http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
A Novel Approach to Forecasting the Bulk Freight Market
Vangelis TSIOUMAS,Stratos PAPADIMITRIOU,Yiannis SMIRLIS,Shaher Zahran ZAHRAN 한국해운물류학회 2017 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.33 No.1
The fast-paced and ever changing freight market compels maritime executives to use sound forecasting tools. This paper aims to enhance the forecasting accuracy of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) by means of developing a multivariate Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX). The proposed model incorporates the Chinese steel production, the dry bulk fleet development and a new composite indicator, the Dry Bulk Economic Climate Index (DBECI). The predictive power of this approach is evaluated against a univariate ARIMA framework, which serves as a benchmark model. The selection of explanatory variables and the model specification are validated using a series of pertinent tests. The results demonstrate that the VARX model outperforms the ARIMA approach, suggesting that the selected independent variables can substantially improve the accuracy of BDI forecasts. The present study is of interest to maritime practitioners, as it provides useful insights into the direction of the freight market and allows them to make informed decisions.
Effect of Terminal Layouts on the Performance of Marine Terminals for Mega-containerships
Akio IMAI,Etsuko NISHIMURA,Stratos PAPADIMITRIOU 한국항해항만학회 2006 한국항해항만학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2 No.-
The appearance of over 10,000 TEU containerships (so called Mega-containerships) is determined. In order to operate these ships effectively, the number of these calling ports will diminish, and then feeder ships will transport car-goes from the hub-ports where mega-containerships call to the destination ports. In the hub-ports, handling containers for mega-containerships become huger, thus it is important for terminals to deal with cargo handling as soon as possible. However, the present terminal layout might have the limitation of maximum throughput per time unit. And then the transit time at the ports become longer. Therefore, we investigate the effect on some different terminal layouts containerships on three types of terminal layouts. First one is the conventional type consisted by some linear berths, most container terminals in the world are normally this type. Second one is the indented type consisted by linear the floating type consisted by linear berths and the floating berth. On this type, mega-containerships can moor between linear and floating berths. The merits of this type are that we can also handle from both sides of mega-containerships simultaneously, and ships can go through between linear berth and floating berths. Thus it is easier for ships to moor and leave berths. Under such assumptions, we examine the numerical experiments. In most cases, the total service times on the indented type are the longest among three types, these on the floating type are the next longer. Those reasons are that these layouts have the differences of berth occupancy obtained by the time and space axes, and whether the precedence constraints of ship service order needs or not.
Constructing Container Shipping Networks with Empty Container Repositioning among Calling Ports
Koichi SHINTANI,Akio IMAI,Etsuko NISHIMURA,Stratos PAPADIMITRIOU 한국항해항만학회 2006 한국항해항만학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2 No.-
This paper addresses the design of container liner shipping service networks by explicitly taking into account empty container repositioning and container fleet size. Two key and interrelated issues of deployments of ships and containers are usually treated separately by most existing studies on shipping network design. In this paper, both issues are considered simultaneously. The problem is formulated as a two-stage problem: the upper-problem being formulated as a Knapsack problem and the lower-problem as a Flow problem. A genetic algorithm based heuristic is developed for the problem. Through a number of numerical experiments that were conducted it was shown that the problem considering empty container repositioning provides a more insightful solution than the one without.