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정혁 ( Hyeok Jeong ),최창용 ( Changyoung Choi ),최지영 ( Jiyoung Choi ),김석진(논평),송민기(논평) 한국금융연구원 2019 한국경제의 분석 Vol.25 No.3
North Korea's trade volume in 2016 was three times higher than in the mid-1990s. North Korea’s external openness seems to have considerably increased, but it still faces difficulties in expanding its external openness due to economic sanctions by the international community. This study uses Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodriguez-Claire's model (ACR model), which provides a way to quantitatively measure the gains from trade from an economic welfare, applicable to an extensive classes of international trade models. In the ACR model, the import penetration ratio, defined as the ratio of imports to domestic absorption, indicates the degree of the openness of an economy, which determines the “gains from trade” in terms of the increase of the real income from switching a closed economy into an open one. We estimate the North Korea’s import penetration rates during the 1996-2016 period using diverse sources of UN Comtrade, IMF DOTS and KOTRA as well as the inter-Korean trade data from the Unification Ministry of Korea. Based on these estimates and our newly constructed estimates of North Korea’s GDP, we calibrate the ACR model to infer the gains from trade of North Korean economy for the same period. We find that North Korea's import penetration rate has shown a gradual increasing trend, indicating an expansion of international openness. This trend has become especially clear since 2000 when the North Korean economy began stabilizing after the end of the “Arduous March”, although it slightly faltered between 2014 and 2016. The gains from trade of North Korean economy ranges between 1.8% and 4.5% depending on the data sources and the trade elasticity estimates, which turns out to be robust to other measures of North Korean GDP in the literature.