연구논문 : 경영전략과 자본비용

유현수(제1저자) ( Hyun Soo Ryu ),김갑순(교신저자) ( Kap Soon Kim ),최규담(공동저자) ( Gyu Dam Choi ) 한국회계학회 2015 회계저널 Vol.24 No.6

본 연구는 Miles and Snow (1978, 2003) 경영전략 이론에 따라 기업의 전략을 선도형, 분석형 및 방어형으로 구분하고 각 유형에 따라 기업의 가중평균자본비용이 어떻게 달라지는지에 대하여 실증적으로 분석한 것이다. 즉, 각 기업의 최고경영진의 경영철학이 표출되어 있는 경영전략은 매우 포괄적이기는 하지만 기존의 개별적인 기업특성변수들이 제공하지 못하는 중요한 정보가치를 내포하고 있다면, 선행연구에서 자본비용을 설명하는 개별적인 요소들을 모두 통제한 후에도 경영전략이 자본비용을 설명할 수 있을 것이라는 것이 본 연구에서 확인하고자 하는 가설의 배경이다. 본 연구는 2000년부터 2013년까지 유가증권시장과 코스닥시장에 상장된 기업을 대상으로 6,005개의 표본을 대상으로 방어형(defender)보다 선도형(prospector)형에 가까울수록(즉, 경영전략지수가 높아질수록)자본비용 수준이 더 높을 것이라는 가설을 검증하였다. 자본비용은 NICE신용평가정보(주)가 제공하는 가중평균자본비용을 사용하였고 경영전략의 측정은 Miles and Snow(1978, 2003)이론에 따라 경영전략의 유형별 특성을 구분하여 측정할 수 있는 6가지 요소를 기초로 종합점수를 산출한 뒤 이를 연속변수로 사용하거나 선도형(prospector), 분석형(analyzer) 및 방어형(defender)으로 구분하여 더미변수로 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 연속변수인 경영전략지수가 높아지는 경우 1% 유의수준에서 자본비용이 증가하였고, 선도형인 경우가 유의하게 분석형 또는 방어형인 경우보다 자본비용이 더 높았다. 경영자지분율이 높은 수준을 5%, 10% 및 20% 이상으로 측정하여 경영자지분율을 추가로 통제한 경우에도 경영전략지수가 높아지는 경우 유의하게 자본비용이 증가하는 결과는 달라지지 않았다. 대부분의 통제변수는 유의성에 다소 차이는 있었지만 선행연구에 근거하여 예측한부호와 대체로 방향성이 일치하였다. 본 연구 결과는 자본비용에 영향을 미치는 요소로 선행연구와 같이 개별적인 기업특성변수 대신 보다 포괄적인 ``경영전략지수``라는 종합측정치를 사용하였다는 점에서 큰 의미가 있다. The ``tone at the top`` the executives set or the executives`` willingness to take strategic risks in their competitive markets spill over into specific operation areas including the business and financial risk, willingness to take the uncertainty, stability or complexity of organizational structure, the value of assets secured and attitude towards growth and corporate governance, etc. Furthermore, such top management``s tone are also most effectively implemented into a firm``s business strategy. Accordingly, it might be inferred that a firm``s business strategy has other separate and comprehensive information value than a firm``s specific individual information factors. While many prior studies are investigating what can more explain the level of cost of capital, a firm``s business strategy may provide the approach which is more comprehensive and generalizable across industries than those specific individual variables. The business strategy provides a theoretical background for an even broader understanding of the factors that are ex ante determinants of cost of capital level. Ittner et al.(1997), Higgins et al.(2015) and Bentley et al.(2013) are main prior accounting researches that used a comprehensive and composite measure of business strategy as an explanatory variables for the quality of accounting information. Such prior research are all based on Miles and Snow(1978, 2003)``s strategy theory. Prospectors defined by Miles and Snow(1978, 2003) focus on innovation, pursue new products and geographic markets and have high growth potential and high level of capital needs, which are positively related to the business and financial risks and the uncertainty demanding higher level of cost of capital. However, defenders focus on comparatively sound, stable and predictable areas and their aversion to risk and uncertainty would lead to be lower level of cost of capital. Using business strategy typology defined by Miles and Snow (1978, 2003), this study examines the relation between a firm``s business strategy and its cost of capital. We investigate whether a firm``s business strategy is associated with its cost of capital and predict that firms close to prospector show higher level of cost of capital than those close to analyzer and defender (Hypothesis 1). According to the Miles and Snow(1978, 2003), prospectors focus on innovation, pursue new products and geographic markets and are more likely to be aggressive, which have relatively more tax planning opportunities. Further, given that their products tend not to have readily available substitutes, prospectors are less concerned about negative publicity arising from tax avoidance. By contrast, defenders focus on comparatively sound, stable and predictable areas and put the stress on the economy of scale. defenders`` aversion to risk and uncertainty also suggests that given the set of tax opportunities available, they would avoid tax less aggressively. Since their products have viable substitutes, defenders could incur reputation costs associated with tax avoidance. To address our research questions, we used publicly available weighted averaged cost of capital (WACC). We also compute a discrete STRATEGY composite index measure (STRATEGY) based on variables from prior literature (Higgins et al. 2015) that reflect different facets of the strategy: (1) the ratio of research and development to sales, (2) the ratio of employees to sales, (3) a growth opportunity measure (market-to-book ratio), (4) the ratio of marketing (SG&A) to sales, (5) employee fluctuations (standard deviation of total number of employees), and (6) capital intensity (net PPE scaled by total assets). Each is intended to capture different elements of a firm``s business strategy. We find from the test of Hypothesis 1 that STRATEGY is positively related to WACC at 1% significance level and prospector``s WACC are higher than those of analyzer and defender, which is consistent with our anticipation. The results above suggest that a firm closer prospector(defender) group has higher(lower) cost of capital. From the robust test adding as control variable whether management ownership is higher level (which is defined as the shareholding by directors and officers exceeds 5%, 10% or 20%), we further find that adding management ownership does not change previous the main results(i.e., a firm closer prospector group has higher cost of capital) while the firms with higher level of management ownership show higher level of cost of capital. Our study contribute to a better understanding of a firm``s cost of capital. While prior studies have focused individual factors explaining the level of cost of capital, our study investigate a firm``s business strategy which plays a broader and more comprehensive role than those specific individual variables. The distinguishing feature of our study is that it is grounded in a theoretical framework that is used to make clear predictions regarding the link between a firm``s business strategy and its cost of capital.

기업의 조세부정예측모형에 관한 연구

박현재 ( Hyun Jae Park ),김갑순(교신저자) ( Kap Soon Kim ) 한국회계학회 2016 회계저널 Vol.25 No.3

본 연구는 국내 기업의 회계자료 및 기업특성을 이용하여 조세부정 정도를 추정하는 모형을 제시하고, 예측모형의 구체적인 활용방안을 설명하였다. 구체적으로, 2000년부터 2013년까지 세무조사로 적발되어 전자공시시스템(DART)에 공시한 12월 결산 상장법인과 대응표본을 대상으로 100회 무작위추출에 의한 단계적 로짓분석(stepwise logisticregression)을 실시하여 조세부정 예측모형을 추정하였다. 최종 예측모형에는 유효세율, 부채비율, 수출비율, 매출액, 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이, 재벌여부, 감사인 규모의 7개 변수가 포함되었다. 분석결과, 국내 상장기업들은 유효세율, 부채비율, 매출액이 높을수록 조세부정 가능성이 높았으며, 반면 수출비율, 회계이익과 과 세소득의 차이가 낮을수록 조세부정 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 재벌에 소속되어 있으며 외부감사인이 Non-Big4인 경우에 조세부정 가능성이 높았다. 본 연구의 예측모형은 모든 기업을 비부정기업으로 가정하는 단순전략과 비교하여 총기대오류비용을 크게 감소시킬 수 있는 것으로 나타나 비용효율적임을 제시하였다. 재무제표와 기업특성 자료만을 필요로 하는 본 연구의 예측모형은 과세당국, 학계, 외부감사인, 투자자들이 특정 기업의 조세부정 가능성을 일차적으로 평가하는데 유용할 것으로 기대된다. Tax fraud affects the national budget to reduce the tax revenues of the country. Lisowsky(2010) is, U.S. Treasury(1999) with reference to the report, it reported that tax revenues that the federal government will be lost in the tax evasion has reached 10 billion dollars a year. In Korea, there is a trend that is collected additionally the number of tax audits and the amounts collected additionally associated with increased offshore tax evasion annually. Domestic and foreign tax authorities are making various efforts to prevent such these tax fraud. U.S. Internal Revenue Service(IRS) in 2000 to tax fraud transactions(tax shelter) dedicated to agencies(the Office of Tax Shelter Analysis, OTSA) established by the tax fraud monitoring and there. Even concluded in the domestic Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act(FATCA) from September 2015 agreed to strengthen offshore tax evasion blocked by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service(IRS) through the financial information exchange. Many studies theoretically explain and empirically analyze relevance of between of corporate tax burden level, financial characteristics, corporate governance, book to tax income differences and tax avoidance. In addition, previous studies related to tax evasion has focused to analyze the differences between the various properties compared to the corporate tax fraud caught by the companies. However, can be utilized in practice, decisions regarding models and tax evasion about to estimate the extent of tax evasion of specific companies, remains a substantial portion unsolved problem. In this study, while presenting a predictive model that can determine whether to tax fraud, the specific manner of utilization of the model is trying to explore. In particular, an attempt to estimate a more sophisticated predictive models, comprehensive consideration tax avoidance and financial characteristics that it has been confirmed that affect the tax evasion, ownership and governance structure characteristics, the external auditor of the properties are in the previous research did. Specifically, the effective tax rate, company size, profitability, ratio of assets investment, debt ratio, export ratio, sales, financial constraints, discretionary accruals, research and development expenses, of the difference between profit and taxable income on eleven numbers of financial characteristic variables, ownership interest rate, foreign interest rates, jaebul, whether three of ownership and characteristic variables of the governance structure, the auditor scale of one of the external auditor of the characteristic variables to the consideration stepwise logistic regression was utilized to derive the final predictive model. In order to eliminate the estimated arbitrariness of the estimation model, 50 percent of the entire sample to predict the estimation sample in the random sampling method, and the remaining 50 percent and holdout samples. Further, in order to solve one of the reliability issues due to random sampling, 100 times and randomly, and extracted the available variables in predictive model. By using the validation sample in order to verify the suitability of the estimated prediction model, to derive the tax fraud probability of tax fraud corporate and non-fraud corporate, tax fraud probability of tax fraud company has verified whether significantly higher. Further, we is trying to verification of the economic efficiency of tax fraud estimation model by comparing the total expected cost when using the predictive model or not by the methodology of Beneish(1997), Ko and Yoon(2006). This study develops a model to detect tax fraud using a sample of firms identified as tax fraud by the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea and characteristics of corporate for the period from 2000 to 2013. We find seven useful variables: tax expense/pretax book income(ETR); debt/total asset(LEV); export proceeds/total sales(EXPORT); log(total sales)(SALES); book-tax difference/total asset(BTD); jaebul(GROUP); auditor size(BIG4). Results suggest that Korean firms are more likely to manipulate taxable income when ETR, LEV, SALES are more larger and EXPORT, BTD are more smaller and these firms are GROUP and audited by Non-Big4. Compared with a naive strategy of classifying all firms as non-manipulators, our estimation model is expected to significantly reduce costs of misclassification. Tax regulator, academic, external auditors, investor, and other users of financial statements might use our model to screen potential tax fraud, to which they can allocate additional resources for more in-depth analysis.

경영전략과 발생액의 질

최규담 ( Gyu Dam Choi ),김갑순(교신저자) ( Kap Soon Kim ),유현수(공동저자) ( Hyun Soo Ryu ) 한국회계학회 2016 회계저널 Vol.25 No.3

본 연구는 발생액의 질이 기업에 대한 포괄적인 상황정보(underlying factor)인 경영전략에 의해 설명될 수 있는지에 대한 실증적 연구이다. 기업을 경영전략의 특성에 따라 구분하는 경우 개별적인 변수들이 제공하지 못하는 포괄적이고 중요한 정보를 제공할 가능성이 높다. 따라서, 경영자의 회계선택 결과가 반영된 발생액의 질을 분석함에 있어서도 경영전략에 따른 특성을 반영할 필요가 있는지를 확인하고자 하는 것이다. 즉, 발생액의 질에영향을 미치는 통제변수를 모두 통제하고서도 경영전략이 발생액의 질을 설명하는지 여부에 대하여 분석하였다. 한편, 일반기업과 기업규모, 정부지원제도 등 경영환경에 있어 그특성에 있어 차이가 있는 중소기업이라는 사실이 경영전략과 발생액의 질 간의 관계에 영향을 미치는지에 대하여도 추가적으로 검토를 하였다. 발생액의 질을 종속변수로 하고 경영전략지수를 설명변수로 한 (가설 1)에 대한 분석결과는 발생액의 질의 측정치와 경영전략지수는 유의한 양(+)의 관계가 있었고 선도형이 다른 유형보다 발생액의 질의 측정치가 더 높았다(즉, 발생액의 질이 더 낮았다). 즉, 선도형은 발생액 이익조정의 유인과 기회가 많아서 발생액 이익조정을 지속하여 재량적 발생액의 크기가 더 커서 발생액의 질이 더 낮고 방어형은 원가최소화와 위험회피에 주안점을 두므로 적발위험이 큰 발생액 이익조정을 지속하기가 어려워 상대적으로 재량적 발생액의 크기가 더 적어 발생액의 질이 더 높았다. 한편, (가설 2)의 분석결과 중소기업일 경우 경영전략이 발생액의 질에 미치는 영향이 확대(즉, 경영전략이 발생액의 질에 미치는 영향력이 상대적으로 더 증가)되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 개별적인 특성 정보가 아닌 포괄적인 상황정보인 경영전략이 발생액의 질과 관련성이 있을 수 있다는 점을 실증하였고, 중소기업인 경우에는 소유경영 등으로 그러한 관련성이 더 증가할 것이라는 점을 실증하였다는 점에서 큰 의미가 있다. We investigate whether a firm’s business strategy is associated with its accruals quality. We predict that accrual quality of a firm close to prospector is lower than close to analyzer and defender (Hypothesis 1). Further, we investigate whether the fact that a firm is a small and medium-sized enterprise under the Korean law affects the association between business strategy and accruals quality (Hypothesis 2). Our study is motivated by recent researches showing that business strategy measured by the Miles and Snow (1978, 2003)``s typology is associated with financial reporting decision-making activities (Bentley et al. 2013) and that accrual based earning management by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are bigger than by non-SMEs (Choi, et al 2010). While many prior studies have investigated what can more explain incentives and/or opportunities for accrual based earning management, a firm’s business strategy may play a certain role as an underlying factor for them since it is more comprehensive and generalizable across industries than those specific individual variables previously considered for accrual based earning management. The business strategy may provide an even broader understanding of the factors that are ex ante determinants of accrual based earning management. According to the Miles and Snow (1978, 2003), prospector focuses on innovation, pursue new products and geographic markets and is more likely to be aggressive. Therefore, prospector has high growth potential, long-term stock incentive schemes and high level of capital needs, which are positively related to incentives of accrual based earning management, and unstable organization process and complex structure, which are opportunities for accrual based earnings management. By contrast, defender focuses on comparatively sound, stable and predictable areas and their aversion to risk and uncertainty(e.g., reputation costs associated with earnings management) would lead them to be passive in aggressive accrual based earnings management. To address our research questions, we used DD (Dechow and Dichev 2002) for measuring accruals quality. We also classified each firm-year sample into three strategy types (i.e., prospector, analyzer and defender) whose STRATEGY score are 24-30, 13-23 and 6-12, respectively. STRATEGY score is measured based on six (6) factors from prior literature (e.g., Choi et al. 2015; Bentley, et al. 2013 and Higgins et al. 2015) that reflect different facets of the strategy: (1) the ratio of research and development to sales, (2) the ratio of employees to sales, (3) a growth opportunity measure (market-to-book ratio), (4) the ratio of marketing (SG&A) to sales, (5) employee fluctuations (standard deviation of total employees), and (6) capital intensity (net PPE scaled by total assets). Each of the six measures is intended to capture different elements of a firm’s business strategy. We find from the test of Hypothesis 1 that DD value (accrual quality is better (poorer) when DD value is lower (higher) (i.e., the size of accrual is lower (higher)) are positively (+) associated with the strategy score at 1% significance level, which is consistent with our anticipation. We also find that DD value under prospector group is higher than that under defender group. These results indicate that the accruals quality of the firms closer to prospector is significantly poorer than those closer to defender. However, we could not entirely rule out the possibility that the higher DD under prospector group is interpreted as signaling by the management``s expectation of the positive future economic substance. The results of Hypothesis 2 test show that the association between accruals quality and business strategy become stronger (i.e., positive (+)) when the firms are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In other words, the result indicates that accruals quality of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) become much poorer than non-small and medium-sized enterprises (non-SMEs) even if both have the same strategy score. Our study is important since it helps provide a better understanding of the factors that affect a firm’s accrual quality. Further, our study enhances the understanding of features of small and medium-sized enterprises by showing that the relation between the accrual quality and business strategy is strengthened by SME. However, our study is limited in that the possibility that such positive (+) relationship between business strategy and the size of discretionary accruals may be signaling of the positive future economic substance is not been empirically and separately studied.