논문 : 수해로 인한 농작물의 합리적 피해액 산정

이길춘 ( Kil Choon Lee ),심기오 ( Kee Oh Shim ) 단국대학교 산업기술연구소 2003 산업기술연구 Vol.4 No.-

DR3M-II를 이용한 도시배수유역의 유출해석

민상기,이길춘,Min, Sang-Gi,Lee, Kil-Choon 한국수자원학회 2005 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.38 No.9

미국 지질조사국(U.S Geological Survey)의 강우-유출모형 DR3M-II(Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model)를 이용해 도시배수유역의 유출해석을 수행하였다. DR3M-II는 강우사상을 입력자료로 하여 수지상의 관거 또는 자연수로망으로 구성된 도시유역에서의 유출추적을 위해 개발된 모형이다. 대상유역인 산본신도시에서의 실측유출자료를 이용한 모형의 검정 및 검증을 수행하였으며, Rosenbrock기법을 이용해 최적매개변수를 유도하였다. 검증결과 첨두유출량의 평균오차는 $7.4\%$로 상당히 양호한 결과를 보여주었다. 매개변수에 대한 민감도 분석결과 비교적 작은 강우강도의 비가 내릴 경우는 유효 불투수지역의 면적이 첨두유출량이나 유출체적에 가장 민감한 영향을 미치는 인자였으나, 큰 강우강도에서는 조도계수와 유역경사를 정의하는 운동파방정식의 계수 ${\alpha}$가 가장 민감한 영향을 미치는 인자인 것으로 나타났다. 대체적으로 첨두유출량보다는 유출체적이 침투능이나 토양함수조건을 정의하는 매개변수에 보다 민감한 반응을 보였으며, 매개변수 ${\alpha}$는 첨두유출량에 보다 민감한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey's DR3M-II(Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model) was applied for small urban drainage. DR3M-II is a watershed model for routing storm runoff through a branched system of pipes and natural channels using rainfall input. The model was calibrated and verified using short term rainfall-runoff data collected from Sanbon basin. Also, the parameters were optimized using Rosenbrock technic. An estimated simulation error for peak discharge was about 7.4 percent and the result was quite acceptable. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the percent of effective impervious area and ${\alpha}$ defining surface slope and roughness were the most sensitive variables affecting runoff volumes and peak discharge for low and high intensity storm respectively. In most cases, soil moisture accounting and infiltration parameters are the variables that give more effects to runoff volumes than peak discharge. Parameter ${\alpha}$ showed the opposite result.

하천 홍수량의 크기 및 빈도 결정

노재식,이길춘,Noh, Jae Sik,Lee, Kil Choon 대한토목학회 1992 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.12 No.2

본 연구에서는 한강유역의 6개 관측점 (T/M국)에 대하여 단기간 기록년수의 홍수량 자료를 통계학적 방법에 기초된 홍수빈도해석모형인 POT모형에 적용하여 빈도해석을 실시함으로써 모형의 적용 타당성을 검토함과 아울러 하천유역의 지점별 홍수량의 빈도 및 크기를 추정하였고, 미계측 유역에서 수공구조물의 계획설계에 기준이 될 수 있는 설계 홍수량을 산정할 수 있는 지역빈도해석에 의한 통계학적 지역화 모형의 개발가능성을 검토 하였다. In this study, six gaging stations(T/M bureau) in the Han River basin were selected for flood frequency analysis and was carried out frequency analysis by POT(peaks Over a Threshold) model where existing flood data of short record length are available. Frequency and magnitudes of each station floods in the river basins were estimated by POT model based on statistical method, and also were compared with standard errors to verify applicability of the estimates by POT model. Furthermore, in order to evaluate for the adequate design flood which is needed for the design of the hydrologic structures in the ungaged watersheds, it is considered to be possible to develop the statistical regionalized model by regional frequency analysis.

우리 나라 地點雨量資料의 分布型 設定에 關한 硏究(其Ⅰ)

李元煥(Lee Won Hwan),李吉春(Lee Kil Choon) 대한토목학회 1971 대한토목학회지 Vol.19 No.1

하천홍수량의 지역화 회귀모형개발을 위한 지역빈도해석

노재식,이길춘,Noh, Jae Sik,Lee, Kil Choon 대한토목학회 1993 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.13 No.3

본 연구는 자연하천 유역에서의 수위관측점들을 대상으로 지점 홍수빈도해석을 실시하고 하천홍수량의 지역빈도해석에 의한 지역화 회귀모형을 개발한 것이다. 홍수빈도해석은 국내 주요 5대 하천유역인 한강, 금강, 영산강, 섬진강 및 낙동강 유역내에 있는 자연하천관측점들을 대상으로 홍수빈도모형을 이용하여 지점별 홍수량의 크기 및 빈도를 추정하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 홍수빈도예측을 위한 모형의 적용성과 효용성을 비교, 검토하였다. 그 결과 단기간 기록년수의 자료에서는 부분기간치계열 방법의 POT(Peaks Over a Threshold)모형이 연최대치계열 방법의 ANNMAX(ANNual MAXimum) 모형보다 효과적이고 합리적임이 판명되었다. 지역 홍수빈도해석에서 홍수빈도모형에 의한 지점별 홍수추정량과 홍수유출에 영향을 미치는 지형학적 유역 특성인자들간의 상관분석법에 의해 미계측 지점에서의 설계홍수량 추정이 용이한 지역화 회귀모형을 개발하고, 첨두홍수량과 유역 특성인자들간의 상관도를 재현기간별로 작성 제시하였다. The major purpose of this study is to develop a regionalized regression model, which predicts flood peaks from the characteristics of the ungaged catchments, through the regional flood frequency analysis for the selected stage gauging stations located on several natural rivers of Korea. The magnitude and the frequency of flood peaks with specified recurrence intervals were estimated from the flood frequency analysis on the 28 selected stage gauging stations distributed on the five major rivers of Korea. The results of the analysis were compared with the predictions from the two different flood frequency models. From the statistical evaluation of these models, it was revealed that the POT model (Peaks Over a Threshold model), which is based on the partial duration method, is more effective in predicting flood peaks from short period records than the ANNMAX model (ANNual MAXimum model) which is based on the annual maximum series method. A regionalized regression model was developed to facilitate the estimation of design floods for ungaged catchments through the regression analysis between flood peaks and the topographic characteristics of the catchments assumed to be important in runoff processes. In addition to this, the correlation diagrams are presented which show the relationships between flood peaks with specified recurrence intervals and the major characteristics of the catchments.

水資源 組織을 위한 最適化 技法에 관하여

李吉春,金漢哲 단국대학교 1978 論文集 Vol.12 No.-

Several techniques of optimization, namely, linear programming, dynamic programming and others are available to solve the optimization problems. Dynamic programming is the most used optimization technique in water resources systems. The Markovian and sequential nature of the decisions that arise in water resources problems nicely fits into the Bellman's principle of optimality on which dynamic programming is based. Dynamic programming Approch is considered as one of the most efficient and widely used optimization techniques in water resources systems.

하천 교각의 각도에 따른 수위영향 연구

李吉春,沈基五 단국대학교 1995 論文集 Vol.29 No.-

A study on the effect of the angle between the channel and the bridge piers on the increase in water level in the case of a sloped channel was carried out and the following conclusions were made. When the angle between the channel and the piers of 0°was taken as reference, the percentage rise in water level with the incline exhibited a maximum at 45°. That is the grater the slope, the more intense was the percentage rise in the water level; 11%, 5%, 3% and 3% when the slope was 1/200, 1/300, 1/400 and 1/500 respectively. When the percentage rise in the water level with the magnitude of the angle between the channel and the piers was averaged over various slopes, the average increase was 2.3%, 4.5% and 5.5% for 15°, 30° and 45° showing a gradual increase. Application of the Froude number, which is a characteristic factor of an open channel, suggested that the flow of water was inferior when the slope was steeper, while the opposite condition was observed when no hydraulic structures (piers) were present. Since increases in the slope and the angle between the channel and the piers restrict the flow of water, care must be exercised in the design of hydraulic structures, especially those for urban small channels, when steep slopes and excessive angles between the channel and the piers are to be utilized.

線型 理論에 의한 管綱의 解析

李吉春 단국대학교 1981 論文集 Vol.15 No.-

The oldest method for systematically solving the problem of pipe networks is the Hardy-Cross method, In the past few years the Newton- Raphson method has been utilized to solve large networks, However both methods of analysis require initial guesses for flow distributions, and very bad estimates of these values can lead to slow convergence or, on some cases, a situation where the successive trials do not converge and the solution cannot be found. Therefore, it is proposed herein to solve hydraulic network problems using linear network theory, which is modified to account for nonlinear effects inherent of hydraulic systems. This method does not require an initialialization as do the above methods and always converges in a relatively few iterations.

한강유역 강우 분포 특성의 비교 연구

李吉春 단국대학교 1992 論文集 Vol.26 No.-

This is a study on the comparison of rainfall distribution characteristics in the Han River basin. The results were as follows; 1. The characteristics of point and areal rainfall distribution could be represented by the various types of an exponential function. 2. Adoption of areal reduction factors or parameters in the transformation of point rainfall to areal rainfall proved to be valid. 3. Analysis of rainfall distribution characteristics could be made more accurately by dividing the Han River basin into the adequate rainfall zones.

未計測 地點에서 尖頭流量 特性値算定에 관한 硏究 : 安城川과 揷橋川을 中心으로

李吉春 단국대학교 1985 論文集 Vol.19 No.-

This study aims at the estimation of the characteristic values of the peak flows of the ungaged small livers-the An Sung and Sab Gyo rivers-in accordance with the actual characteristic factors of the river basins. The study utilizes a multilinear regression analysis so as to reformulate a useful equation of peak flow calculation in the ungaged river sites. The equation has been reformulated by employing the multi-correlation of the characteristic factors and the point probability floods with a return period,50 and 100 years. The result of the study involves the following important point. It is found that the analysis of the characteristic factors inthe river basins, especially in the case of the. An Sung and Sab Gyo rivers, can produce more accurate estimates of the characteric values when employed multi-linear regression ana1yses rather than the method of simple linear regression analyses. In me case of the An Sung River, the peak flow can be better estimated by the employment of the multi-correlation of such factors as length(L), slope(S), drainage density(D), and shape factor(F). In the case of the Sab Gyo River, one more factor total length(L)-is added to the multi-conealtion SO as to produce more accurate results.