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기후변화협약 REDD+ 메커니즘의 이해와 향후 협상전망
석현덕(Hyun Deok Seok),윤범석(Beom Seok Yoon) 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
With an agreement on the introduction of a REDD+ mechanism in the Conference of the Parties(COP-15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC), REDD+ is expected to be one of the important mitigation actions against greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. However, in Korea, we lack materials and information on UNFCCC REDD+ mechanism, and so have difficulties in understanding the mechanism and negotiation transitions. Against this background, this study aims to consider the various issues discussed to construct the mechanism, forecast the negotiation results, and finally propose the ways for preparing international REDD+ mechanism. An international REDD+ mechanism needs to include flexible instruments that provide adequate, predictable, and sustainable resources to support REDD+ actions. The national circumstances of REDD+ countries are extremely diverse and policy incentives will have to respond to different phrases in the implementation of REDD+. Especially when it comes to international funding mechanism, there exists three approaches to meet the variety of needs of both developed and developing countries: REDD+/NAMA Register Model, COP-Mandated Model, and REDD+ Market Model. The REDD+/NAMA Register Model, which will be shown in an early stage of REDD+, includes the contents on the registration of bilateral and unilateral REDD+ actions and financial support in an internationally managed REDD+/NAMA register. The COP-Mandated Model is about the funding of REDD+ actions through a COP-mandated international fund. The REDD+ Market Model is related to the funding of REDD+ actions through approaches that account for tons of GHG reductions and are thus carbon-market compatible. As it was agreed that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be established as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention including REDD+ in the COP-15, the details on an international-level REDD+ financial mechanism will be discussed actively. The discussions for the introduction of a REDD+/NAMA Register Model will be soon pushed ahead in order to promote national REDD+ actions/supports, and the issues on the Market Model are raised continuously by developed countries such as the USA. The Korean government"s ways to cope with the UNFCCC REDD+ framework will be depend on the negotiation results about the developing-nation status of Korea and the REDD+ financial mechanism model. Therefore, we need to establish REDD+ strategies for each negotiation scenario and look into the negotiation situations continuously. Also, we need to build a REDD+ countries databases to find potential REDD+ performing countries and make chances to secure forest resources for REDD+ programs.
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유승직 ( Yoo Seung Jick ),윤범석 ( Yoon Beom Seok ) 연세대학교 법학연구원 2018 法學硏究 Vol.28 No.2
본 연구는 BAU 감축목표 방식이 갖는 의미를 파리협정 하에서 BAU 감축목표가 갖는 불확실한 요소가 무엇이며, 이를 개선하기 위한 대안과 관련한 국제적 논의를 살펴보고 우리나라의 온실가스 감축목표 설정에 대한 시사점을 살펴보고 있다. 파리협정이전에 논의 되거나 적용된 온실가스 배출량 전망과 재설정, 이에 대한 검토 등을 살펴본 결과 BAU 방식은 투명성(transparency) 이행을 위해서는 정보의 산출과 관리에 있어서 많은 부담을 가져올 수 있음을 알 수 있다. 또한 기후변화협상에서도 전 지구적인 온실가스 감축목표 이행의 확실성을 담보하기 위해서 BAU 목표를 채택한 국가들에게는 득보다 실이 많을 수 있도록 제도가 설계될 가능성도 높은 것을 알 수 있다. 기후변화협상에 있어서도 부속서 I 국가들이 우리나라와 같이 상당한 수준의 BAU 설정과 인벤토리 관리 능력을 보유한 국가들에 대해서는 절대량 목표 방식으로 유도하는 차원에서 BAU에 대한 엄격한 관리를 요구할 가능성이 높다. 예로서 파리협정 세부 이행과 관련한 지침협상에서는 이미 BAU 방식의 목표의 불확실성을 해소하고 신뢰성을 높이고자, NDCs 이행기간에 걸쳐 추가적인 보고와 관리를 요구하고 있다. BAU 방식 국가들에게는 절대량 방식의 감축목표에는 요구되지 않는 많은 자료와 가정, 구체적인 방법론의 내용이 요구된다. 결국 BAU 방식을 채택한 국가들에게 기술적, 행정적 부담을 가중시키는 결과를 가져올 것이다. 이상의 논의를 살펴본 결과 국제사회에서의 우리나라의 위치, 우리나라 경제의 선진국 경제 형태로의 진입, 온실가스 감축에 대한 신뢰성 확보와 유효성 증대를 위하여 현재와 같은 BAU 방식에서 절대량 목표 방식으로 전환하는 것이 필요하다. 선제적 대응차원에서도 온실가스 감축목표 설정방식에 대한 불필요한 논의보다는 우리나라의 온실가스 감축수준에 대한 실질적인 논의에 집중할 수 있도록 절대량 방식으로의 빠른 전환이 바람직하다. This paper investigates the nature of BAU based GHGs emission reduction targets in the context of Paris Agreement and the requirements of the information submitted to justify the targets in NDCs to secure their implementations without reference to the international politics in climate change negotiations and their domestic impacts. Based upon the survey on the outcomes of the international negotiations on and applications of BAU projections, updates of projections, and evaluations of the GHGs reductions from BAU projections before Paris Agreement. it is more likely to generate a lot of disadvantages to the Parties with BAU based GHGs reduction targets than the Parties with absolute targets to meet the transparency provisons in Paris Agreement. Annex I countries and international experts are more likely to ask some countries which have outstanding capacity to produce BAU emission projections and to provide GHGs inventories with high quality including Korea to switch the type of national GHGs emission reduction target from BAU based type to absolute ones. The climate change negotiations under UNFCCC already get involved in reduction of the uncertainty and improvement of the credibility of BAU based targets, by introducing regulations to report and monitor the progress during implementation periods. Lots of data, detailed information on the assumptions and methodologies applied in making GHGs emission projections will be asked to the Parties with BAU based target to submit, which are not required to the Parties with absolute target. These regulations result in the increase in the technical and administrative burdens of the Parties with BAU based targets. I In conclusion, we propose to adopt absolute GHGs reduction target instead of BAU based target to lower the cost and the burden of implementation and management of the targets, if we give full consideration to the international position in global community, characteristics of the Korean economy, the need to secure the creditability and effectiveness of the domestic GHGs policies and measures. It is also proposed to have Korean government pay more attention upon the stringency of the emission reduction targets than to the types of the reduction targets.
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