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인도 대외정책의 연속성과 변화 분석: 모디 정부의 위협인식 변화에 따른 RCEP 가입 철회와 IPEF 가입 사례연구
조원선,이현익 한국인도학회 2024 印度硏究 Vol.29 No.1
How are the continuity and changes in India’s foreign policy distinguished across different periods? Why and how does the Modi government employ different foreign strategies during its first and second terms? To answer these research questions, the research begins with a historical overview of India’s foreign policy evolution, identifying pivotal changes from the era of idealistic non-alignment (1947–1962), to realistic non-alignment with an emphasis on strategic autonomy (1962–1991), followed by active participation in the international order for economic recovery (1991–2001), and a phase of proactive engagement for economic goals within a liberal international order to enhance international stature (2001–2018), to Modi's second term (2019 onwards), characterized by strategic engagement for economic security and international status enhancement. This period marks a shift towards self-reliance and active supply chain reconfiguration, underlining a strategic pivot in response to global economic and geopolitical dynamics. This analysis reveals that India’s foreign policy consistently applies strategic principles unique to each period, aimed at securing core and vital interests—the geopolitical balance of power and status quo, material power and capacity enhancement, and international stature and leadership with soft power. Under these strategic principles, continuous foreign policies are maintained. Utilizing prospect theory and a historical-theoretical case study approach, the study delves into the empirical evidence from Indian political manifestos, the Ministry of External Affairs' annual reports, and other official documents to articulate how shifts in threat perceptions have influenced India's strategic decisions. Notably, it examines the recalibration of core interests that prompted India's withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and its subsequent engagement with the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Building on this analysis, the study posits that differences in threat perceptions of core interests between Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first and second terms have driven distinct changes in India's foreign policy, leading to the formulation of new strategic principles. This framework has guided the implementation of continuous policies under the stregic principles. Specifically, the study argues that the Modi government's decision to withdraw from RCEP and join IPEF reflects a strategic recalibration unique to Modi's second term, undertaken to safeguard these core interests without incurring losses.