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- 검색키워드
- 저자 : ( Luis A. Gil Alana ) (검색결과 6 건)
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Real Exchange Rates in Latin America : The PPP Hypothesis and Fractional Integration
GUGLIELMO MARIA CAPORALE;LUIS A. GIL-ALANA 경제연구소 2010 Journal of Economic Development Vol.35 No.2
This paper tests for PPP in a group of seventeen Latin American (LA) countries by applying fractional integration techniques to real exchange rate series. Compared to earlier studies on these economies, this approach has the advantage of allowing for non-integer values for the degree of integration, and thus for the possibility of PPP not holding continuously but as a long-run equilibrium condition. Further, breaks in the series are endogenously determined using a procedure based on the least-squares principle. This is particularly crucial in the Latin American countries, which have been affected by several exchange rate crises and policy regime changes. The results, based on different assumptions about the underlying disturbances, are in the majority of cases inconsistent with PPP, even more so when breaks are incorporated: Argentina is the only country for which clear evidence of mean reversion is found in the model including a break, albeit only in the second subsample.
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Testing of Stochastic Trends, Seasonal and Cyclical Components in Macroeconomil Time Series
Gil-Alana Luis A. The Korean Statistical Society 2005 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.12 No.1
We propose in this article a procedure for testing unit and fractional orders of integration, with the roots simultaneously occurring in the trend, the seasonal and the cyclical component of the time series. The tests have standard null and local limit distributions. However, finite sample critical values are computed, and several Monte Carlo experiments conducted across the paper show that the rejection frequencies against unit (and fractional) orders of integration are relatively high in all cases. The tests are applied to the UK consumption and income series, the results showing the importance of the roots corresponding to the trend and the seasonal components and, though the unit roots are found to be fairly suitable models, we show that fractional processes (including one for the cyclical component) may also be plausible alternatives in some cases.
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Gil-Alana Luis A. The Korean Statistical Society 2006 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.13 No.3
Recent results in applied statistics have shown that the presence of periodicities in time series may influence the estimation and testing of the fractional differencing parameter. In this article, we provide further evidence on the issue by using several procedures of fractional integration. The results show that in the presence of periodicities, the order of integration can be erroneously detected. An empirical application in the context of seasonal data is also carried out at the end of the article.
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REAL EXCHANGE RATES IN LATIN AMERICA: THE PPP HYPOTHESIS AND FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION
GUGLIELMO MARIA CAPORALE,Luis A. Gil-Alana 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2010 Journal of Economic Development Vol.35 No.2
This paper tests for PPP in a group of seventeen Latin American (LA) countries by applying fractional integration techniques to real exchange rate series. Compared to earlier studies on these economies, this approach has the advantage of allowing for non-integer values for the degree of integration, and thus for the possibility of PPP not holding continuously but as a long-run equilibrium condition. Further, breaks in the series are endogenously determined using a procedure based on the least-squares principle. This is particularly crucial in the Latin American countries, which have been affected by several exchange rate crises and policy regime changes. The results, based on different assumptions about the underlying disturbances, are in the majority of cases inconsistent with PPP, even more so when breaks are incorporated: Argentina is the only country for which clear evidence of mean reversion is found in the model including a break, albeit only in the second subsample.
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Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates
( Guglielmo Maria Caporale ),( Luis A. Gil Alana ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.2
In this paper we specify a multi-factor long-memory process that enables us to estimate the fractional differencing parameters at each frequency separately, and adopt this framework to model quarterly prices in three European countries (France, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest that inflation in France and Italy is nonstationary. However, while for the former country this applies both to the zero and the seasonal frequencies, in the case of Italy the nonstationarity comes exclusively from the long-run or zero frequency. In the UK, inflation seems to be stationary with a component of long memory at both the zero and the semiannual frequencies, especially at the former. In all cases, we find evidence of mean reversion, implying that the effects of exogenous shocks on inflation are transitory and activist policies are not required in response to them. This process is slower in the case of France and Italy compared with the UK.
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Global and Regional Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Evidence from Stock Markets
Guglielmo Maria Caporale,Luis A,Gil-Alana,Kefei You 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2021 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.36 No.2
This paper investigates if financial markets in emerging Asia have become more globally or regionally integrated since the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. It employs a price-based measure of integration, namely, stock return differentials, between 10 emerging Asian economies and the United Stated (US) (as an indicator of global integration), as well as Japan and the Asian region (as two alternative indicators of regional integration), to test for mean reversion and draw inferences regarding financial integration. This paper makes a three-fold contribution to the literature. It uses not only aggregate but also industry-level data on stock returns, it examines the impact of the 2008 crisis, and it adopts a more general fractional integration approach. The evidence suggests that in emerging Asia, on both the aggregate and industry (especially for the financial sector) levels, there is more regional than global integration, and that the former became even stronger during the post-2008 crisis period. Furthermore, Japan’s influence has been declining and the Chinese stock market has become more integrated, both regionally and globally.
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