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      • Epidemiology and Transmission of Respiratory Infections in Thai Army Recruits: A Prospective Cohort Study

        Tam, Clarence C.,Anderson, Kathryn B.,Offeddu, Vittoria,Weg, Alden,Macareo, Louis R.,Ellison, Damon W.,Rangsin, Ram,Fernandez, Stefan,Gibbons, Robert V.,Yoon, In-Kyu,Simasathien, Sriluck The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygi 2018 The American journal of tropical medicine and hygi Vol.99 No.4

        <P><B>Abstract.</B></P><P>Military recruits are at high risk of respiratory infections. However, limited data exist on military populations in tropical settings, where the epidemiology of respiratory infections differs substantially from temperate settings. We enrolled recruits undertaking a 10-week military training at two Royal Thai Army barracks between May 2014 and July 2015. We used a multiplex respiratory panel to analyze nose and throat swabs collected at the start and end of the training period, and from participants experiencing respiratory symptoms during follow-up. Paired sera were tested for influenza seroconversion using a hemagglutinin inhibition assay. Overall rates of upper respiratory illness and influenza-like illness were 3.1 and 2.0 episodes per 100 person-weeks, respectively. A pathogen was detected in 96% of samples. The most commonly detected microbes were <I>Haemophilus influenzae</I> type B (62.7%) or non–type B (58.2%) and rhinovirus (22.4%). At baseline, bacterial colonization was high and included <I>H. influenzae</I> type B (82.3%), <I>H. influenzae</I> non–type B (31.5%), <I>Klebsiella pneumoniae</I> (14.6%), <I>Staphylococcus aureus</I> (8.5%), and <I>Streptococcus pneumoniae</I> (8.5%). At the end of follow-up, colonization with <I>H. influenzae</I> non–type B had increased to 74.1%, and <I>S. pneumoniae</I> to 33.6%. In the serology subset, the rate of influenza infection was 3.4 per 100 person-months; 58% of influenza infections resulted in clinical disease. Our study provides key data on the epidemiology and transmission of respiratory pathogens in tropical settings. Our results emphasize the need for improved infection prevention and control in military environments, given the high burden of illness and potential for intense transmission of respiratory pathogens.</P>

      • Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk

        Salje, Henrik,Cummings, Derek A. T.,Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel,Katzelnick, Leah C.,Lessler, Justin,Klungthong, Chonticha,Thaisomboonsuk, Butsaya,Nisalak, Ananda,Weg, Alden,Ellison, Damon,Macareo, Lou Nature Publishing Group UK 2018 Nature Vol.557 No.7707

        <P>As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved(1). Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual-and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements)(2,3). We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of <= 1: 40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres > 1: 40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres <= 1: 100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age.</P>

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