Relationship Between Demand-supply in the Housing Market and Unsold New Housing Stocks

Jang, Sewoong,Lee, Sanghyo,Kim, Juhyung,Kim, Jaejun Architectural Institute of Japan 2010 JOURNAL OF ASIAN ARCHITECTURE AND BUILDING ENGINEE Vol.9 No.2

<P>The phenomenon of unsold new housing stocks is an important indicator in the housing market system; it is directly related to the profitability of the construction business and appears as a result of an imbalance in the demand and supply of houses. Changes in demand-supply because of various factors are another phenomenon that occurs in the housing market. It is considered that these changes in demand-supply are closely related to the unsold new housing stocks. Therefore, we analyze the relationship between demand-supply in the housing market and unsold new housing stocks using the vector error correction model. We used data from Seoul as the spatial scope of this study, and the temporal scope of time series data ranged from July 2001 to July 2009. To obtain the time series data, databases of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Marine Affairs, Statistics Korea, CERIK, and Kookmin Bank were utilized. The results of variance decomposition analyses indicated that for changes in unsold new housing stocks, the explanatory powers of housing selling price indexes and housing loans were high while the explanatory powers of production factors were relatively low. Based on the results of impulse response analyses, the quantity of unsold new housing stocks showed larger changes in response to the impulses of housing prices and housing loans than to the impulse of production factors. Also, it was indicated that, among the production factors, unsold new housing stocks showed a pattern of continued change in relation to the financing status of suppliers while showing impromptu responses to the impulses of the material or manpower situation but no continued change.</P>

주택매매가격 및 전세가격과 미분양주택량의 관계성 분석

김상기(Kim Sang-Ki),이상효(Lee Sang-Hyo),김재준(Kim Jae-Jun) 대한건축학회 2010 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.26 No.1

Residential housing projects are core of domestic construction industry. However, recently, the housing market is going through a serious recession as many new houses remain unsold. Unsold housing stocks can pose a serious problem as it directly leads to liquidity crisis of construction companies. And yet, previous researches regard the matter merely as an indicator to foresee condition of the future housing market. In-depth research for the phenomenon of unsold housing stock is almost non-existent. This research attempts to analyze relations between housing sales (or rent) price and amount of unsold housing stocks, using VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The analysis result shows that presence of unsold houses is related to lower sales price. However, primarily, supply-demand imbalance in housing market first lowers housing sales price before damaging house sales. Once the housing price goes down, it leads to a large amount of unsold housing stocks.

미분양주택량 결정 요인에 관한 실증분석

전해정(HaeJung Chun) 韓國不動産學會 2014 不動産學報 Vol.56 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The Fisher-DiPasquale-Wheaton(FDW) model was used for determining the unsold housing stocks. This study made an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship of monthly unsold housing stocks, housing prices, construction cost, mortage and mortage rate in South Korea from October 2003 to May 2012 by using time series analysis. (2) RESEARCH METHOD In this study. research method was through time series analysis (VECM). (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS There was a long run equilibrium relationship between the variables, Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) was used to conduct an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. In empirically analysis, the unsold housing Stocks in shock, the unsold housing stocks greatest positive (+) reaction, mortgage impact the unsold housing stocks is negative (-) of the reaction was. Mortgage rates and construction cost impact the unsold housing stocks is positive(+). 2. RESULTS We confirmed that thoretical models and empirical results were the same and the unsold housing stocks were affected by macroeconomic variables.

미분양주택 발생과 건설업체 부실화와의 관계성 분석

최재규(Choi, Jae-Kyu),유승규(Yoo, Seung-Kyu),김재준(Kim, Jae-Jun) 대한건축학회 2013 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.29 No.6

The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 has led to a sharp increase in the number of unsold homes in our country. This has not only caused huge national and social expenditures, but has also made it challenging to manage construction companies given the slow progress of new projects and rise in debt and financial expenses. The default risk of construction companies results in economic losses to the interested parties as well as a huge burden on national finances, since it is linked to the default risk of financial institutions. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between the Expected Default Frequency and the unsold housing stock using the KMV(Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek) model, based on the assumption that there is a close relationship between unsold housing stacks and default risk of construction companies. This study has utilized the KMV model based on the option pricing theory for deriving the Expected Default Frequency of an individual construction company. The Vector Error Correction Model was used for analyzing the relationship with unsold housing stock. For calculating the Expected Default Frequency, 26 listed construction companies from 2001?2010 were selected. The results are as follows. 1) It was found that the default risk of construction companies is primarily affected by the unsold housing stock that piled up due to the housing market situation. 2) The impulse response analysis confirmed that the default risk of construction companies is primarily affected by the creation of unsold housing stock, rather than due to housing price shocks.

주택시장에서의 미분양 아파트의 역할에 대한 실증분석

정창무,김지순 대한국토·도시계획학회 2005 國土計劃 Vol.40 No.2

This paper presents an empirical model with unsold new housing units in a partial equilibrium. This approach describes unsold new housing units as a function of changes in housing prices and opportunity costs rather than as a function of ad hoc behavior of suppliers and investors. We employed Engle-Granger's error correction model(ECM) to test this hypotheses. Our estimates show that one point rise in the current housing price index leads to an 45 unit decrease in the unsold new housing stocks in Seoul and opportunity cost of investors represented by interest rate has a positive impact on the number of unsold new housing units and those of suppliers represented by won-dollar exchange rate has a negative impact on the number of unsold new housing units as predicted by the model.

주택시장의 미분양아파트 결정요인에 관한 연구

김세헌 국제부동산정책학회 2014 토지와건물 Vol.29 No.-

This study, in a bid to help solve this problem, tried to analyze with corroborative evidence how the factors of supply and demand for newly built apartments for sale in every city in the nation from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2009had impact on the unsold apartments. The results suggested that the determining factors leading the apartments not to be sold were the number of apartments supplied, sales price of the apartments, population increase rate, and interest rate. So it can be summarized that the increase in the apartments supplied, excessively soaring price of apartments, reduction in population increase rate, etc. interacted multiply in decreasing demand for newly built apartments for sale, bringing about substantial number of apartments not being sold. Thus, it is our belief that, in consideration of the these aspects, the government has to implement its future policy to resolve the issue of unsold apartments, by encouraging the supply of apartments taking into account the local demand, and by restricting excessive increase in apartment prices, and by keeping the interest rate low, so that consumers’ demand for newly built apartments increases.