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Early-stage Project Outcome Prediction Considering Human Factors
Satoshi Urata,Takaaki Kawanaka,Shuichi Rokugawa 대한산업공학회 2022 Industrial Engineeering & Management Systems Vol.21 No.1
In the early stages of a project, project managers need a way to connect concrete actions to the factors that affect project success. This study aims to upgrade project management methodology by using machine learning technologies to predict project results. Using a new deep learning model called “deep tensor,” we predict project results at the time of completion—including quality, cost, and delivery time—by evaluating the project’s state in its earliest stage using various types of project knowledge assets. The prediction results suggest that the predictive accuracy of the deep tensor model is more accurate than that of the random forest or multiple regression model. The way to use this model to recommend specific advice by using the factors that most influenced the model’s predictions is also presented. This research provides a method for sharing difficult-to-share knowledge across projects and will be useful for early, tangible improvement measures in the project execution phase.
Urata, Yuji,Huang, Kuiyun,Im, Myungshin,Lee, Induk,Deng, Jinsong,Ip, WingHuen,Krimm, Hans,Liping, Xin,Ohno, Masanori,Qiu, Yulei,Sugita, Satoshi,Tashiro, Makoto,Wei, Jianyan,Yamaoka, Kazutaka,Zheng, We IOP Publishing 2009 ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS - Vol.706 No.1
<P>We present multi-band results for GRB071010B based on Swift, Suzaku, and ground-based optical observations. This burst is an ideal target to evaluate the robustness of the E-peak(src) - E-iso and E-peak(src) - E-gamma relations, whose studies have been in stagnation due to the lack of the combined estimation of E-peak(src) and long-term optical monitoring. The joint prompt spectral fitting using Swift/Burst Alert Telescope and Suzaku/Wide-band All-sky Monitor data yielded the spectral peak energy as E-peak(src) of 86.5(-6.3)(+6.4) keV and E-iso of 2.25(-0.16)(+0.19) x 10(52) erg with z = 0.947. The optical afterglow light curve is well fitted by a simple power law with temporal index alpha = -0.60 +/- 0.02. The lower limit of temporal break in the optical light curve is 9.8 days. Our multi-wavelength analysis reveals that GRB071010B follows E-peak(src) - E-iso but violates the E-peak(src) - E-gamma and E-iso - E-peak(src) - t(jet)(src) at more than the 3 sigma level.</P>