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FTA, Customs Union or Unilateral Trade Policy? Final Status Options for “the West Bank and Gaza”
( Maurice Schiff ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2003 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.18 No.1
This paper considers regional and unilateral trade policy options for the West Bank and Gaza (WBG). It examines the welfare implications of a free trade agreement (FTA) with Israel, a customs union (CU) with Israel, and a nondiscriminatory trade policy (NDTP). The analysis captures the fact that the WBG is landlocked, that it has a large trade deficit with Israel, and that smuggling takes place between them. The paper concludes that i) a NDTP is unambiguously superior to a FTA with Israel; but ii) the WBG should only pursue a NDTP if the policy is open, transparent, and enforced by a credible lock-in mechanism; otherwise, a CU with Israel may be preferable, especially if trade and other taxes are shared more equitably.
FTA, Customs Union or Unilateral Trade Policy? Final Status Options for "the West Bank and Gaza"
Schiff, Maurice 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2003 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.18 No.1
This paper considers regional and unilateral trade policy options for the West Bank and Gaza (WBG). It examines the welfare implications of a free trade agreement (FTA) with Israel, a customs union (CU) with Israel, and a non-discriminatory trade policy (NDTP). The analysis captures the fact that the WBG is landlocked, that it has a large trade deficit with Israel, and that smuggling takes place between them. The paper concludes that i) a NDTP is unambiguously superior to a FTA with Israel; but ii) the WBG should only pourse a NDTP if the policy is open, transparent, and enforced by a credible lock-in mechanism; other-wise, a CU with Israel may be preferable, especially if trade and other taxces are shared more equiutably.
North–South Trade-related Technology Diffusion and Productivity Growth: Are Small States Different?
Maurice Schiff 한국국제경제학회 2013 International Economic Journal Vol.27 No.3
The economies of small developing states tend to be more fragile than those in large ones. This paper examines this issue in a dynamic context by focusing on the impact of education and North–South trade-related technology diffusion (NRD) on TFP growth in small and large states in the South. The main findings are: (i) TFP growth increases with NRD, education and the interaction between the two; (ii) the impact of NRD, education and their interaction on TFP growth in small states is over three times that for large countries; and (iii) the greater TFP growth loss in small states has two brain–drain related causes: a substantially greater sensitivity of TFP growth to the brain drain, and brain drain levels that are much higher in small than in large states.
Will the Real "Natural Trading Partner" Please Stand Up?
Schiff, Maurice 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.2
Adherents to the "natural trading partner" hypothesis argue that forming a PTA is more likely to raise welfare if member countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare is likely to be higher if member countries trade less with each other. This paper shows that neither analysis is correct and that the "natural trading partner " hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability rather than in terms of volume of trade.
North-South Technology Spillovers: The Relative Impact of Openness and Foreign R&D
Maurice Schiff,Yanling Wang 한국국제경제학회 2010 International Economic Journal Vol.24 No.2
This paper examines the relative contribution of openness and the R&D content of trade to North-South trade-related knowledge diffusion and TFP growth. The measure of foreign R&D used in the literature on trade-related knowledge diffusion imposes identical contributions to TFP of openness and the R&D content of trade. We show that this restriction is not warranted and that openness has a greater impact on TFP than R&D. This finding is particularly strong in low R&D-intensity industries and – as might be expected – not as strong in R&D-intensive ones. The results indicate that the impact of openness on TFP in developing countries is larger than previously obtained in this literature, and that developing countries can obtain larger productivity gains from trade liberalization than previously thought.
Small States, Micro States, and their International Negotiation and Migration
( Maurice Schiff ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2014 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.29 No.3
Due to low bargaining power and scarce resources, small developing states face severe disadvantages in international negotiations and may benefit from bloc formation and intra-bloc migration. Policies are examined in a model where a bloc`s size and welfare impact are determined by international and regional negotiation costs, bargaining power, accession rule, and intra-bloc migration. The main findings are: (i) bloc formation likelihood, size, and benefit increase with international negotiation costs; (ii) intra-bloc migration acts as a public good, raising regional benefits; (iii) bloc size is optimal in the presence of accession fees; (iv) intra-bloc migration and North- South trade are complements under negotiations for increased market access. Thus, even if trading identical goods, small neighboring states should consider forming an international negotiating bloc and supporting intra-bloc migration.
Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?
( Maurice Schiff ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2001 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.16 No.2
Adherents to the “natural trading partner” hypothesis argue that forming a PTA is more likely to raise welfare if member countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare is likely to be higher if member countries trade less with each other. This paper shows that neither analysis is correct and that the “natural trading partner” hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability rather than in terms of volume of trade.
( Maurice Schiff ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 1997 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.3
This paper examines two issues: 1) the welfare impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), and 2) the effect of structural and policy changes on the welfare impact of PTAs. It is shown that, on the import side, the home country loses from a PTA between small countries (and the PTA as a whole loses as well); and the impact of a PTA on home country welfare is worse the higher the level (and share) of imports from the partner country. The latter result holds both in the small-country and the large-country case. The paper also examines the effects on the welfare impact of PTAs of changes in efficiency, trade policy, smuggling and rules of origin. It is shown that the impact of forming a PTA between small countries in the case of smuggling is ambiguous in general. (JEL Classification: F0, F1)
Schiff, Maurice 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1997 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.12 No.3
This paper examines two issues: 1) the welfare impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), and 2) the effect of structural and policy changes on the welfare impact of PTAs. It is shown that, on the import side, the home country loses from a PTA between small countries (and the PTA as a whole loses as well); and the impact of a PTA on home country welfare is worse the higher the level (and share) of imports from the partner country. The latter result holds both in the small-country and the large-country. The paper also examines the effects on the welfare impact of PTAs of changes in efficiency, trade policy, smuggling and rules of origin. It is shown that the impact of forming a PTA between small countries in the case of smuggling is ambiguous in general. (JEL Classification: F0, F1)