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박준일,유희정,이배호,Park, Jun-Il,Yu, Hui-Jeong,Lee, Bae-Ho 한국수자원학회 1984 물과 미래(한국수자원학회지) Vol.17 No.4
An attempt is made to present a method of prediction for typhoons apporaching the Korean-peninsula. The method is based upon the Bayesian theorem to improve the observed (prior) probabilities of typhoons approaching the Korean sea area incorporating conditional probability. A total of 248 typhoons is collected and analyzed to establish prior probability and conditional probability according to the defined procedure. The typhoons used are those which encompassed the western Pacific area to which the Korean-peninsula is subjected. The results of examplary computations suggest that the presented method is promising for predicting approaching typhoons.
유희정,박준일,이배호,Yu, Hui-Jeong,Park, Jun-Il,Lee, Bae-Ho 한국수자원학회 1983 물과 미래(한국수자원학회지) Vol.16 No.4
In an attempt to study the frequency and characteristics of typhoons which hit the Korean Peninsula a period of 40 years from 1946 through 1979 was covered to collect necessary data with respect to occurrence of typhoons and their influence Typhoons which occurred between 1959 and 1980 were grouped according to their treking routes and strengths for detailed analyses. The results are summarized as follow; 1. The average annual occurrence of typhoons in the western pacific ocean was found to be 28, only two of which attacked the Korean Peninsula. 2. The annual probabilities of typhoons attacking were 0.925 for one or more, 0.700 for twice or more and 0.323 for there times or moro. 3. The monthly probabilities were found to be 0.228 in July, 0.434 in August and 0.194 in September. 4. An half of the typhoons which hit the Korean Pennisula passed through the western coast and the rest through the southern and eastern coasts in similan proportions. 5. The western coast is hit most frequently in July and less afterwords, visa-vis the southern and the eastern coast. 6. The minimum SLP averaged 983 mb and ordered by the treking routes as S<E<WE<W1<CWE. In the group average SLP, W1 and CWE types are higher 20mb than S, E or WE types. 7. Heavy storms esperienced in the Penisula are found to have accompanied the WE and S types during the months of August and September.
김경훈(Gyeong-hoon Kim),박준일(Jun-il Park),신찬기(Chan-ki Shin) 대한환경위생공학회 2008 대한환경위생공학회지 Vol.23 No.4
The non-linear least squares model((NLSM) has long been the standard technique used by hydrologists for constructing rating curves. The reasons for its adaptation are vague, and its appropriateness as a method of describing discharge measurement uncertainty has not been well investigated. It is shown in this paper that the classical method of NLSM can model only a very limited class of variance heterogeneity. Furthermore, this lack of flexibility often leads to unaccounted heteroscedasticity, resulting in dubious values for the rating curve parameters and estimated discharge. By introducing a heteroscedastic maximum likelihood model(HMLM), the variance heterogeneity is treated more generally. The maximum likelihood model stabilises the variance better than the NLSM approach, and thus is a more robust and appropriate way to fit a rating curve to a set of discharge measurements.