심연국가(Deep State)와 이집트 아랍민주공화국 : 아랍의 봄 이후 이집트 군부의 지대추구체제 연구

백승훈(Seunghoon Paik) 한국이슬람학회 2021 한국이슬람학회논총 Vol.31 No.3

After the Arab Spring, the Egyptian Armed Forces(EAF) emerged as an actor that surpassed the influence of the previous military in the political and economic aspects of Egyptian society. Egypt s military currently dominates a key sector of the informal economy called the shadow economy or parallel economy. The Egyptian military has been involved in not only daily necessities such as food, diary products and flour, but also raw material industries such as cement, fertilizer, oil, mineral, and social overhead capital(SOC) projects such as ports, piers, roads, water supply and sewerage, electricity, and telecommunications. Therefore, in this paper, theoretical framework of deep state and rentierism will be applied to examine the role of Egyptian military not only in El-Sisi government but as a whole history of Arab republic of Egypt.

Revisiting the US nonproliferation Strategy on Iran: Pursuit of Mutual Agreement through Coercion

백승훈(Paik, Seunghoon) 한국중동학회 2019 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.40 No.2

이란 핵에 관한 미국의 비확산 전략은 강압외교를 핵심으로 한다. 특히 냉전의 종식 이후 단극 패권국가의 지위를 획득한 미국은 클린턴 행정부, 부시 행정부, 오바마 행정부를 거쳐 트럼프 행정부까지 경제 제제와 미군의 강력한 ‘확전우세’(Escalation Dominance)를 바탕으로 하는 군사적 압박을 양 축으로, 비확산 정책을 입안하고 있다. 냉전 이후 모든 미 행정부들은 정도의 차이는 있을지언정, 이란에 대하여 강압외교 정책을 취하며 이란 핵 확산 문제를 다루어 왔는데, 20여년의의 강압 정책에도 이란의 핵 확산 문제는 악화되었다. 특히 부시 행정부는 보다 효과적인 강압을 위하여 P5+1이라는, 유럽과 중국의 참여를 유도하여 양자 압박에서 다자간의 압박외교 틀을 구축하였으나 이란의 비핵화에는 결국 실패하였다. 오바마 행정부의 경우, 이전 행정부와 유사한 강압외교 전략을 취했지만, 강압외교이론의 보상적 유인책 (Compensative Incentive)을 적절히 이용하여 2015 JCPoA를 이뤄냈다. 그러나 결국 트럼프 행정부에 이르러 합의안이 전면적으로 파기되며 이란의 핵 확산 문제가 다시금 국제 문제화 된 상황이다. 대부분의 위기에서 강압은 일방적으로 작용하지 않는다. 강압을 받는 행위자도 역으로 강압을 활용할 수 있는 자원을 갖고 있으며 강압은 양방향으로 작용한다. 이를 상호적 강압이라 하는데, 상호적 강압이론은 강압국의 강압과 상대방의 역강압을 동등한 비중으로 다루면서 강압의 상호성을 분석하며, 행위자의 강압과 피강압의 양 측면을 분석한다. 이란 핵 프로그램 역시 미국의 강압외교에 대응하며 개발되었다는 점에서 상호적 강압이론의 대표적 예라 할 수 있다. 그러나 냉전이후 미국의 비확산 강압정책은 상호 강압에 대한 이해가 상당히 부족한 상태에서 입안되었다. 따라서 본 논문은 외교적 강압의 이론에 기초한 분석틀을 통해 미국 행정부, 특히 오바마 행정부가 추동한 강력한 대 이란 강압외교였던 2012년 석유금수제제 조치 당시의 진행 과정을 통해 강압외교의 작동 원리를 설명 한다. 이를 통해 현재 오바마 행정부가 만들어놓은 ‘2차 제제‘ (Secondary Sanction)틀을이용하여 ’최대 압력‘ (Maximum Pressure) 강압외교 정책을 이란의 비핵화 전략으로 하는 트럼프 행정부에 대한 이해의 단초를 제시할 것이다.

‘아랍의 봄’ 이후 이데올로기로서의 폭력적 극단 정치 이슬람

백승훈(Seunghoon Paik) 한국이슬람학회 2022 한국이슬람학회논총 Vol.32 No.2

The impact that Islamic State(IS) had on the international community was huge. As if denying the achievements of the “War on Terror” led by the United States, a more sophisticated violent extremist force such as IS emerged after the Arab Spring. Although IS lost its base and was annihilated in Syria and Iraq, the collapse of IS does not mean the end of violent extremism which abused the ideology of political Islam. In deed, some of the Muslim groups have been using the concept of ‘Umma’ as a counter ideology from European imperialism in the late 19th century to the some of the current US Middle East policy. However, being a member of the Muslim ‘Umma’ did not mean exclusion from other social affiliations, such as tribes or ethnicities, nor did it create conflicts with other identities. In this context, the ‘Umma’ should not be viewed as part of any rigid hierarchical identity. Thus, this study deconstructs the one-sided interpretation of 'Dawah' used by violent extremist and seeks a possibility of it as a social integration mechanism.

다변량 왜정규분포를 활용한 간결한 군집 가중 모형

백승훈(Seunghoon Paik),오상곤(Sangkon Oh),서병태(Byungtae Seo) 한국데이터정보과학회 2023 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.34 No.2

기후변화, 탄소중립 그리고 중동

백승훈(Seunghoon Paik),이주성(Joosong LEE) 한국이슬람학회 2022 한국이슬람학회논총 Vol.32 No.3

The MENA region is the most vulnerable region to global climate change. Temperature rise, desertification and coastline changes caused by climate change are highly likely to have a profound impact on the lives of the people of MENA countries. As a result, many MENA countries are agile in the international movement to slow the pace of climate change. Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil producers, announced in October 2021 an ambitious plan to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2060 by actively accepting the recommendations of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report. Saudi Arabia's declaration of Net Zero as a rentier state, in which the country is operated with a rent obtained from oil, caused a sensation in the international community. However, unlike Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)'s carbon-neutral announcement, Saudi Arabia's plans to invest in fossil fuels including oil and gas and expand infrastructure are still in progress. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how the transitional transformation in the MENA region will develop in the future by looking at Saudi Arabia's carbon-neutral policy.

아랍의 봄 이후 극단 폭력주의 재도래에 관한 연구

백승훈(Paik, Seunghoon) 한국중동학회 2021 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.42 No.1

After the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the violent extremism has emerged as a top agenda of international politics. The low-intensity and small-scale disputes of non-state actors have created unprecedented conflicts which made international community in puzzle. Traditionally, the analysis of international relations and IR theory were centered on state actors and its creation of multilateral dynamics. However, the characteristic of fragile state in the Middle East and North Africa has shown that the non-state actor such as militias and religious group posses higher operational capabilities than the state military institution. Especially after the Arab Spring, as the insurgency and counter insurgency took place in MENA countries, national leaders were dependent on militias rather than regular military forces to confront the anti-government movements or groups. Therefore, this study focuses on violent extremism which has consolidated its power through the non-state actors during that 10 years of the Middle East political unrest. It will analyze the influence of violent extremism, violent extremist organization and its restoration process. In addition, the paramilitary organizations and militias in the MENA region will be examined to prospect their future.

중동 지역 내 미중 전략경쟁구조 분석 : 아브라함 협정과 일대일로를 중심으로

이창주(Changju Lee),백승훈(Seunghoon Paik) 한국이슬람학회 2021 한국이슬람학회논총 Vol.31 No.1

This paper analyzes the structure of strategic competition between the US and China over the Middle East. First of all, China is expanding the scope of its cooperation with the middle east based on energy resources, industrial cooperation, and infrastructure construction through the Belt and the Road Initiative(BRI). As China is forming a combined maritime network with the Middle East by connecting West Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea, the US influence has continued to decrease with in the region. The US dependence on Middle Eastern energy resources have waned after the Shale Revolution which had lead to a certain degree of power vacuum in the Middle East. However, as the BRI successfully expands its connectivity in the Middle value chain of its own. By utilizing tradition alliance as an axis, the state of Israel, the US is trying to reengage as a Security –Economic patron in the region. Therefore, along with the analysis on the structure of strategic competition between the US and China over the Middle East, this paper examines whether the Red Sea initiative in the Middle East can be linked to China s BRI and the US s Abraham Accords. Furthermore, this paper seeks to provide the comprehensive perspective on the possible dynamics of BRI, the Abraham Accord, and the Red Sea Initiative in the future.

미국의 ‘지정학적 코드’와 대중동 정책: 한국 외교에 대한 함의

이주성 ( Joosong Lee ),백승훈 ( Seunghoon Paik ) 한국외국어대학교 중동연구소 2021 중동연구 Vol.40 No.1

South Korea is one of the major Middle Power that leads the international agendas and asserts influence to the states in the Middle East. However, Korea is rather a partner or a cooperative state with them, who is not strong enough to take the leader’s role in those relations. Above all, Korea’s foreign policy towards the Middle East is strongly influenced by international circumstances and, to an extent, bound to the United States’ foreign policy towards the Middle East. The main purpose of this research is to figure out the context and the dynamics that drive the changes in the U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East, and by doing so, we can draw out an implication to our foreign policy towards the region. In order to aptly and flexibly respond to those ‘changes,’ it is imperative to figure out the background and the fundamental factors that lie underneath the ‘constant’ variable. For this purpose, the concept of ‘Geopolitical Code’ will be applied as an analytical tool. The foreign policy of the U.S. is based on the Geopolitical Code, which functions as a justification and supportive instrument when represented towards its own people and the international community. First of all, through some literature reviews, we will identify which theory or context other scholars used to analyze the U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East. By doing so, we will verify the strength of the Geopolitical Code approach. Then, the theoretical background will be given about the concept and the structure of the Geopolitical Code. With that knowledge, we will then move on to analyze the Geopolitical Codes of the former U.S. Administrations in the 21^st century (Bush, Obama, and Trump). Then we will conclude with some implications that can be drawn for Korea in devising its own foreign policy towards the Middle East.