러시아 극동지역의 산업구조 변화 분석 -기반산업의 비교우위 변화를 중심으로-

염동호(Yeom, Dong Ho) 한국슬라브유라시아학회 2020 슬라브학보 Vol.35 No.2

This study analyzes the changes in industrial structure and comparative advantage, focusing on the basic industries of the Putin’s 3rd Far Eastern Federal District. For this, As an indicator of quantitative change, GLQ(GRDP Location Quotient), ELQ(Number of Employees Location Quotient) and a an indicator of qualitative change, LP(Quotient of labor productivity) were used. As a result of analysis, the Base industry of the Russian Federation’s provinces was analyzed as concentrated fisheries, mining, transportation and telecommunications. There were no major perturbations in the industrial structure. However, the proportion of GRDP of Base industry as a whole compared to the regional and the federal areas decreased. As a result, it was analyzed that Putin’s 3rd Far East policy did not contribute significantly to the growth of the Far East’s Base industry. The first reason is that the small domestic market in the Far East and the limitations of the infrastructure are pointed out from the industrial point of view. And in the policy aspect, it is pointed out that the policy response to deterioration of external conditions after the economic sanctions against Russia and the lack of sufficient financial resources to promote the domestic market are pointed out.

크림반도 병합 이후 카자흐스탄의 무역구조 변화 - 외부충격의 영향을 중심으로 -

염동호 ( Dong-ho Yeom ),김영진 ( Young-jin Kim ) 한국외국어대학교 러시아연구소 2024 슬라브연구 Vol.40 No.2

본 연구의 목적은 러시아의 크림반도 병합 이후 대외정세 변화가 중앙아시아 주요국 가운데 하나인 카자흐스탄의 교역에 미친 영향 및 그에 따른 무역구조 변화를 분석하는 것이다. 2013년 러시아의 크림반도 병합, 2022년 우크라이나 침공 등으로 대러제재가 강화되면서 러시아의 중앙아시아에 대한 영향력이 약화되고, 그 한편으로 중국의 영향력이 확대되고 있다. 이에 2011년부터 2023년의 시기를 대상으로 카자흐스탄의 무역구조에 나타난 변화를 무역특화 지수(TSI)와 산업 내 무역지수(GL)를 기술수준 및 가공단계별로 분석하고, 이를 토대로 러시아 및 중국과의 교역관계 변화를 분석하였다. 그 결과 카자흐스탄 무역구조는 자원집약재와 1차산품의 비중이 높고 최종재의 비중이 낮은 전형적인 자원수출국의 특징을 가진다. 카자흐스탄은 러시아의 크림반도 병합과 글로벌 경기침체에도 지속적으로 무역 성장세를 유지하였으나 크림반도 병합과 우크라이나 침공 이후 성장세가 둔화되었다. 이 시기 대러시아 무역비중 및 성장률은 축소하고 중국과의 교역량과 성장률은 확대된 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 대러 의존도 축소와 대중 의존도 확대를 시사한다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of changes in the external situation after Russia’s annexation of Crimea on the trade of Kazakhstan, one of the major Central Asian countries, and the resulting changes in the trade structure. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2013 and its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have weakened Russia’s influence in Central Asia and increased China’s influence. Therefore, from 2011 to 2023, the changes in Kazakhstan’s trade structure were analyzed by the Trade Specialization Index (TSI) and the Intra-Industry Trade Index (GL) by technology level and processing stage, and based on this, the changes in trade relations with Russia and China were analyzed. As a result, Kazakhstan’s trade structure was found to be characterized by a typical resource-exporting country with a high proportion of resource-intensive materials and primary products and a low proportion of final goods. Kazakhstan maintained its trade growth despite Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the global economic downturn, but after the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine, the volume of trade stopped growing and turned into a decline, and the volume of trade with China and the growth rate were confirmed to have increased during this period. This is interpreted as suggesting a reduced dependence on Russia and an increased dependence on China.

러-일 관계의 협력과 갈등 메커니즘

염동호 ( Yeom Dong-ho ) 서울대학교 러시아연구소 2021 러시아연구 Vol.31 No.1

Russia-Japan relations have improved partially through economic cooperation until now. However, the ‘Kuril Islands dispute,’ a key factor in the cooperation and conflict between the two countries, could not be resolved despite repeated summit meetings and agreements. This study summarizes the development process of the Northern Territory issue by period and analyzes Japan’s strategy from a mutually reciprocal perspective. As a result of categorizing and reviewing ① Unilateral conflict model ② Limited bilateral cooperation model ③ Alliance priority bilateral cooperation model ➃ Functional multilateral cooperation model, it was analyzed that Japan’s strategy has been in parallel with the ‘limited bilateral cooperation & alliance priority bilateral cooperation’ model. This is interpreted as a structural factor that the territorial issue is unilaterally subordinated to Russia in the context of the constant existence of the “US-Japan alliance” and the “US-Russian confrontation.” There is also a dilemma of the purpose and means of territorial issues and economic cooperation. As long as the internal and external environment does not change in the future, Japan is highly likely to approach territorial issues through economic cooperation. Therefore, in order to find a clue to the solution to the territorial problem, it is necessary to change the perception of Russia and to choose a mutually beneficial strategy between the leaders of both countries.

EAEU 경제통합에 관한 연구 - OCA의 편익·비용 관점에서

염동호 ( Dong-ho Yeom ) 한국유라시아학회 2019 Acta Eurasiatica Vol.10 No.1

본 연구는 EAEU의 5개국을 대상으로 OCA이론에 근거한 경제적 편익·비용을 도출하여 경제적 통합 정도를 분석하고 있다. 아직 관세동맹 단계에 머물러 있는 EAEU를 대상으로 통화통합을 논의하는 것은 시기상조라는 지적이 있을 수 있다. 그러나 경제통합의 최종단계가 통화통합이라는 점을 고려할 때 최종단계의 지표를 토대로 현 단계의 통합 정도를 측정하는 것은 의미 있는 작업이라고 할 수 있다. 분석 결과 벨라루스와 키르기스스탄이 편익 상태에 있는 것으로 확인되었으며, EAEU 출범 효과 분석에서는 벨라루스, 카자흐스탄, 러시아가 편익이 개선된 것으로 확인되었다. 이 가운데 순편익을 지속적으로 확보한 나라는 벨라루스와 키르기스스탄으로 나타났다. This study analyzed the economic integration by deriving the economic benefits and costs based on OCA theory for five countries of EAEU. It is premature to discuss for establishment of the currency union with EAEU, which is still in the tariff alliance stage. However, considering that the final stage of economic integration is currency union, it is meaningful to measure the degree of integration at the present stage based on the final stage indicator. As a result, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan are in a state of net benefit. In the launch analysis, it was found that the benefits of Belarus and Kazaksutan were improved. As a result, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan are in a state of benefit. In the EAEU start-up analysis, benefits from Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia have been improved. Among these, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan have consistently maintained net benefits both in the past and the latter.

러-일관계 협력과 갈등 메커니즘의 게임이론적 분석 - 북방 4도서 영유권 분쟁과 경제협력을 중심으로 -

염동호 ( Dong-ho Yeom ) 한국외국어대학교 러시아연구소 2022 슬라브연구 Vol.38 No.2

본 연구는 1990년 이후부터 2020년까지 러·일 관계 변화의 메커니즘을 게임이론을 활용해 분석하고 있다. 영토협상을 중심으로 러·일 관계의 변화와 그 특징을 정리하고 PD(Prisoner’s Dilemma)게임과 BS(Battle of the Sexes)게임을 적용하여 분석하였다. 러시아가 경제협력에 적극적일 때 영토협상이 진전된 반면, 일본이 영토문제에 강경자세로 임할 때는 중단되거나 퇴보하였다. 게임이론을 활용한 분석에서는 핵심요인에 선호순서가 존재하며, 선호와 게임 주체의 파워가 결과를 좌우한다는 것을 확인하였다. PD게임에서는 파레토 우위인 영토협상을 선택해야 하지만, 유일한 내쉬균형(Nash equilibrium)이자 파레토 열위인 경제협력을 선택하였다. PD게임의 한계를 고려하여 양자의 ‘선호’와 ‘보수’ 차이를 고려한 BS 게임에서도 두 종류의 내쉬균형 가운데 아젠다 형성 등에서 상대적으로 우위에 있는 러시아가 선호하는 경제협력으로 선호가 통일되는 것을 확인하였다. This study analyzes the mechanism of change in Russia-Japan relations from 1990 to 2020 using game theory. The changes and characteristics of Russia-Japan relations were summarized with a focus on territorial negotiations, and PD and BS games were applied and analyzed. When Russia was active in economic cooperation, territorial negotiations progressed, but when Japan took a hardline stance on territorial issues, it stopped or retreated. In the analysis using game theory, it was confirmed that preference order exists in key factors, and preference and the power of the game subject influence the results. In the PD game, since the common issue between the two countries is territorial negotiations, territorial negotiations that are Pareto superior must be selected, but economic cooperation that is the only Nash equilibrium and Pareto inferior is selected. appear. In the BS game, which takes into account the difference between the preferences and remuneration of the two countries, it was confirmed that among the two types of Nash equilibrium, the preferences were unified through economic cooperation favored by Russia, which has a comparative advantage in agenda formation.

러시아의 극동개발전략과 동북아시아: 한·중·일의 대러 협력 특징과 방향성을 중심으로

염동호 ( Yeom Dong-ho ),이현태 ( Lee Hyun-tai ) 서울대학교 러시아연구소 2024 러시아연구 Vol.34 No.1

This study analyses the internal and external factors influencing Russia's Far East strategy, the industrial structure of the Far East and the characteristics and limitations of its cooperation with the three countries of China, South Korea and Japan, and examines the future direction of its cooperation in the Far East. Russia's Far East strategy was initially influenced by domestic factors, but since Putin's third term it has become more influenced by external factors. As Russia's cooperation with South Korea and Japan in the Far East has been slowed down by the recent sanctions against Russia, Russia has pursued a shift towards increasing the level of cooperation with China and expanding its cooperation to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. As a result, development cooperation between Russia and China in the Far East is deepening. However, Russia is also wary of excessive Chinese influence in the region, so the demand for Far East cooperation with South Korea and Japan remains high. China and Japan have adopted a pragmatic approach to Far East cooperation by separating political and economic demands, while South Korea tends to limit economic cooperation depending on the political and diplomatic situation.

동아시아의 소득충격과 리스크쉐어링 효과

김재인 ( Jae In Kim ),염동호 ( Dong Ho Yeom ),김영준 ( Young Jun Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2013 生産性論集 Vol.27 No.3

This study analyzes the risk sharing in terms of consumption smoothing through the integration of financial markets. We analyze the effects of international financial integration on the risk sharing of country-specific idiosyncratic shocks to income in the East Asian Region. The results show that risk sharing was improved since 1997 when there was a financial crisis in Asia and the risk sharing effect has been enlarged. The risk sharing in the East Asian economy, however, is found to be still limited. Therefore, enhancing the level of financial market integration in East Asia requires the establishment of a mechanism to cope with the cases of unique impact for currency integration.

간장 허혈 및 재관류시 Vitamin C 가 간장 기능에 미치는 영향

김순애(Soon Ae Kim),서민영(Min Young Seo),염동호(Dong Ho Yeom),조태순(Tai Soon Cho),이선미(Sun Mee Lee) 한국응용약물학회 1995 Biomolecules & Therapeutics(구 응용약물학회지) Vol.3 No.4

This study was done to investigate the effect of vitamin C on hepatic biliary and microsomal function during ischemia and reperfusion. Rats were treated with vitamin C(20, 100, 400, 1600 ㎎/㎏) or with vehicle(saline) and then subjected to 60 min no-flow hepatic ischemia in vivo. Control animals were time-matched sham ischemic animals. After 1 or 5 hr of reperfusion, bile was collected, blood was obtained from the abdominal aorta, and liver microsomes were isolated. In vehicle-treated ischemic rats, serum ALT and AST levels peaked at 5 hr and were significantly attenuated by vitamin C 20 ㎎/㎏ and 100 ㎎/㎏ treatment. Similarly, hepatic wet weight-to-dry weight ratio was decreased in the vehicle-treated ischemic group. Vitamin C 20 ㎎/㎏ and 100 ㎎/㎏ treatment minimized the increase in this ratio. Lipid peroxidation was elevated in vehicle-treated ischemic group, but this elevation was also inhibited by vitamin C 20 ㎎/㎏ and 100 ㎎/㎏ treatment. Bile flow and cholate output, but not bilirubin output, were markedly decreased by ischemia/reperfusion. Vitamin C 20 ㎎/㎏ and 100㎎/㎏ treatment restored the secretion but vitamin C 1600 ㎎/㎏ reduced the cholate output. Cytochrome P-450 content was decreased by ischemia/reperfusion and restored by vitamin C 20 ㎎/㎏ and 100 ㎎/㎏ treatment to the level of sham operated group but decreased by vitamin C 1600 ㎎/㎏. Aminopyrine N-demethylase activity was decreased and aniline p-hydroxylase activity was increased by ischemia/reperfusion. The changes in the activities of aminopyrine were prevented by vitamin C 20 ㎎/㎏ and 100 ㎎/㎏ treatment, but not by 400 ㎎/㎏ and 1600 ㎎/㎏ treatment. Our findings suggest that ischemia/reperfusion diminishes hepatic secretory functions as well as microsomal drug metabolizing systems, small doses(20, 100 ㎎/㎏) of vitamin C significantly ameliorates and large doses(400, 1600 ㎎/㎏) of vitamin C aggravated these ischemia/reperfusion-induced changes.