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[특집] 동북아의 변화하는 전략 환경과 한미관계의 미래
J.Stapleton Roy(J.Stapleton Roy) 한국전략문제연구소 2001 전략연구 Vol.8 No.3
One of the most positive aspects of the post Cold War period is that trends on the Korean peninsula during the 1990s have made it possible for the first time since World War II realistically to contemplate the emergence of a unified Korea within a foreseeable time frame. This is a remarkable development that would have been unthinkable a few years earlier. Nevertheless, realistic observers recognize that there are still formidable obstacles hindering progress toward the goal of a unified Korea. Foremost among these is the nature of the regime in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Moreover, while the progress achieved in establishing a productive dialogue between the Republic of Korea and the DPRK, and in improving communications between the United States and North Korea, is highly significant, it has not yet resulted in a significant lowering of the military posture along the demilitarized zone dividing North and South Korea. As long as these circumstances remain unchanged, progress toward Korean unification will face many impediments, and the process is likely to be prolonged and difficult. There are, therefore, sound reasons to begin considering the nature of the security arrangements for the Korean peninsula that will be needed if and when Korean unification occurs. Factors that need to be addressed include whether or not there will be a need for modifications to the U.S.-ROK alliance; the size, role, and functions of U.S. forces in Korea; the likely responses of other major powers; and the agenda items that should be addressed in U.S.-ROK consultations. This paper is intended to make a modest contribution to this process. Korean unification will both be influenced by and have a profound impact on the strategic environment of Northeast Asia. The geopolitical characteristics of this region have no parallel elsewhere in the world. The Korean peninsula lies at the intersection of three great powers - China, Japan, and Russia - and for much of the last century the United States has been a major factor in the balance of power in Northeast Asia as well. In the space of barely two decades, there was a dramatic transformation of great power relationships in East Asia that made it possible to think seriously about Korean unification as an achievable goal. The United States has had a long-standing interest in lowering tensions on the Korean peninsula and preventing the emergence of security threats. Because of their common interests in this regard, the United States has maintained close ties with the ROK for a half century and would wish these to continue even under the altered circumstances that would result from Korean unification. Realistically speaking, however, the United States will face difficult adjustments in its security posture that it will wish to consider carefully. The United States will need to assess developments from the standpoint of the overall power balance in Asia. In particular, the United States will give special attention to ensuring that Korean unification does not adversely affect the ability of the United States to continue to playa stabilizing role in the region. All four can be profoundly affected by the manner in which Korean unification occurs, and each will wish to see its interests accommodated to the maximum extent possible. Clearly, the process of unification will be greatly facilitated if relations among the major affected powers are harmonious. This cannot be taken for granted. Accordingly, undue pessimism is no more justified than naive optimism in assessing whether great power relationships will facilitate or hinder progress toward unification on the Korean peninsula. Expecially, if not managed carefully, Korean unification could have a profound impact on Sino-U.S. relations. The impact of Korean unification on Sino-U.S. relations would depend on the process by which unification was achieved.
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