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Development of a Prototype Hazard Component for a Typhoon Risk Model over Korea
Steven Cocke,DW Shin,권재일,김기영 건국대학교 기후연구소 2020 기후연구 Vol.15 No.3
Typhoons are a major threat to Korea and many parts of the world. Typhoons can cause loss of life, damage to buildings, industry and infrastructure. In order to objectively and quantitatively assess the risk presented by typhoons and other natural hazards, catastrophe models are often used, especially in the insurance industry. Catastrophe models determine the probability of occurrence of natural hazards at target locations, along with associated damage and other impacts. Catastrophe models can also be designed to estimate the financial cost of the natural hazard. As Korea’s insurance industry develops and grows, catastrophe models focused on Korea will be needed. We have initiated a project to develop a catastrophe model for Korea. The first phase of this project is to develop the natural hazard component which estimates the probability of storm tracks and associated wind speeds impacting the Korean peninsula and islands. We discuss a preliminary prototype of natural hazard component of the model in this paper.
Seasonal probability of precipitation forecasts using a weighted ensemble approach
Shin, D. W.,Kang, S.-D.,Cocke, S.,Goo, T.-Y.,Kim, H.-D. John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2008 International journal of climatology Vol.28 No.14
<P>A weighted ensemble (WE) method is revisited and employed to issue an improved seasonal probability of precipitation (POP) forecast. Nine boreal summer time seasonal precipitation hindcasts obtained from the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble system are used to assess the suitability of the WE approach for seasonal POP predictions. Owing to its performance-based selective nature for assigning weights, the WE method produced marginally superior seasonal POP forecasts compared to the conventional approach. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society</P>