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Party Fabrication Constitutional Reform and the Rise of Thai Rak Thai
Allen Hicken 동아시아연구원 2006 Journal of East Asian Studies Vol.6 No.3
Among the most interesting questions in Thai politics today is how to account for the rise and (until recently) the success of Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai party. In this article I describe and analyze some of the factors that contributed to the rise and success of Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai. I argue that neither Thaksins personal assets nor the effects of the crisis are enough to explain Thai Rak Thais rise and success. I focus, instead, on the 1997 changes to Thailands constitution. These institutional reforms were crucial because they altered Thailands political-institutional landscape in fundamental ways. The reforms provided new opportunities and incentives for political actors which Thaksin and his party adeptly took advantage of. I argue that the key reforms that helped pave the way for the rise of Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai were those reforms which helped reduce the number of political parties and increased the power of the Prime Minister relative to coalition partners and intra-party factions.
Late to the Party: The Development of Partisanship in Thailand
Allen Hicken 서강대학교 동아연구소 2013 TRaNS(Trans –Regional and –National Studies of Sou Vol.1 No.2
This article investigates the emergence of new partisan identities in Thailand. Using data from Thailand’s last several elections I trace the emergence of partisanship over the last 15 years, particularly in the north and northeast. The change in the nature of partisanship has helped turn long-simmering tensions into an increasingly intractable political conflict. This mass partisan alignment has upset the equilibrium ofThai politics, transforming what was once an inefficient but modest-stakes game of political horse-trading into a zero sum game with extremely high stakes.
Allen Hicken,Joel Sawat Selway 동아시아연구원 2012 Journal of East Asian Studies Vol.12 No.1
In 2007, those behind the 2006 coup drafted a new constitution specifically aimed at turning back the political and policymaking clock to the pre-1997 era. However, in the preceding decade a significant transformation of Thai politics had taken place. Specifically, social cleavages had become politicized and particized in ways we have not seen before, and policy-focused, popular party programs had become part and parcel of serious party campaign strategies. Focusing on health policy, we thus argue in this article that institutional reforms have had predictable and observable implications for policymaking in Thailand, but only when considered in the context of changes to the broader social structure and other political conditions. While the 1997 reforms brought about a well-documented shift toward a more centralized, coordinated, and nationally focused policymaking environment, the 2007 reforms have been less successful at reversing that impact. In short, the coup makers are finding it harder than they supposed to force the genie back into the bottle.
The Persistence of Ethnopopulist Support: The Case of Rodrigo Duterte's Philippines
Dean Dulay,Allen Hicken,Ronald Holmes 동아시아연구원 2022 Journal of East Asian Studies Vol.22 No.3
The past few years have seen an emergence of populist leaders around the world, who have not only accrued but also maintained support despite rampant criticism, governance failures, and the ongoing COVID pandemic. The Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte is the best illustration of this trend, with approval ratings rarely dipping below 80 percent. What explains his high levels of robust public support? We argue that Duterte is an ethnopopulist who uses ethnic appeals in combination with insider vs. outsider rhetoric to garner and maintain public support. Moreover, we argue that ethnic affiliation is a main driver of support for Duterte, and more important than alternative factors such as age, education, gender, or urban vs. rural divides. We provide evidence of Duterte's marriage of ethnic and populist appeals, then evaluate whether ethnicity predicts support for Duterte, using 15 rounds of nationally representative public opinion data. Identifying with a non-Tagalog ethnicity (like Duterte) leads to an 8 percent increase in approval for Duterte, significantly larger than any other explanatory factor. Among Duterte supporters, a non-Tagalog ethnicity is associated with 19 percent increase in strong versus mild support. Ethnicity is the only positive and significant result, suggesting that it strongly explains why Duterte's support remains robust. Alternative explanations, such as social desirability bias and alternative policy considerations, do not explain our results.