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김명석(Kim Myeongseok) 한국분석철학회 2016 철학적 분석 Vol.0 No.36
잠자는 미인 문제는 우리가 위치 정보를 잃어버렸을 때 우리의 믿음직함을 어떻게 셈해야 하는 것이 옳은지 묻고 있다. 이 문제의 올바른 답변이 1/2이라는 것을 논증하기 위해 원래 잠자는 미인 문제를 다음과 같이 바꾸었다. 일요일에 던진 동전이 앞면이 나올 경우, 월요일과 화요일 가운데 마구잡이로 하루를 골라 그 날만 깨운다. 물론 동전이 앞면이 나오면 미인을 오직 하루만 깨우고, 뒷면이 나오면 그를 이틀 깨우는 설정은 전혀 바꾸지 않았다. 이렇게 실험 설정을 바꾸면, 이미 앞면이 나왔다는 정보는 지금이 월요일이라는 가설과 지금이 화요일이라는 가설 가운데 어느 한 쪽을 편들지 않는다. 또한 이미 뒷면이 나왔다는 정보는 지금이 월요일이라는 가설과 지금이 화요일이라는 가설 가운데 어느 한 쪽을 편들지 않는다. 미인에게 남은 마지막 일은 지금이 월요일이라는 정보가 앞면이 나왔다는 가설과 뒷면이 나왔다는 가설 가운데 어느 쪽을 편드는지 갈피를 잡는 일이다. 그 정보가 두 가설들 가운데 어느 쪽도 편들지 않는다면, 잠자는 미인 문제의 올바른 답변은 1/2이라고 결론내릴 수 있다. The Sleeping Beauty problem asks how our credence should be calculated when we has not self-locating information. In order to argue that the right answer of this problem is 1/2, we change the original problem as follows: If the coin came up heads on Sunday night, Beauty is awaken only on one day picked at random among Monday and Tuesday. Of course if the coin came up tails on Sunday night, Beauty is awaken both Monday and Tuesday. After changing the setting of the experiment, information that now is Monday is not biased toward the hypothesis the coin came up heads or the hypothesis the coin came up tails. Furthermore information that the coin came up heads is not biased toward the hypothesis now is Monday or the hypothesis now is Tuesday. In addition, information that the coin came up tails is not biased toward the hypothesis now is Monday or the hypothesis now is Tuesday. From these symmetric evidences, we can argue that the right answer of the Sleeping Beauty problem is 1/2.
김명석 ( Myeongseok Kim ) 한국논리학회 2016 論理硏究 Vol.19 No.3
If we learn that ‘Mrs Lee has two children and at least one of them is a daughter`, what is our credence that her two children are all girls? Obviously it is 1/3. By assuming some other obvious theses it seem to be argued that our credence is 1/2. Also by just supposing we learn trivial information about the future, it seem to be argued that we must change our credence 1/3 into 1/2. However all of these arguments are fallacious, cannot be sound. When using the conditionalization rule to evaluate conformation of a hypothesis by an evidence, or to estimate credence change by information intake, there are some points to keep in mind. We must examine whether relevant information was given through a random procedure or a biased procedure. If someone with full information releases to us particular partial information, an observation, a testimony, an evidence selected intentionally by him, which means the particular partial information was not given by chance, or was not given accidentally or naturally to us, then the conditionalization rule should be employed very cautiously or restrictedly.
김명석(Kim, MyeongSeok),천종훈(Cheon, Jong Hun),정대영(Jung, DaeYoung),김재홍(Kim, JaeHong) 한국신재생에너지학회 2011 한국신재생에너지학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2011 No.05
Since Gratzel and co-workers developed a new type of solar cell based on the nanocrystalline TiO2 electrode, dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have attracted considerable attention on account of their high solar energy-to-conversion efficiencies (11%), their easy manufacturing process with low cost production compared to conventional p-n junction solar cells. The mechanism of DSSC is based on the injection of electrons from the photoexcited dye into the conduction band of nanocrystalline TiO2. The oxidized dye is reduced by the hole injection process from either the hole counter or electrolyte. Thus, the electronic structures, such as HOMO, LUMO, and HOMO-LUMO gap, of dye molecule in DSSC are deeply related to the electron transfer by photoexcitation and redox potential. To date, high performance and good stability of DSSC based on Ru-dyes as a photosensitizer had been widely addressed in the literatures. DSSC with Ru-bipyridyl complexes (N3 and N719), and the black ruthenium dye have achieved power conversion efficiencies up to 11.2% and 10.4%, respectively. However, the Ru-dyes are facing the problem of manufacturing costs and environmental issues. In order to obtain even cheaper photosensitizers for DSSC, metal-free organic photosensitizers are strongly desired. Metal-free organic dyes offer superior molar extinction coefficients, low cost, and a diversity of molecular structures, compared to conventional Ru-dyes. Recently, novel photosensitizers such as coumarin, merocyanine, cyanine, indoline, hemicyanine, triphenylamine, dialkylaniline, bis(dimethylfluorenyl)-aminophenyl, phenothiazine, tetrahydroquinoline, and carbazole based dyes have achieved solar-to-electrical power conversion efficiencies up to 5-9%. On the other hand, organic dye molecules have large {pi}-conjugated planner structures which would bring out strong molecular stacking in their solid-state and poor solubility in their media. It was well known that the molecular stacking of organic dyes could reduce the electron transfer pathway in opto-electronic devices, significantly. In this paper, we have studied on synthesis and characterization of dendritic organic dyes with different number of electron acceptor/anchoring moieties in the end of dendrimer. The photovoltaic performances and the incident photon-to-current (IPCE) of these dyes were measured to evaluate the effects of the dendritic strucuture on the open-circuit voltage and the short-circuit current.
김명석(Kim, MyeongSeok),정대영(Jung, DaeYoung),김재홍(Kim, JaeHong) 한국신재생에너지학회 2010 한국신재생에너지학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.06
Since Gratzel and co-workers developed a new type of solar cell based on the nanocrystalline TiO₂ electrode, dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have attracted considerable attention on account of their high solar energy-to-conversion efficiencies (11%), their easy manufacturing process with low cost production compared to conventional p-n junction solar cells. The mechanism of DSSC is based on the injection of electrons from the photoexcited dye into the conduction band of nanocrystalline TiO₂. The oxidized dye is reduced by the hole injection process from either the hole counter or electrolyte. Thus, the electronic structures, such as HOMO, LUMO, and HOMO-LUMO gap, of dye molecule in DSSC are deeply related to the electron transfer by photoexcitation and redox potential. To date, high performance and good stability of DSSC based on Ru-dyes as a photosensitizer had been widely addressed in the literatures. DSSC with Ru-bipyridyl complexes (N3 and N719), and the black ruthenium dye have achieved power conversion efficiencies up to 11.2% and 10.4%, respectively. However, the Ru-dyes are facing the problem of manufacturing costs and environmental issues. In order to obtain even cheaper photosensitizers for DSSC, metal-free organic photosensitizers are strongly desired. Metal-free organic dyes offer superior molar extinction coefficients, low cost, and a diversity of molecular structures, compared to conventional Ru-dyes. Recently, novel photosensitizers such as coumarin, merocyanine, cyanine, indoline, hemicyanine, triphenylamine, dialkylaniline, bis(dimethylfluorenyl)-aminophenyl, phenothiazine, tetrahydroquinoline, and carbazole based dyes have achieved solar-to-electrical power conversion efficiencies up to 5-9%. On the other hand, organic dye molecules have large {pi}-conjugated planner structures which would bring out strong molecular stacking in their solid-state and poor solubility in their media. It was well known that the molecular stacking of organic dyes could reduce the electron transfer pathway in opto-electronic devices, significantly. In this paper, we have studied on synthesis and characterization of dendritic organic dyes with different number of electron acceptor/anchoring moieties in the end of dendrimer. The photovoltaic performances and the incident photon-to-current (IPCE) of these dyes were measured to evaluate the effects of the dendritic strucuture on the open-circuit voltage and the short-circuit current.
김명석 ( Myeongseok Kim ) 한국과학철학회 2017 과학철학 Vol.20 No.2
잠자는 미인 문제에서 잠에서 깨어난 미인은 지금이 월요일인지 화요일인지 모른다. 지금이 언제인지 모르는 상황은 여기가 어디인지 모르는 상황으로 바꿀 수 있다. 또한 그 상황은 자신이 누구인지 모르는 상황으로 바꿀 수 있다. 우리는 지금이 언제이며, 여기가 어디이며, 내가 누구인지 모르는 상황에서도 여전히 의식을 가질 수 있다. `나는 지금 여기에 깨어 있다` 또는 `나는 지금 여기서 의식을 갖고 있다`라는 정보만으로 우리는 자기 시간 정보, 자기 공간 정보, 자기 자아 정보를 재설정하게 된다. 믿음을 갖는 인식 주체는 주관의 시간, 공간, 자아 정보를 바탕으로 상호주관 및 객관의 자기 위치 정보를 가늠한다. 우리는 이 글에서 자기 위치 정보를 잃었을 때 또는 다시 얻었을 때주체의 믿음직함에 어떤 변화가 있을지 따져 보고자 한다. 월요일의 자아와 월요일 일을 기억하지 못하는 화요일의 자아는, 둘 다 존재하지만 서로 만날 수 없는 두 자아와 다를 바 없다. 이 논의를 거쳐 잠자는 미인 문제의 마지막 풀이를 제안한다. 우리 논증이 튼튼하다면 이 문제의 올바른 답은 1/2이다. Beauty who wakes up in so-called Sleeping Beauty Problem does not know whether it is Monday or Tuesday. The situation that we do not know when it is now can be transformed to a situation that we do not know where it is here. Also that situation can be transformed to a situation that we do not know who we are. We can still have consciousness even when we do not know where we are, when we are, or who we are. We can reset the temporal information, spatial information, and the information of self by the information “I am awake here now” or “I am now conscious here”. The subject conjectures the intersubjective or the objective self-location information based on the subjective self-location information. In this paper, we will try to examine what changes will happen to the credence when she has lost her location information. After this discussion, we propose a final solution to Sleeping Beauty Problem. If our argument is sound, the correct answer to this problem is 1/2.
김명석 ( Myeongseok Kim ) 한국논리학회 2017 論理硏究 Vol.20 No.1
In modern cosmology, it is controversial whether the existence of human consciousness can be used as evidence to support the hypothesis that many parallel universes are actualized. In this paper, we want to explore the nature of self-consciousness information that I am awake now. Consider the following experiment participating Al and Bob. We throw a fair coin on Sunday. If the coin lands heads we wake up just one of Al and Bob on Monday. If the coin lands tails we wake up both of Al and Bob. On Monday, at least one of Al and Bob will wake up, to what degree ought they believe that the outcome of the coin toss is heads? We will argue that the correct answer to this question is 1/3. To this end, we will argue the awakened person`s information that “I am awake” is given to himself through a random procedure.
김명석 ( Myeongseok Kim ) 한국과학철학회 2016 과학철학 Vol.19 No.3
엘가와 루이스는, 잠자는 미인 문제에서 동전을 던지는 시점이 일요일 저녁이든 월요일 저녁이든, 이 시점이 미인의 답변을 달라지게 하지 않는다고 주장한다. 학자들이 이 주제를 이미 많이 논의했지만, 동전을 월요일 저녁에 던지는 설정에서 이 문제의 올바른 답변이 무엇인지는 놀랍게도 그다지 탐구하지 않았다. 이 논문은 이런 설정에서 미인의 올바른 답을 찾는 이른바 `잠자는 미인의 아직 문제`를 풀고자 한다. 동전을 아직 던지지 않았다는 사실을 미인이 알게 되면, 앞으로 던질 멀쩡한 동전이 앞면이 나올 것이라고 믿는 그의 믿음직함은 당연히 1/2이어야 한다. 이러한 직관을 “아직의 원리”라고 부를 수 있으며, 이것은 엘가의 직관이기도 하다. 하지만 아직의 원리로부터 따라 나오는 결과들은 루이스의 예상과 다르고, 심지어 엘가의 예상과도 다르다. 우리 셈에 따르면 미인이 어느 날 깨어났을 때 앞면이 나올 그의 믿음직함은 1/2보다 작아야 한다. 우리는 그 값이 어림잡아 2/5라고 셈했다. 잠자는 미인의 문제는 조건화 규칙, 루이스의 `주요 원칙`, 반 프라센의 `반성 원리` 등을 의심하게 하는 반례가 될 수 없다. 그 대신 우리는 믿음직함 셈에서 `아직`과 `이미`가 다른 결과를 낳을 수도 있다는 오래된 교훈을 다시금 확인한다. A. Elga and D. Lewis insisted that sleeping beauty`s credence upon awakening in the coin`s landing heads ought to be the same regardless of whether we use the following two methods. Method Sunday: first tossing the coin and then waking sleeping beauty up either once or twice depending on the outcome. Method Monday: first waking her up once, and then tossing the coin to determine whether to wake her up a second time. This paper pursues the right answer to the sleeping beauty problem taken Method Monday. According to our answer, sleeping beauty`s credence in the coin`s landing heads ought to be less than 1/2, approximately 2/5. However, the sleeping beauty problem cannot be a counterexample against the principal principle of Lewis.
김명석 ( Myeongseok Kim ) 한국논리학회 2019 論理硏究 Vol.22 No.1
Gott, Carter, Leslie, Bostrom and so on, as Descartes did, have made the evidence that is “I am here as an observer” to support many other beliefs. Bostrom and others who studied observation selection effects are missing two points. First, the self-consciousness information of the ones who just came up is distinct from that of the ones who have awoken. The awoken ‘I’ can trace back by memory to the past, but the ‘I’ who just came up can not. Second, when calculating credence, we must distinguish the ones in the possible worlds from the ones in the actual worlds. An estimate of credence where only one possible world is actualized among all possible worlds, differs fundamentally from that where all possible worlds are actualized. Keeping these two points in mind, we have explored what is the nature of the self-consciousness information of the one who just came up. We examine in depth the two human embryos thought experiment.
김명석 ( Myeongseok Kim ) 한국과학철학회 2016 과학철학 Vol.19 No.1
잠자는 미녀 문제의 교훈으로서, 제프리의 조건화 규칙을 수정해야 한다는 견해부터 루이스의 주요 원리를 수정해야 한다는 견해까지 다양한 논제들이 여태 제안되었다. 이러한 제안들을 거부하면서 이 논문은 다음과 같은 점들을 주장한다. 첫째, 확률 또는 믿음직함을 매기는 주체는 자기 나름의 시공간을 재설정한다. 통상의 경우 주체의 시공간은 경험을 통해 상호주관 시공간 또는 공공 시공간과 손쉽게 동기화되지만, 잠자는 미녀의 경우는 그렇지 않다. 둘째, 잠자는 미녀가 깨어난 후 정보를 얻는 것이 아니라 정보를 잃는데, 그는 그 자신의 시공간과 공공 시공간을 동기화하는 데 필요한 정보를 잃어버린다. 셋째, 기억을 잊거나 정보를 잃는 경우, 조건화 규칙을 사용해서는 안 된다. 조건화 규칙은 기존 정보가 유지되는 한에서만 사용해야 한다. 따라서 일요일에서 월요일을 거칠 때 미녀의 믿음직함이 어떻게 변하는지를 알기 위해 조건화 규칙을 적용하는 것은 옳지 않다. 넷째, ``나``, ``지금``, ``여기`` 등과 같은 지표가 포함된 문장을 다루기 위해, 별도의 조건화 규칙을 고안할 필요가 없고, 대신 지표의 사용을 최소화하여 기존 조건화 규칙을 그대로 사용해도 무방하다. 다섯째, 미녀의 답변이 1/3이어야 한다는 견해는 거의 일어날 수 없는 기적 같은 일이 늘 있는 하찮은 증거에 의해 입증된다는 귀결을 품고 있다. As lessons of the Sleeping Beauty problem various theses have been proposed, from the view that we must modify Jeffrey`s conditionalization to the view that we need to restrict the principal principle of Lewis. This paper, while rejecting such proposals, asserts the followings. Firstly, subject who has the probability function or the credence function resets her own space and time. While, in common case, subject`s spacetime is easily synchronized with intersubjective spacetime, or public spacetime, with the help of experiences, but not in the case of Sleeping Beauty. Secondly, when Sleeping Beauty awakes she does not obtain but loses some information, such as the information that is required to synchronize her own subjective spacetime with public one. Thirdly, if Sleeping Beauty loses information, she should not use Bayesian conditionalization. Fourthly, thirder`s calculation such as Elga`s has strange implication that a miraculous hypothesis can be confirmed by a very trivial evidence.