 모형의 설명력을 높여 주었다. 부분적 조정모형의 수정계수는 0.74 정도로 나타났다. 부분적 조정모형의 가정하에 2010년까지 매년 원목가격지수 6.7%와 국내 목제품가격지수 5.8% 상승률에 근거한 방법과 원목가격지수 6.8%와 목제품가격지수 5.6%로 전제하여 원목수요를 전망하였다. 그 결과, 원목수요는 지속적으로 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 일정한 가격상승률을 전제한 예측수요량이 일정한 가격지수의 상승을 전제한 경우보다 높게 나타났다.

산지 및 임목의 물적 자산계정 체계에 관한 연구

김준순 ( Joon Soon Kim ) 한국산림과학회 2005 한국산림과학회지 Vol.94 No.1

Although the forest accounts in Korea have been constructed partly as the research projects since the mid-1990s, the framework of the accounts has not yet been established. The objective of this study is to provide the physical asset accounts of forested land and forest stock based on the system of integrated environmental economic accounts(SEEA) by utilizing the restructured 2004 statistical yearbook of forestry in Korea. In 2004 yearbook, new variables such as logging area and volumes arc added. The logging area and volumes play important roles in constructing forest accounts because the basic structure of the physical asset accounts are composed of the opening stock, closing stock, and the changes between the two. The changes between the opening and closing stock are largely explained by the harvest. In forest accounts, in general, the main elements for the increase in stock are afforestation and reforestation while the main cause for the decrease is logging. In this study we separate the logging into natural or man-made causes. In addition, other useful information for the status of forest is recorded in an annex even if it is not necessary element in the account table. According to the forested land asset accounts generated with 2003 data, the logging area is larger than the relorestation area, and the total forested land is decreased. The logging volume is 0.4% of the total stock volume, and the planed logging volume is more than 3 times larger than the damaged logging volume. The damaged logging volumes by man-made causes is about 300,000 and It is much larger than that of natural causes. which is about 55.000 ㎥.

산림지속성 지수 개발에 관한 기초연구

김준순 ( Joon Soon Kim ),김중명 ( Joong Myung Kim ),성주한 ( Joo Han Sung ) 한국산림과학회 2005 한국산림과학회지 Vol.94 No.3

산립 생태계서비스 가치 적용을 위한 기준 설정에 관한 연구 -편익이전 방법을 중심으로 -

김준순 ( Joonsoon Kim ) 한국산림경제학회 2017 산림경제연구 Vol.24 No.1

생태계서비스에 대한 관심이 높아지면서 가치 평가 연구들이 활발하게 진행되는 가운데, 다양한 가치 평가 자료들을 데이터베이스 시스템으로 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라 데이터베이스 정보를 활용한 편익이전법의 활용이 점차 많아지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 가치 평가 과정을 평가대상 및 기능의 결정, 생태계서비스의 구체화, 평가주체의 설정, 가치 평가 방법의 결정 등 4단계로 구분하여 각 과정별로 수행해야 할 내용들을 제시하였다. 또한, 편익이전법을 적용할 때 사례 연구 선정을 위해 적합성, 지역성, 시의성, 신뢰성 원칙을 제시하였다. 각 선정 원칙에 의해 평가한 결과를 종합하는 방법으로 가법형과 승법형의 소개와 함께 장단점을 비교하였다. 마지막으로는 가치의 편익이전 과정에서 발생하는 공간의 축소/확대 가능성, 수혜자의 공간적 범위 설정, 지역 특성을 반영한 차등적 가치의 부여, 할인율 등을 제시하고 설명하였다. With an increasing interest in ecosystem services, various sets of valuation data have been generated and provided into a database system, As a result, the benefit transfer method utilizing database information is increasingly used in the contemporary valuation studies. In this study, the four steps to evaluate the value of ecosystem services are established: a) Evaluation target and function setting, b) Specification of ecosystem services, c) Establishment of evaluation subjects and d) Determination of value evaluation methods. Furthermore, this paper presents selection principles that include suitability, locality, timeliness, and reliability, which needs to be considered when applying the benefit transfer method. We examined the ways of distinguishing between the additive method and the multiplicative method and compared the advantages and disadvantages. Finally, we discussed the possibilities of reducing or expanding the given spaces, setting the spatial range of the beneficiaries, assigning differential values reflecting the local characteristics, and discount rate as the considerations of benefit transfer.

비시장재 가치평가에 있어 음의 지불의사 가능성에 근거한 토빗모형 적용

김준순 ( Joon Soon Kim ) 한국산림경제학회 1997 산림경제연구 Vol.5 No.2

CVM 질문형에 따른 지불의사액 비교분석

김준순 ( Joon Soon Kim ),변우혁 ( Woo Hyuk Byun ) 한국산림과학회 2003 한국산림과학회지 Vol.92 No.3

This study performed to test the differences of willingness to pay(WTP) according to the question formats, payment card format and dichotomous choice format in the contingent valuation method. The questionnaire for the valuation of the recreation benefit is performed to estimate average WTP based equivalent surplus. The model assumed a joint likelihood function on the basis of the probit and tobit model. It was used for visit frequency, satisfaction, sex, education, income as the exogenous variables, which assumed a linear form. The result showed that the estimated WTPs vary according to the question formats. The recreational benefit on Bukhansan national park was estimated about 14 billion won.

가상가치평가법에서 시간범위에 따른 휴양가치의 차이 해석

김준순(Joon Soon Kim) 한국산림과학회 1999 한국산림과학회지 Vol.88 No.1

Consumer surplus is to be a value concerning a time horizon. Especially it is very important how long time horizon would be chosen in contingent market. This study aimed to provide causes of difference recreation benefits through discount rate in many aspects. The data were collected by personal interviews with visitors in Songnisan National Park. The respondents answered yes or no, dichotomous choice, on recreation benefits according to a chosen time horizon, one year or five years. The probit model was used in the analysis. In order to avoid the truncation bias of upper bound, the median was chosen as the recreation benefits of visitor. As the result, the value was evaluated to be 16,569 Won for one year and 27,111 Won for five years. The discount rate is estimated 153% annually to coincide different recreation benefits. The reasons of the high discount rate were to be interpreted as following five types : (1) uncertainty of future consumption (2) increasing of probability of the substitution owing to increasing of time horizon (3) recognization of different time horizons (4) effect by the price ratio of goods and utility function (5) overestimation of the recreation benefits owing to a basic premium of payment vehicle.

양안에 발생한 급성특발성황반병증 1 예

김준순(Joon Soon Kim),최경식(kyung Seek Choi) 대한안과학회 2000 대한안과학회지 Vol.41 No.7

시도별 산림지속성의 지수화

김준순 ( Joon Soon Kim ),성주한 ( Joo Han Sung ),김중명 ( Joong Myung Kim ) 한국산림과학회 2006 한국산림과학회지 Vol.95 No.6