Demographic Change and Long Swings of Economic Trend in Korea

Rhee, Yeong-seop 淑明女子大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1997 經濟經營論集 Vol.27 No.-

This paper examines the effect of demographic change on macroeconomic variables at the micro level allowing for age-based population heterogeneity. The empirical results show that the change in age distribution has a significant explanatory power in consumption and current account equations, but not always in the interest rate equation.

A Non-parametric Test for Structural Change in Macroeconomic Variables by the Exchange Rate Regime Shift

Rhee, Yeong seop 淑明女子大學校 經濟經營硏究所 1994 經濟經營論集 Vol.23 No.-

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether or not there is a structural change in macroeconomic variables caused by the exchange rate regime shift. The results indicate that the exchane rate variablity is associated with the freedom of the float. However, the effect of the exchange rate regime on the behavior of other variables is not clear and varies across countries. Although there is a structural change in their behavior across exchange rate regimes, the change is not necessarily attributable to the regime shift occured in the beginning of 1970s.

Macroeconomic Stability Effect of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes: Target Zone vs. Managed Float

( Yeong Seop Rhee ) 한국EU학회 2010 Asia-Pacific Journal of EU Studies Vol.8 No.1

This paper compares alternative intermediate exchange rate regimes instead of comparing an extreme regime vs. an intermediate one, and investigates whether the stabilizing effect on the exchange rate of a regime can be extended to other economic variables. Central results from the comparison of two intervention rules between a target zone and a managed float are: if the sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real exchange rate is very large or the monetary disturbance is predominant compared to the real disturbance, then the stabilizing effect on the exchange rate of a tighter intervention in an intermediate regime than the other is positively associated with the stabilizing effect on the price; if the sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real exchange rate is very small or the real disturbance is predominant, the stabilizing effect on the exchange rate of a tighter intervention can be achieved only at the expense of price stability.

Comparison of Financial Integration Process between East Asia and Europe

( Yeong Seop Rhee ),( Hee Yul Chai ) 한국EU학회 2006 Asia-Pacific Journal of EU Studies Vol.4 No.2

This paper examines the financial integration process in East Asia. It also identifies its important features from a comparative perspective with Europe. Empirical analysis on stock markets utilizing a multivariate GARCH model shows that, while financial markets have become increasingly integrated in East Asia during the 1990s, financial integration is not accompanied by financial efficiency. This contrasts with the European case where financial integration is accompanied by financial efficiency. The most important reason behind this difference is the mismatch between real integration and financial integration. Simple integration through globalization is not sufficient, but deepening regionalism through various macroeconomic co-operations is essential for East Asia to reap the benefits from financial integration.

유럽통합과 유럽금융구조의 변화

이영섭 ( Yeong Seop Rhee ),채희율 ( Hee Yul Chai ) 한국EU학회 2005 EU학연구 Vol.10 No.1

유로의 도입과정과 남북한의 점진적 화폐통합 / 통화경쟁논의를 중심으로

이영섭(Yeong Seop Rhee) 한국EU학회 2002 EU학연구 Vol.7 No.1

This paper examines the monetary unification process in Europe, focusing on the debate on currency competition approach vs. parallel currency approach, and draws implications for the gradual approach to the Korean monetary unification from the European experience. Three implications can be drawn from the study. First, although the basic stance is a gradual approach to unification, a big bang strategy may sometimes be added to provide momentum to the unification process when the proceeding is in stall. Second, in the Korean monetary unification process with only two local currencies, free currency competition approach becomes equivalent to parallel currency approach and the choice of a parallel currency will be a more important issue than that of an optimal centralization strategy. Third, it would be more appropriate to introduce real convergence criteria rather than macroeconomic stability convergence criteria adopted in Europe, because narrowing the economic gap between South and North Koreas is essential to reduce the cost of unification.

환율변동이 주식시장 통합에 미치는 영향: 동아시아와 유럽의 비교

이영섭 ( Yeong Seop Rhee ),김철수 ( Chul Soo Kim ),위경우 ( Kyeong Woo Wee ) 한국EU학회 2007 EU학연구 Vol.12 No.1

This paper compares the process of financial integration between East Asia and Europe and examine`s the effects on the integration process of intra-regional and inter-regional exchange rate volatility. Empirical analysis on stock markets shows that during the 1990s financial markets have become increasingly integrated in East Asia, but their integration is still far below compared to European markets` integration. Also, exchange rate volatility against the US dollar influences East Asian markets more than exchange rate volatility among regional currencies. Another feature is that the US market influence remains strong in East Asian financial markets while it has significantly reduced in Europe especially since the mid 1990s. The result of this paper has some implications for East Asian regional integration. First, monetary and financial cooperation should simultaneously proceed among East Asian countries. Second, simple integration through globalization is not sufficient but deepening regionalism is essential, and real regionalization should be matched with financial regionalization for East Asia to reap the benefits from financial integration. Third, the joint efforts to attain exchange rate stability, macroeconomic policy coordination, concerted institution building, and establishment of market infrastructure would be necessary to strengthen financial integration and to match real integration and financial integration. Without such efforts, the prospects of financial integration in East Asia are not very promising.

아시아 환율제도와 글로벌 불균형의 조정

이영섭 ( Yeong Seop Rhee ) 한국EU학회 2010 EU학연구 Vol.15 No.1

The adjustment process of the global imbalances is expected to accompany serious trans-Pacific costs both to the US and to Asia. This study seeks to find an idea of Asian exchange rate cooperation which would be effective to induce inter-regional and intra-regional concerted actions so as to minimize the costs. One of the consensuses is that the efforts to adjust internal imbalances should be promoted to adjust external imbalances. However, the belt-tightening in the U.S. combined with consumption expansion in East Asia is only partially effective but not enough to resolve the global imbalance problem. To resolve the remaining imbalances, the exchange rates should be adjusted. This is likely to lead to intra-regional conflicts in East Asia because the optimal adjustment of exchange rates will differ and the impact of the adjustment process will vary among East Asian countries. To resolve the conflicts and achieve regional exchange rate stability, the most ambitious alternative of all is a monetary union, creating a single Asian currency. But, given limits on the willingness of national governments in East Asia to cede sovereignty to a supranational regional institution, a monetary union is a long term goal. A more modest option would be to create an exchange-rate arrangement based on the basket of East Asian currencies.

남북한 통화의 교환비율결정에 관한 연구

이영섭 한국비교경제학회 1997 비교경제연구 Vol.5 No.-

우리나라 외환시장개입에 장단기 효과 분석

이영섭 한국금융학회 1997 金融學會誌 Vol.2 No.1

본 논문에서는 VAR 모형을 이용해 外換市場介入이 換率에 미치는 영향을 動態的으로 분석하고, 또한 통화량 및 외환시장개입 등의 政策變數와 경상수지 및 이자율 등의 市場變數가 환율에 미치는 상대적인 영향력을 장 단기에 걸쳐 비교하고 있다. 실증분석 결과 外換市場介入의 환율에 대한 영향은 단기적으로 일시 나타나기도 하지만 長期的으로 消滅되고, 경상수지의 영향은 中 長期的으로도 남아 있는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 換率變動을 설명하는 데 있어 외환시장개입 등 政策變數보다는 이자율 및 경상수지 등의 市場變數의 역할이 長期的으로 중요한 것으로 보인다. 그러나 平價切上期에 있어서는 外換市場介入이 相對的으로 중요한 역할을 하고 있는 것으로 나타나고 있다.