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Driving Forces of Inflation Expectations
장병득,김영세 한국경제학회 2017 The Korean Economic Review Vol.33 No.2
This paper addresses some important issues regarding the nature of inflation expectations. By utilizing measures of inflation expectations formed by consumers and professionals, a series of empirical applications are performed to identify main driving forces of variations in inflation expectations. Tests of forecast efficiency consistently indicate that survey expectations are not rational, and thus the expectations of real-world economic actors, not rational agents in a model, are found to be what matter for price setting. As a logical consequence of these findings, we explore potential factors agents rely on when forecasting inflation by looking more closely on price changes in consumption expenditure categories as well as some key macroeconomic aggregates. Empirical results suggest that agents think differently how aggregate inflation evolves mainly due to the fact that each type of agents employs a distinct set of information, which can be interpreted as a dominant source of disagreement among agents.
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벡터자기회귀모형(VAR)에 의한 산업재산권 출원량 예측
장병득 ( Byeongdeuk Jang ),김혁준 ( Hyukjoon Kim ) 한국지식재산연구원 2024 지식재산연구 Vol.19 No.2
This study predicts the volume of industrial property applications using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that incorporates macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, R&D, inflation, and interest rates. By experimenting with multiple variable combinations, 24 VAR models were derived, and the optimal model with the smallest prediction error was selected based on the forecast accuracy measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Using this optimal VAR model, we forecast industrial property applications for the next ten years (2023-2032). The results indicate that industrial property applications are projected to increase annually by 5.01%, with patents increasing by 3.61%, utility models decreasing by 3.29%, designs increasing by 0.72%, and trademarks increasing by 1.96%.
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Dispersion of Inflation Expectations: Stylized Facts, Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Implications
김영세,장병득 한국경제학회 2015 The Korean Economic Review Vol.31 No.1
Building on time-series and cross-sectional properties of survey forecasts, this paper documents a fruitful set of stylized facts of inflation expectations in Korea that a macroeconomic theory must aim to explain. Despite the fact that survey measures of inflation expectations have a similar central tendency, the amount of disagreement among different types of economic agents appears to be substantial and shows no clear relationship with relative price variability. The analysis of micro-level inflation expectations data suggests that inflation uncertainty measured by dispersion of households expectations relies not only on inflation regime but also on relative price variability. Each survey forecast has the ability to explain the path of future inflation, but surprisingly with the wrong direction from the rationality perspectives. Percentile regression analysis yields robust evidence of bounded rationality for the households.
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