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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Tarmizi Ismail (검색결과 3 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
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Development of an Optimal Reservoir Pumping Operation for Adaptation to Climate Change
Tarmizi Ismail,Sobri Harun,Zaitul Marlizawati Zainudin,Shamsuddin Shahid,Abu Bakar Fadzil,Usman Ullah Sheikh 대한토목학회 2017 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.21 No.1
Optimization of operation rule curve of Layang reservoir located in southern part of peninsular Malaysia under climate change uncertainties has been presented in this study. Downscaled climate data were incorporated in a lumped rainfall-runoff model to project daily reservoir inflow, which was then used to determine the reservoir operation rule curves to minimize the operation cost. The results reveal that climatic change will cause a rise of temperature in the range of 1.5-2.9oC, but decrease in rainfall in most of the months in the end of this century which will casue a change in the seasonal pattern of inflow to reservoir. Comparison of historical and model generated operation costs indicates that annual savings of 23% and 33% is possible with optimized reservoir operation rule curves. Assessment of the performance of the optimized operation curve under climate change scenarios shows that it will be able to cope with the changing pattern of reservoir inflow with proper adjustment. It is expected that the method presented in this paper to derive pumping operation curves to optimize the total volume of water to be pumped from various sources to reservoir can be useful for reservoir operators in the context of climate change.
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Distributional Changes in Rainfall and River Flow in Sarawak, Malaysia
Zulfaqar Sa’adi,Shamsuddin Shahid,Tarmizi Ismail,정은성,Xiao-Jun Wang 한국기상학회 2017 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.53 No.4
Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.
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Characteristics of Annual and Seasonal Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in Iraq
Saleem A. Salman,Shamsuddin Shahid,Tarmizi Ismail,Kamal Ahmed,Eun-Sung Chung,Xiao-Jun Wang 한국기상학회 2019 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.55 No.3
Changes in the temperature and precipitation have significantly affected water resources and agricultural productions in many countries across the world. The objective of the present study is to analyze the changing patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in Iraq for the period 1961–2010. Monthly gridded precipitation and temperature data of Global precipitation climate center (GPCC) and climate research unit (CRU) respectively having a spatial resolution of 0.5° were used in this study to show the spatial pattern in trends. The rate of change in rainfall and temperature was estimated using Sen’s slope method while the significance of change was confirmed using Mann-Kendal test (MK) and the modified Mann-Kendall test (mMK). The results revealed large differences in the number of grid points showing significant changes in rainfall and temperature using MK and mMK methods. The mMK method revealed that the annual rainfall is decreasing at a rate of −1.0 to −5.0 mm/year in the northwest part of Iraq. The seasonal precipitations were found to decrease in spring (−0.4 to −2.56 mm/ year) and winter (−0.4 to −2.0 mm/year), increase in summer (0.06 to 0.21 mm/year) at a few grid points and no change in autumn. On the other hand, a sharp rise in annual average of daily mean (0.42 to 0.64 °C/decade), maximum (0.39 to 0.65 °C/ decade) and minimum (0.36 to 0.69 °C/decade) temperature was observed.
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