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李時伯 서울大學校 保健大學院 1994 보건학논집 Vol.31 No.1
Population policy is a part of development policy. As long as the development plan of the nation exists, a population policy, whatever pattern it may assume, should be maintained. As the official statistics of the government indicates, there has been an increase in the number of eligible women until the middle of 1990's while population growth rate has also been increasing since 1988. At the same time, it is observed that some age specific fertility rates are also increasing. The present situation of the nation is faced with the secondary population explosion of the baby-boom generation after the Korean War becomes the enormous pressure to the development. The family planning that is complacent with quantitative performance of services has some structural problems in terms of quality such as high proportion of induced abortion, unwanted pregnancy, and sterilization that is highly dependent of the government free charge program. If we are not concerned about these problems of population and family planning program, the situation might become critical, impeding the national development. Recognizing that every problem of our society is related to population problems, we should overcome the weakness of the present population policy. Population policies need to be further set up for the provision of family planning services for some special groups (the urban poor, residents living in remote areas), appropriate distribution of population, improvement of population quality, and population planning for the welfare society.
이시백,김선미 서울大學校 保健大學院 1996 國民保健硏究所硏究論叢 Vol.6 No.2
The purpose of the study is to find out the implications for the solution of population concentration in big cities by analyzing population concentration and its changing trend and inter-regional population migration pattern. The study analyzed the degree of population concentration by using Gini Concentration and Duncan Index in 16 cities including Seoul through 1987 to 1995. The findings of the study are as follows: 1. An analysis on the changing trend of population size showed that nationwide average population growth rate was 0.93% for 1987-1994. The average population growth rates by city were high in Sungnam, 6.85%, Suwon, 5.18% and Anyang, 5.15%. It is noted that Mokpo and Masan showed minus growth rates, 1.02% and 3.18% respectively. 2. Regarding the total population migration, the number of migratory population got higher in proportion to regional population in the order of Seoul, Busan, Daegu and Inchon. The total population migration rates of big cities such as Seoul and Busan decreased whereas those of Inchon, Kwangiu, Suwon, Sungnam and Anyang were over 50%. The nationwide rate of total population migration was over 20% for 1987-1992 and later it showed a decreasing trend recording 19.99% in 1993 and 19.77% in 1994. 3. Most of in-migration and out-migration were to outskirts of major cities and the next was Seoul city, which showed the fact that the distance was the important factor affecting the migration. In addition, the migration from metropolitan cities such as Seoul, Busan, Daegu to the nearby satellite cities accounted for the largest part of total migration, which showed the fact that the broadening of three big cities are going on constantly. 4. Regarding the net migration, Seoul and Busan have recorded the minus net migration rate since 1990 and 1989. The satellite cities near Seoul recorded the high net migration rate, which showed the intensive reversion. Mokpo, Pohang, Ulsan and Masan have recorded minus net migration rate since the truning point of 1990. The degree of population concentration to big cities was examined by usig Duncan Index and Gini Concentration. Gini Concentration were 0.4658 in 1980. 0.5216 in 1985, 0.5744 in 1990 and 0.5842 in 1994. The period for which Gini Concentration increased the greatest was from 1981 to 1985.
이시백 서울大學校 保健大學院 1996 보건학논집 Vol.33 No.1
In measuring birth rate, we need to control for the effect of population composition. One such measure would be a standardized birth rate, which crude birth rate standardized for age and sex composition. The crude birth rate in Korea fell dramatically from 1960 to the recent year: from 43.0 in 1961 to 16.5 in 1993 as a decline of 61.6%. A question about this decline in crude birth rate is whether the result from real declines in the fertility of married women or changes in population structure. In order to measure to assess the trends in fertility, the present study computed standardized birth rates. The crude birth rates between 1970 and 1980 declined by 20.7%, 1980 and 1993 by 29.5%, and 1970 and 1993 by 44.1% respectively. If population structure of 1970 remained constant to 1980, the birth rate in 1993 have fallen 8.8 instead of 16.5, declined about 70% instead of 44.1%. An illustrating the dramatic effects of the population composition is note that if the age structure of 1993 had prevailed in 1970 the birth rate would have been 55.1 instead of 29.5, without of no change in age specific fertility. Therefore, for the period 1970-1993 almost 59% of the birth rate decline was due to the changed age structure.