김정일시대 북한의 대남 군사협상 행태 = (The) North Korea's behavior in military negotiations with the South Korea under the Kim Jeong-Il regime

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A study is made on the two Koreas’ Defense Ministry-level, General-level, and working-level military talks which are representative inter-Korean military talks in Kim Jeong-il era, focusing on the North Korea’s behavior in military negotiations in 2000 and thereafter. A new study method is used apart from the old one in approach to, and analysis of, the North Korea’s behavior in military talks. As a part of such method, the key text is selected according to the North Korea’s strategic cultural approaches, and then analysis is made on the cases of “talk-out” presented in the key text to analyze the negotiation behaviors under the Kim Jeong-il regime by comparison. Such method is expected to analyze the unreasonable, unpredictable North Korea’s negotiating behaviors into the reasonable and predictable form.

Through such process, this research tries to assume what is the true purpose of the North Korea’s negotiations. It is considered that such analysis process will pave the way for further successful future-oriented military negotiations in the long run. This study focuses only on new behaviors in military negotiations, not on the existing general behaviors of the North Korea. The practical two Koreas’ military talks include the Inter-Korean Summit talk held on June 15th, 2000, and the talk between the two Koreas’ Defense Ministers, General-level talks and working-level talks between the two Koreas after 2000. This research covers military talks between the two Koreas from 2000 to 2010. In the aspect of research method, first of all, the study procedure is to construct a hypothetical model, and make a practical historical verification of military negotiation cases in the Kim Jeong-il era through theoretical demonstrations.

The study deducts military negotiation strategy and military negotiation tactics from the objectives of the North Korea’s military policies and makes correlation analysis on them. Detailed method of research divides the military talks in Kim Jeong-il era into Defense Ministry-level talks, General-level talks, and Working-level talks, and analysis is made to deduct negotiation tactics for each talk. Comparison is made between the military negotiation tactics deducted in such way and the tactics shown in the North Korea’s strategy culture to prove that the North Korea’s military negotiation behaviors in the Kim Jeong-il era is the same as that appears in the North Korea’s strategy culture. The North Korean negotiators applied their negotiation method after analyzing and deducting from the analysis of the military negotiation cases shown in “With the Century”, Kim Il-seong’s memoirs and then by deducting ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’ and comparing it with the cases of the military negotiation in Kim Jeong-il regime.

The whole contents of this paper are composed of six (6) chapters. Chapter 1 reviews the purpose of study and the performance and limit of the preceding researches, and then suggests necessity of analysis of new behavior in military negotiation. Chapter 2 first examines the concept and theory of negotiation, which is the theoretical foundation necessary for the development of this paper; and approaches the theory of the communists and North Korea’s negotiations, and studies on the theory of the North Korea’s strategic culture, and its negotiation behaviors to analyze the military negotiations systematically. Chapter 3 suggests ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-style Negotiation Model’ and analysis standards by analyzing the successful and failed cases of the military talk-out cases recalled in “With the Century” in Kim Il-seong’s memoirs in order to present the North Korea’s negotiation model. Chapter 4 suggests the background and the entire process of military negotiations in the era of Kim Jeong-il and then continues to make an analysis by applying the Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model. Chapter 5 describes the feature sand prospect of the Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model. Finally, Chapter 6 Conclusion comprehensively reviews the characteristics of the military negotiations under the Kim Jeong-il’s regime and suggests a strategic method to induce some changes thereof.

The core details of this paper will include: In order to prove the hypotheses proposed in the Method of Study, first of all, the writer analyze all the cases of talks-out in With the Century in the Kim Il-seong’s memoirs, the key text of the North Korea’s strategic culture, and then analyze ‘Talk-Out with O Eui-seong’, a successful negotiation case and ‘Talk-Out with Ko Yi Her’, a failed negotiation case out of negotiations with form and value as negotiation. Anti-Japan Guerilla- Style Negotiation Model is suggested based on the result of analysis of talk-out cases. Forth at model, the view of negotiation, negotiation culture, negotiation strategy and negotiation tactics have been proposed. This research suggests such Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model as the negotiation standards and makes detailed analysis of each of the military negotiations to deduct negotiation tactics by negotiation step. The study has proved that such the military negotiation tactics in the regime of Kim, Jeong-il is the same as ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’ shown in With the Century, the key text of the North Korea’s strategic culture.

The military negotiation to achieve the objective of military policy, the core element of the analysis standards of the North Korea’s military negotiation behavior will be embodied as the military strategy and military negotiation tactics in the objective of military policy in the background of the initial negotiation view and negotiation culture. First, it must be noted that the North Korea’s military strategic culture exists within the most important military negotiation strategy that determines the North Korea’s military negotiation behavior of each sector. In other words, actions of ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’ are reflected in every negotiation between the two Koreas. ‘Military security of exchange and cooperation project to ensure economic support’, ‘military activities to maintain and ensure the maintenance of the regime’, military trust building and nuclear weapon / missile development’, etc. which are negotiation strategy for each sector previously deducted are analyzed by linking them with the strategic culture. As a result, the followings can be verified: First, Kim Il-seong’s ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’ basically exists within the North Korea’s negotiation strategy for each sector, and such negotiation strategy will repeatedly appear in any inter-Korea military negotiations. Second, the North Korea’s negotiation view and negotiation culture can be found within the ‘talk-out’ standards in the era of anti-Japan guerilla unit. Third, it can be verified that the military negotiation tactics under the regime of Kim, Jeong-il was processed in the same way as ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’. Especially, it is true that the negotiation tactics for each step of the preparation step, initial step, middle step and final step of military negotiation is the reproduction of ‘Talk-Out with O Eui-seong’, or ‘Talk-Out with Ko Yi Her’.

First, the viewpoint and culture of North Korea style negotiation come from the scope of the talk-out standards applied by Kim Il-seong in the era of anti-Japan guerilla unit, and it is a important point that determine the behavior of negotiation in the era of Kim Jung-Il. Second, the North Korea style negotiation strategy is also come from the ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’ same as the viewpoint and culture of North Korea style negotiation, Third, it can be found that in the preparation step, the North makes a favorable negotiation environment and selects a favorable negotiation subject in advance, in the initial step, the North takes negotiation initiative and suggests negotiation principle, in the middle step, they argue against and press on its counterpart and change the negotiation subject, and in the final and execution step, they break down the talk and violate the agreements between the negotiation parties. Such tactics is the same as the tactics for each step found in the ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’. In other words, it is the negotiation tactics formed by the characteristics of the North Korea style negotiation strategy. Fourth, there are three (3) types of the major features of ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’ including 1) brinksmanship tactics to maintain the regime, 2) united front tactics to secure sympathetic parties, and 3) taking negotiation initiative in an unpredictable manner of acts, distorting the facts, making a false accusation against the South, its counterpart, and saving their face. It is judged that such the features will be surely reproduced again in the future military negotiations. Due to, however, economic crisis in the North Korea now, if military negotiation to ensure military security of inter-Korea’s economic cooperation is executed, there may be a factor of change in the North Korea’s negotiation model. Accurately catching the features of ‘Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model’‘is expected to give many implications in understanding the essence of military negotiation behaviors.

In conclusion, the military negotiation under the Kim Jeong-il regime was influenced by only within the scope of the talk-out standards applied by Kim Il-seong in the era of anti-Japan guerilla unit when Korea was Japan’s colony, and the North Koreans are making actions within such the recognition frame. And their military negotiation behavior starts based on such the frame or standards. Kim Il-seong’s experiences in anti-Japan guerilla unit in the past under the control of Japan seem to tell the North Korea’s negotiators the negotiation model how relatively weak nations could hold a dominant position in negotiations by using unpredictable tactics.
In the other hand, the most important feature of this research has significance in that, in consideration of the inherent feature of strategic culture towards the North Korea’s military negotiation behaviors, analysis has been made on the inter-Korean military negotiations in a new perspective. In other words, analysis has been made on the military negotiation behaviors by making use of With the Century in the Kim Il-seong’s memoirs through which we can look at the North Korea’s strategic culture. This study is limited to some extent, but talk-out behaviors recalled in With the Century in the Kim Il-seong’s memoirs have been analyzed and compared with the military negotiation behaviors in the era of Kim Jeong-il to prove that the military negotiations of the two eras are the same. This kind of attempt has significance in that the military negotiations in the eras of Kim Jeong-il and Kim Jeong-eun can be compared and Kim Jeong-eun’s military negotiation behaviors predicted. In order to take the advantageous position first in negotiations with the North Korea, the South Korean decision makers for military negotiation policy must completely grasp the North Korea’s Anti-Japan Guerilla-Style Negotiation Model before participating in the negotiations with the North. In such way the South Korean negotiators will be able to achieve the purpose of the negotiations with the North saving the North Korean negotiators’ face.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서 론 = 1
• 제1절 연구목적 = 1
• 제2절 연구범위와 방법 = 4
• 제3절 선행연구 검토 = 12
• 제2장 협상에 관한 이론 = 22
• 제1절 협상개념 = 22
• 제2절 사회주의 및 북한의 협상이론 = 27
• 제3절 북한의 전략문화와 협상행태 결정요인 = 35
• 제3장 북한의 항일유격대식 협상모델과 분석틀 = 56
• 제1절 ‘세기와 더불어’에 나타난 전략문화와 군사협상 = 56
• 제2절 항일유격대식 협상모델 = 63
• 제3절 항일유격대식 협상모델을 적용한 분석틀 = 111
• 제4장 남북 군사협상에 대한 항일유격대식 협상모델의 적용 = 115
• 제1절 김정일시대 남북 군사협상 전개과정 = 115
• 1. 국방장관회담 = 115
• 2. 장성급군사회담 = 123
• 3. 군사실무회담 = 137
• 제2절 항일유격대식 협상모델의 적용 = 148
• 1. 국방장관회담 = 150
• 2. 장성급군사회담 = 176
• 3. 군사실무회담 = 195
• 제5장 항일유격대식 군사협상의 특징과 전망 = 215
• 제1절 항일유격대식 협상의 특징 = 216
• 1. 체제유지를 위한 벼랑끝 전략 = 216
• 2. 동조세력 확보를 위한 통일전선전술 = 218
• 3. 협상승리를 위한 행동방식 = 222
• 가. 협상의 주도권 장악하기 = 222
• 나. 사실왜곡과 뒤집어씌우기 = 228
• 다. 체면살리기 = 231
• 제2절 항일유격대식 협상의 지속과 변화 = 236
• 1. 항일유격대식 협상의 지속요인 = 236
• 2. 항일유격대식 협상의 변화요인 = 240
• 제6장 결 론 = 247
• 참고문헌 = 251
• 영문요약 = 277